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View Full Version : A smart bet?

TheDragon
12-18-2003, 11:31 PM
Tonight while I was practicing spot shots, another player came up to me and proposed a bet. It was right before the finals of the tournament which I was in, so I only had time to do it once. He gave me 2 to 1 odds(\$10 of his to \$5 of mine) against me making 10 spot shots in a row. I worked him down to 8 in a row, and figuring since \$5 couldn't hurt me and I was playing well, I took it. I made the shots and won \$10, but I'm not so sure how often I could do that. I'm about a B player. Last night I made 35 in a row, but other times I've missed more than I've made. Was that a smart bet?

-TheDragon

Cueless Joey
12-18-2003, 11:34 PM
Bob Meucci wrote the pros make around 85% of their spot shots.

Popcorn
12-18-2003, 11:40 PM
I know a guy that has made over a 1000 in a row and if you bet him on 97 out of a 100 you are in a trap. This is no fantasy, I have spotted balls for him and he makes 200 and 300 in a row like nothing.

Cueless Joey
12-18-2003, 11:53 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Popcorn:</font><hr> I know a guy that has made over a 1000 in a row and if you bet him on 97 out of a 100 you are in a trap. This is no fantasy, I have spotted balls for him and he makes 200 and 300 in a row like nothing. <hr /></blockquote>
On a bar table I would think.

Popcorn
12-19-2003, 12:08 AM
4 1/2 by 9 shooting from spot to spot. Cue ball on the spot and the object on the other spot. He slow rolls them in and after he has made 40 or 50 you begin to feel like he may never miss.

Cueless Joey
12-19-2003, 12:17 AM
That's amazing.

JohnBarton
12-19-2003, 12:33 AM
If you would have bet \$5 even money on making eight then of course getting 2 to 1 was a smart bet. Think of it this way - he is basically giving you 3 to 1 chances to stay at least even. If you lose two times in a row and do it on the third try you are even. So basically you can go all night getting three tries to one on this bet and never be in danger if you can string several eights.

John

Fasteddy7
12-19-2003, 03:20 PM
In Byrnes standard book of pool there is a spotshot and a generic formula. Just a half-ball hit and proper placement of the cue. I wonder if they use this set up to make so many in a row?

Chris Cass
12-19-2003, 04:31 PM
Hi Drayton,

I'm glad you won but I think it's a dumb bet. One thing you should never bet on and that's playing yourself. JMHO

Regards,

C.C.~~seen it all and the odds are against you. Not to disagree with John but the pressure is on you and none on him. Would you take that bet at say \$500. ? The casinos have true odds in craps. They don't count the luck factor and they're in business. The carnivals also have a 4 ball game. If you have to bet, bet on something your opponent has to fade too. Personally, I think your too young to be gambling. That's not my business though. From one friend to another.

PQQLK9
12-19-2003, 05:05 PM
Tap...Tap...Tap I heard that.

Chris Cass
12-19-2003, 05:30 PM

Regards,

C.C.~~Nick' fan

12-19-2003, 06:07 PM
Would that guy be "The Hat"...an ex-horseman from South Florida?

Voodoo~~~~witnessed "The Hat" make about 275 just screwin' around!!

JohnBarton
12-19-2003, 06:43 PM
Well Chris it seems as though I am disagreeing with you across a couple threads. :-) Not personal.

Wagering on whether one person can do something is very commonplace. I agree that the pressure to perform is on the person actually doing the thing. Getting odds though will give the player more chances to beat the task.

This lesson doesn't come from me. In Buddy Hall's book a story is related about Gary Bright and Greg Stevens. Gary is a world class coin lager and he had already busted Greg with lagging propositions.

From the book: "Greg Stevens was back with a new bankroll and a new proposition. He took a piece of chalk and drew a straight line across the pool table. Then, he laid a paper match against the line. Marking a place for Gary to stand about 20 feet away, he explained, "I'll give you three tries to land the coin within the width of the match." The proposition attracted plenty of side bets. Gary didn't think he had a good bet at that distance.

This time it was Buddy's turn to make Gary wise. Buddy explained, "He's giving you three chances, you've got the nuts! If you win one toss out of six, the worst you can do is break even. This time, Greg has gone out of his way to put himself in a trap."

After Gary broke Greg, and everybody else in the house who bet against him, he saw the strength in getting three chances. He later sed that proposition on the road many times. It really was the nuts. He could stall and win that way. How is anyone going to beat a man who can 'park' the coin anywhere he wants to? With three tries, he was actually the favorite to put the coint ON the line. For Gary those odds took ALL the strain out of gambling." excerpted from Rags to Rifleman, page 102.

So my point is, if you can do the thing then getting odds is the nuts. IF you would bet something even whether you can do it consistently or not then getting odds is a smart bet, if you were going to bet anyway.

As for being too young, making the other guy do it to, or whatever, I don't know. All I know is that if I get odds and I can do it then I am going to bust somebody.

John
http://www.cuecaserepair.com

Keith Talent
12-19-2003, 06:49 PM
Nice job, Dragon. Good bet for you, maybe ... a donation for me. /ccboard/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Popcorn
12-19-2003, 07:52 PM
A guy named Kenny, from your neck of the woods for a few monthes of the year. I am not knocking him in any way, he has been in Billiard Digest and Pool and Billiard mag.

12-19-2003, 08:08 PM
I cant confirm it POP but I think "The Hat" has passed away...good guy and a monster spot-shooter!!

Voodoo~~~thinks he might know POPCORN

tateuts
12-19-2003, 08:48 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote JohnBarton:</font><hr> http://www.cuecaserepair.com
<hr /></blockquote>

John,

Chris

Sid_Vicious
12-19-2003, 10:06 PM
Yes it is...sid

Chris Cass
12-20-2003, 06:07 AM
Hi John,

You can disagree with me on any subject. I'm not offended in the least. It's not only your right but I respect your opinion.

The casino offers a simular bet. They'll give you 2-1 on the money to roll a 4 or 10 on the dice. There's 36 combinations on a pair of dice. There's 3 ways to roll a 4 or 10. They being 3-1, 1-3, and 2-2. You know what the 10 is already. These are true odds. They stay open 24-7 and have plenty of cash.

These storys about pool hall gambling are fun and exciting to read and hear about. Those things sell. Grady, and I like him has tons of good ones. The bottom line for me is, Drayton is I'm thinking like 14 by now. His Dad condones his gambling and that's his business, not mine.

The problem I have with it is, I've seen seniors that started with \$40. a week coming into the casino. Just for fun and to be with a great bunch of friends to play dice. I too love the game tons. It's the greatest rush there is. However the same guy after 4 yrs is coming in weekly still and his buy-ins are around \$600. I was lucky enough to be a pit boss for awhile and was able to pull up his win/loss stats on the puter. It wasn't pretty. We gladly gave him free buffets, room stays, cigars and most anything he wanted. He wasn't nowhere considered a whale. Not sure but I think he's addicted.

The problem with the bet being a smart one? Is it really smart to bet? Are any of these guys well off? Grady can tell ya he's a truely smart gambler. I myself love to gamble. I can't say it was never a problem. I just learned how to control it. I still need my fix every now and then and I try to look for an even bet. I don't care if I get the dead nuts either. LOL Fact is IMHO that there is no smart bet. It's an addiction your taking the gamble with regardless of the odds. That is hard for a grownup let alone a kid. A lot of the older ccbers know Drayton and want the very best for him like myself. He's a good kid but I see it coming.

I'll agree to disagree. /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,

C.C.

Chris Cass
12-20-2003, 06:18 AM
Hi John,

BTW, I just had Jamie Baracks looking for someone to repair his zipper on his JJustis case. I've printed the info and will get it to him asap.

/ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif,

C.C.

bluewolf
12-20-2003, 08:37 AM
\$5 does not sound like much. Whether it is good or bad depends on the personality. Some are prone to become addicted to gambling even if the bets start small. It is best to know yourself well and honestly.

Some people bet 1-5\$ on a game and never go any higher. They are just doing it to get their best game with a friend.

Others have a problems with addiction to the rush of action. I do not know dragon, but from what I have seen in his posts, I would have to agree with CC that Dragon should not gamble.

Laura

JimS
12-20-2003, 08:52 PM
Never been to no danged boat, not goin. I'm addictive. Everything I ever liked I got hooked on. The first time I go to the boat I come home a big winner sure as Santa is comin and the hook is set. Nope...not goin. Take CC's and my advice. Don't encourage gamblin, or drinkin, or smokin, or girls, or...wait...let me rephrase that....

Chris Cass
12-21-2003, 12:31 AM
Well Laura,

It's the mindset. You go in with the idea your going to lose and with the amount your going to throw away. \$5. is nothing however like Jim says, a lot depends on if your prone to a addictive behavior. I just think age and maturity should mean something. The Indian casinos you need to be 18. The some others are 21. The state laws there for a reason. /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,

C.C.~~bet he doesn't listen... /ccboard/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

bluewolf
12-21-2003, 09:45 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Chris Cass:</font><hr> Well Laura,

It's the mindset. You go in with the idea your going to lose and with the amount your going to throw away. \$5. is nothing however like Jim says, a lot depends on if your prone to a addictive behavior. I just think age and maturity should mean something. The Indian casinos you need to be 18. The some others are 21. The state laws there for a reason. /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,

C.C.~~bet he doesn't listen... /ccboard/images/graemlins/smirk.gif <hr /></blockquote>

Chris,

I had an addictive personality. I recognized this by age 18 so I did not gamble. I was afraid of the potentially addictive part.

But then, it took many more years to thouroughly understand myself. I think that many young people do not even know themselves well enough to KNOW that they have an addictive personality.

I was once so anti-gambling and am not as much that way even though I still do not gamble, but I still do believe it can be very dangerous to one who does not have thourough, not perfect, but just thourough understanding of themselves.

My son is 30, also has an addictive personality (not to drugs,just personality) and will not gamble ever, probably for the same reason I didnt.

Somewhere in my post lie in my opinion why I do not think Drayton should gamble and much is due to his age. Maybe my first message did not come across.

My dad gambled in vegas. He decided ahead of time how much money he was going to spend doing this and never exceeded this amount. He did not have an addictive personality,knew himself pretty well and never spent this money if it would result in not being able to pay bills or interfere with his saving schedule etc. It was like a vacation, so much for meals, lodging, planefare and so much for gambling, where if he went to the beach, he would have alloted a certain amount for light shopping etc.

I do not think very many people are like this, but if I could not be like him, I would not gamble. At 50, I have just gotten myself to the point where I might be able to play friends for a dollar, with the limit set at ten dollars or what I could afford, just like paying at the theater. It just has not happened.... /ccboard/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /ccboard/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Laura

Chris Cass
12-21-2003, 03:02 PM
Hi Laura,

Anything to an extreme isn't healthy. \$5. is just to make it interesting. That's ok, heck I like \$100. sets but believe me, I won't let it hurt my family. If it doesn't hurt anyone it's ok. You also have to keep in mind the amount doesn't matter. There's people with huge income and their recreational wagers might be someones annual salary. LOL As long as it doesn't hurt the home life or gets to the point Bruno's looking for ya. LOL

Regards,

C.C.