View Full Version : Russian War Analyst Pre-war predictions

11-07-2004, 06:25 AM
This is an interesting read. Looks like he got most of it right.


11-07-2004, 11:25 AM
Actually he was wrong on virtually every point.

the Pentagon buys from the military-industrial complex only those weapons that have been tested in conditions of real warfare and received a certificate of quality on the battlefield.<hr /></blockquote> Not true. I can name dozens, of not hundreds of systems that were inplemented without battlefield testing. Strykers, F-117, B-2, TLAM, JASSM, UAV's, etc.
Therefore they will totally annihilate the Iraqi army. Practically all Iraq servicemen will die...Since the Americans are planning to physically annihilate the Iraqi army, I reckon that at least 500,000 people will be killed. This will be a very bloody war...The US Army will enter a burning desert -- the Iraqis will certainly set fire to the oilfields -- <hr /></blockquote>The Iraqi army never confronted the coalition en masse. There were a few skirmishes , but mostly they just scattered instead. The oil fields were not set ablaze. [ QUOTE ]
I am confident that in the very first hours of the war the United States will also use new pulse bombs They are also called microwave bombs. The principle by which these weapons operate is as follows: an instantaneous discharge of electromagnetic radiation on the order of two megawatts. At a distance of 2-2.5 kilometers from the epicenter of the explosion the "microwaves" instantly put out of action all radioelectronic systems, communications and radar systems, all computers, radio receivers, and even hearing aids and heart pacemakers. All these things are destroyed by the meltdown method. Just imagine, a person's heart explodes!...<hr /></blockquote> Yeah, right. Where's the evidence that such a weapon even exists in the US inventory? Every media outlet at the time was speculating about this, kind of a "What surprises will the US have for us this time?" [ QUOTE ]
Since this war will be experimental for the United States, several new types of precision cruise missiles will be tested with a view to obtaining quality certificates. I believe attention will be devoted first and foremost to missile launches from submarines. The Americans are planning to make their submarine fleet the main launchpad.<hr /></blockquote>Missile launches from Submarines was a very small part of the initial campaign. Why would the US expose a submarine unnecessarily? Most CM's came from skimmers (AB Class Destroyers and Aegis Cruisers) and B-52's, and were standard Tomahawks (sea launched) or AGM-86's (air launched). The only cruise type missiles (ones with a sustainer phase) in US inventory are Tomahawks and Harpoons, the AGM-86C Conventional Air Launched Cruise Missile (CALCM) and a small number of Israeli Popeyes. The JASSM and ACM are under development, and are either in low rate initial production or in Initial Evaluation stages. [ QUOTE ]
I predict that Operation Shock And Awe will last not more than six weeks. The first period of the war -- the "shock" -- will last around 30 days. Some 400-500 sea- and air-based precision cruise missiles will be launched against targets in Iraq every 24 hours. During that month Iraq's troops and its economic potential will be annihilated. Anything that survives for any reason will be guaranteed destruction in the next two weeks. In the second stage -- "awe" -- the Americans will conduct a piloted version of a total cleanup of the territory. To this end the United States will use B-52 and B-2 Stealth bombers. In four hours of flight one Stealth is capable of detecting and destroying as many as 200 stationary or moving targets on the ground. The United States intends to use at least 16 B-2 bombers The Stealths will be in the air constantly, one replacing the other.<hr /></blockquote> I think the initial "shock" part lasted what, 6 days? There are only 21 B-2's in inventory. I seriously doubt that anywhere close to 16 were committed to the Iraq war. The US doesn't commit Strategic Assets like that. 4-8 is a more realistic number, if it was even that high. The US doesn't like to risk it's most expensive air asset if it's not necessary.

Frankly, this guy sounds like a typical cold war era Russian analyst. Lots of speculation, a good imagination wrt to "secret" weapons and such, but not much in the way of substance. Pretty typical of Russian (or any other)media.