Qtec
06-03-2006, 01:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
Like many Americans, I spent the evening of the 2004 election watching the returns on television and wondering how the exit polls, which predicted an overwhelming victory for John Kerry, had gotten it so wrong. By midnight, the official tallies showed a decisive lead for George Bush -- and the next day, lacking enough legal evidence to contest the results, Kerry conceded. Republicans derided anyone who expressed doubts about Bush's victory as nut cases in ''tinfoil hats,'' while the national media, with few exceptions, did little to question the validity of the election. The Washington Post immediately dismissed allegations of fraud as ''conspiracy theories,''(1) and The New York Times declared that ''there is no evidence of vote theft or errors on a large scale.''(2)
"But despite the media blackout, indications continued to emerge that something deeply troubling had taken place in 2004.
But what is most anomalous about the irregularities in 2004 was their decidedly partisan bent: Almost without exception they hurt John Kerry and benefited George Bush. After carefully examining the evidence, I've become convinced that the president's party mounted a massive, coordinated campaign to subvert the will of the people in 2004. Across the country, Republican election officials and party stalwarts employed a wide range of illegal and unethical tactics to fix the election. A review of the available data reveals that in Ohio alone, at least 357,000 voters, the overwhelming majority of them Democratic, were prevented from casting ballots or did not have their votes counted in 2004(12) -- more than enough to shift the results of an election decided by 118,601 votes.(13) (See Ohio's Missing Votes) In what may be the single most astounding fact from the election, one in every four Ohio citizens who registered to vote in 2004 showed up at the polls only to discover that they were not listed on the rolls, thanks to GOP efforts to stem the unprecedented flood of Democrats eager to cast ballots.(14) And that doesn?t even take into account the troubling evidence of outright fraud, which indicates that upwards of 80,000 votes for Kerry were counted instead for Bush. That alone is a swing of more than 160,000 votes -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.(15)
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen
<hr /></blockquote>
Will it happen in 2008? Will the GOP pull off another amazing victory?
According to the mathematicians, its IMPOSSIBLE for the exit polls to be so wrong. Its NEVER happened before.
[ QUOTE ]
Abstract
What is the Main Cause of the Discrepancies between the Official Election Results and the Exit Polls?
The exit pollster of record for the 2004 election was the Edison/Mitofsky1 consortium. Their national poll results projected a Kerry victory by 3.0%, whereas the official count had Bush winning by 2.5%.2
Several methods have been used to estimate the probability that the national exit poll results would be as different as they were from the national popular vote by random chance.
These estimates range from 1 in 16.5 million to 1 in 1,2403[ to the power of 2...Qtec]. No matter how one calculates it, the discrepancy cannot be attributed to
chance.
Edison/Mitofsky disavowed the results of their own poll, saying that the data cannot be construed as evidence that the official vote count was corrupted, and hypothesized that Kerry voters were more amenable to completing the poll questionnaire than Bush voters.
However, Edison/Mitofsky's own exit poll data does not support their theory that a higher exit poll response rate by Kerry voters accounted for the discrepancies between the exit polls and the presidential election results. Using Edison/Mitofsky’s data tables we demonstrate that the “reluctant Bush responder” hypothesis is implausible because it is inconsistent with the combination of high response rates and high discrepancy rates among the precincts with the highest percentage for Bush. <hr /></blockquote>
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
[ QUOTE ]
STACKING THE DECKS IN WARREN COUNTY
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
April 18, 2006
I
n my previous paper, entitled “Pick a Card, Any Card,” I set forth
compelling statistical and circumstantial evidence of election fraud in
Warren County, Ohio. Because the order in which the candidates’ names
appear on the ballot rotates from precinct to precinct, and because the
punch code at the bottom of the punch card ballots does not identify
the precinct, it would have been easy to take a number of ballots
punched for John Kerry and move them to a different precinct where they
would be counted as votes for George W. Bush.
Other Democratic candidates on the ballot would suffer collateral damage as the vote totals in their races would be reversed, but they could end up with more votes than Kerry. Issue One, the constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage, was not subject to ballot rotation, so gay-friendly Democrats whose ballots were switched would be counted as gay-friendly Republicans.
Analysis of 775 punch card ballots in Warren County Precinct 149
(MAS C WC AFS) indicates that this is exactly what happened. Kerry got 59 fewer votes than Ellen Connally, the losing Democratic candidate for Chief Justice; and Bush got 94 more votes than Issue One, which passed
overwhelmingly. Either Bush got 60.1% of the Connally voters, and 48.8% of the gay marriage supporters, or punch cards have been shuffled from another precinct. <hr /></blockquote>
Q
Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
Like many Americans, I spent the evening of the 2004 election watching the returns on television and wondering how the exit polls, which predicted an overwhelming victory for John Kerry, had gotten it so wrong. By midnight, the official tallies showed a decisive lead for George Bush -- and the next day, lacking enough legal evidence to contest the results, Kerry conceded. Republicans derided anyone who expressed doubts about Bush's victory as nut cases in ''tinfoil hats,'' while the national media, with few exceptions, did little to question the validity of the election. The Washington Post immediately dismissed allegations of fraud as ''conspiracy theories,''(1) and The New York Times declared that ''there is no evidence of vote theft or errors on a large scale.''(2)
"But despite the media blackout, indications continued to emerge that something deeply troubling had taken place in 2004.
But what is most anomalous about the irregularities in 2004 was their decidedly partisan bent: Almost without exception they hurt John Kerry and benefited George Bush. After carefully examining the evidence, I've become convinced that the president's party mounted a massive, coordinated campaign to subvert the will of the people in 2004. Across the country, Republican election officials and party stalwarts employed a wide range of illegal and unethical tactics to fix the election. A review of the available data reveals that in Ohio alone, at least 357,000 voters, the overwhelming majority of them Democratic, were prevented from casting ballots or did not have their votes counted in 2004(12) -- more than enough to shift the results of an election decided by 118,601 votes.(13) (See Ohio's Missing Votes) In what may be the single most astounding fact from the election, one in every four Ohio citizens who registered to vote in 2004 showed up at the polls only to discover that they were not listed on the rolls, thanks to GOP efforts to stem the unprecedented flood of Democrats eager to cast ballots.(14) And that doesn?t even take into account the troubling evidence of outright fraud, which indicates that upwards of 80,000 votes for Kerry were counted instead for Bush. That alone is a swing of more than 160,000 votes -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.(15)
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen
<hr /></blockquote>
Will it happen in 2008? Will the GOP pull off another amazing victory?
According to the mathematicians, its IMPOSSIBLE for the exit polls to be so wrong. Its NEVER happened before.
[ QUOTE ]
Abstract
What is the Main Cause of the Discrepancies between the Official Election Results and the Exit Polls?
The exit pollster of record for the 2004 election was the Edison/Mitofsky1 consortium. Their national poll results projected a Kerry victory by 3.0%, whereas the official count had Bush winning by 2.5%.2
Several methods have been used to estimate the probability that the national exit poll results would be as different as they were from the national popular vote by random chance.
These estimates range from 1 in 16.5 million to 1 in 1,2403[ to the power of 2...Qtec]. No matter how one calculates it, the discrepancy cannot be attributed to
chance.
Edison/Mitofsky disavowed the results of their own poll, saying that the data cannot be construed as evidence that the official vote count was corrupted, and hypothesized that Kerry voters were more amenable to completing the poll questionnaire than Bush voters.
However, Edison/Mitofsky's own exit poll data does not support their theory that a higher exit poll response rate by Kerry voters accounted for the discrepancies between the exit polls and the presidential election results. Using Edison/Mitofsky’s data tables we demonstrate that the “reluctant Bush responder” hypothesis is implausible because it is inconsistent with the combination of high response rates and high discrepancy rates among the precincts with the highest percentage for Bush. <hr /></blockquote>
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
[ QUOTE ]
STACKING THE DECKS IN WARREN COUNTY
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
April 18, 2006
I
n my previous paper, entitled “Pick a Card, Any Card,” I set forth
compelling statistical and circumstantial evidence of election fraud in
Warren County, Ohio. Because the order in which the candidates’ names
appear on the ballot rotates from precinct to precinct, and because the
punch code at the bottom of the punch card ballots does not identify
the precinct, it would have been easy to take a number of ballots
punched for John Kerry and move them to a different precinct where they
would be counted as votes for George W. Bush.
Other Democratic candidates on the ballot would suffer collateral damage as the vote totals in their races would be reversed, but they could end up with more votes than Kerry. Issue One, the constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage, was not subject to ballot rotation, so gay-friendly Democrats whose ballots were switched would be counted as gay-friendly Republicans.
Analysis of 775 punch card ballots in Warren County Precinct 149
(MAS C WC AFS) indicates that this is exactly what happened. Kerry got 59 fewer votes than Ellen Connally, the losing Democratic candidate for Chief Justice; and Bush got 94 more votes than Issue One, which passed
overwhelmingly. Either Bush got 60.1% of the Connally voters, and 48.8% of the gay marriage supporters, or punch cards have been shuffled from another precinct. <hr /></blockquote>
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