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View Full Version : Requiem for the Faith-based Greenback



SnakebyteXX
06-03-2006, 08:28 AM
Mike Whitney

June 2, 2006

The great dollar sell-off has begun in earnest, although to a large extent, it is being concealed from the public.

That’s okay. After all, wary currency traders have been expecting a dollar-slide for months but were nervous about the prospects of widespread panic. Everyone from Bill Gates to Paul Volcker has predicted that the current trade deficit of $800 billion (7% of GDP) is unsustainable and would result in a weaker dollar. So, it is only natural that China, Japan and other foreign nations that normally load up on greenbacks would begin to cut back on their purchases. The danger to the United States, however, is extreme. If the transition is not carried out skillfully, it could precipitate a run on the dollar and trigger economic pandemonium. No one wants to see the global-economic giant pirouetting through the ether in flames. By the same token, no one wants to be the last man holding onto stockpiles of scrip that are diminishing in value.

The delicacy of the situation explains the sudden appointment of Henry Paulson as Treasury Secretary. Paulson is a brainy insider who has the bone-fides to manage a very tricky "retreat" from the dollar. America’s economic future will depend heavily on his ability to steer the ship of state through troubled waters.

As we already noted, there was no doubt that China, Japan and others would eventually reduce their dollar-holdings as America’s debt continued to mount. What is surprising though, is that a sell off did not occur earlier when Bush enshrined his reckless tax cuts and profligate spending as "permanent". The administration’s commitment to live beyond its means has never been in doubt. The greenback will pay a heavy price for Bush’s lack of discipline.

Of course, Bush is not the main scoundrel in this morality play. The Federal Reserve has seriously undermined the currency by engineering one monetary-coup after another. Greenspan’s "cheap money" policy has produced massive equity bubbles that naturally appear whenever interest rates are absurdly low. When the stock market bubble crashed in the late 90s, millions of working class people lost their retirement and life savings overnight, while wealthy insiders walked away unscathed. Undaunted by the economic carnage he produced, Greenspan again lowered interest rates to a ridiculous 1% in 2001 which created a $9 trillion housing bubble, "the largest equity bubble of all time" (says "The Economist"). Now, as interest rates inch higher, the housing industry is lumbering towards the power-lines and certain death. The effects on the world economy are incalculable.

Under Greenspan, the money supply expanded at an unbelievable rate. "From 1982 to 1992, it went from a "modest" 8% year-on-year expansion. However, from 1992 to 2002 it moved into overdrive with the deregulation of global markets with a year-on-year expansion of more than 12%. Since the 2002 post 9/11 crash, the money supply has been expanding at greater than 15%"; more than doubling in less than a decade. ("Fiat and Credit" Nigel Maund)

Now there are signs that foreign lenders have had enough of the weakening currency and are reducing their stockpiles of greenbacks and dollar-denominated securities. The Gold Forecaster reports in its recent article "The US Dollar and its Prospects":

"Last month saw the U.K. and Caribbean Banks buy a disproportionately large amount of U.S. Treasury assets. It appears that this is part of an international dollar liquidity management program. If this is correct the two centers will buy even more from now on, as other foreigners reduce their purchases of the U.S.dollar."

This means that China and Japan have begun to reduce their purchases of US Treasuries but, surprisingly, some mysterious third party has begun to pick up the slack?

And, who would that be? Who is crazy enough to increase their dollar-holdings when everyone expects the dollar will decrease in value?

What appears to be taking place is the Bush administration or the Federal Reserve is actually purchasing its own debt to control the rate at which the dollar declines. It’s a good strategy, but it can’t last forever.

If the dollar began to nosedive, then central banks around the world will quickly ditch the dollar and ignite a global-economic firestorm. By purchasing its own debt, the US hopes to engineer a "soft landing" and maintain its status as the world’s "reserve currency".

As the world’s reserve currency, the Federal Reserve can simply print money which the rest of the world accepts as payment for goods and resources. There’s no better business on earth. As one admiring currency-trader said, "It’s like having a mint in your own backyard."

The system was put in place after the vast devastation of World War 2 and has made the Federal Reserve the de-facto steward of the global economic system. Nearly 70% of the reserves in foreign central banks are either dollars or dollar-denominated securities. This is as close to a monopoly as possible.

We are seeing the greatest fiat-money experiment in history. The awesome power of the greenback extends to all markets, and yet, is completely disconnected from the traditional means of measuring value, like the gold standard.

It’s clear that the Bush administration believes that the dollar will maintain its lofty perch if they are able to control the vast oil resources in the Middle East. Then, foreign countries would be forced to use the dollar, (despite its $8.4 trillion in debt) to purchase their oil. We should anticipate that the dollar’s value will be increasingly linked to oil, and that its future will depend to a large extent on the military’s success in pacifying Iraq. (and Iran) Needless to say, the results are far from certain.

But, even if the administration’s plans in the Middle East succeed, there’re stormy times ahead for the greenback. The US has reached an unsustainable level of debt in government, business and personal finances. Gigantic mortgages and credit card debt are nearly as striking as the nation’s mammoth trade deficits. The entire country is mired in swamp of red ink for which there is no easy remedy.

James Shepherd, President of JAS MTS Inc. puts it this way:

"A perfect storm is developing and much of this danger has to do with debt. …When a saturation point of debt and leverage is reached, even a minor dislocation can cause a dramatic collapse….Debtors are always punished more severely in a declining economy because, as activity subsides, they are less able to service their debt and the value of the assets that have collateralized are also falling. Once those that own real estate realize that their neighbors cannot service their mortgages and are forced to sell at almost any price, thereby driving down the perceived value of their own property, the conditions necessary for a full-fledged debt-driven meltdown will be in place… a severe recession - is about to sweep over the landscape and blow away those who are not prepared."

The predictions of Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, are equally sobering:

"There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets. Indeed, without policy changes, currency markets could become disorderly and generate spill-over effects, both political and financial." (Quotes form Dudley Baker, "Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World’s Financial Experts")

"Could the falling dollar lead to "political turmoil", as Buffet suggests?

The Organization for Economic Cooperation (O.E.C.D.) has joined skeptics at the IMF in predicting that the dollar will fall by 35% to 50% in order to balance current account deficits. These are modest predictions given the enormous amount of debt the US has accumulated in just the last 6 years. ($3 trillion) Consider how life for the average American will change when gas is $6 per gallon rather than $3; when groceries skyrocket to twice their normal price, and when life-savings are cut in half overnight.

The greenback is now facing its greatest challenge due to its massive account imbalances, reckless mismanagement, and erosion in confidence. The only way the dollar can slow its downward slide is by maintaining its stranglehold on the oil trade. Currently, oil is sold exclusively in dollars which allows the US to float trillions of greenbacks through the system without fear of them being cashed in the short term. Unfortunately, there’s rebellion among the vassals. Iran (5.4% daily world oil output) Venezuela (5.2% daily world oil output) and Russia (15.3% daily world oil output) are all threatening to abandon the dollar in their oil transactions which would send hundreds of billions of dollars back to the US and plunge the country headlong into a deep recession. If this mutiny succeeds, the dollar will vanish in a poof of black smoke.

No More M-3

The Bush administration and their co-conspirators at the Federal Reserve have added to the suspicion surrounding the dollar by removing all the reliable data on its value. In late March, 2006 the Fed ceased publishing the M-3, the indicator of how many dollars are in circulation. That doesn’t mean they stopped calculating it for themselves; only that the public is prevented from knowing what is going on. Eventually this lack of transparency will be disastrous for the dollar, as the use of money is predicated on confidence. By making their activities as opaque as possible, the Federal Reserve is just adding to the nervousness in the markets and a loss of faith in the economy. America’s biggest lenders in Europe and Asia are now expected to calculate the real value of the dollar for themselves, because the statistical information they need has been purposely removed from the public record.

That does not inspire confidence.

How long will countries loan money to a nation that takes a "trust me" attitude, especially since no US government has ever been more widely distrusted than the Bush administration. The removal of the M-3 may seem like a clever, short-term idea to disguise the machinations of the Fed, but over time it will be seen as a costly mistake.

Paulson to the Rescue

Newly-appointed Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been given the impossible task of closing ranks with the Federal Reserve and micro-managing an "orderly devaluation" of the dollar. The fear is that a "sudden disorderly adjustment" will precipitate a run on the dollar; leaving markets in a swoon and sending the dollar through the floor. Regrettably, there are no easy choices; the dollar is going down. The accumulated weight of unfunded tax cuts, extravagant military expenditures, personal debt, and global trade imbalances have taken a wrecking-ball to the greenback and left little room for hope. Paulson’s job is to turn the dollar’s demise into a "controlled demolition" rather than a full-system meltdown.

web page (http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m23691&l=i&size=1&hd=0)

Drop1
06-03-2006, 11:33 AM
Thats right,and don't foget a the Yalta meetings in 1946, The United States Agreed to the dollar as the currency for world trade. So we have to print enough dollars so Countries can Trade with one another. You can't open a letter of credit in pesos to buy goods from Japan,and Mexico won't accept a letter of credit using Japanese Yen. It has to be dollars for world trade. The world will continue to support the United States,and buy more dollars.Simple as goes the United States,so goes China,and Japan, so relax,and charge it /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

cushioncrawler
06-03-2006, 05:45 PM
I reckon that there are 2 types of economics -- Smart -- and Stupid -- western economics is Stupid.

I reckon that there are 2 types of Stupid economics -- Ordinary-Stupid, where someone's (or some country'z) loss is uzually someone's (or country'z) gain -- and there is Super-Stupid, where it iz very possible (likely actually) for lossez all round -- the USA (and everyone else) haz allwayz been faithfull to Super-Stupid.

Qtec
06-03-2006, 08:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It’s clear that the Bush administration believes that the dollar will maintain its lofty perch if they are able to control the vast oil resources in the Middle East. Then, foreign countries would be forced to use the dollar, (despite its $8.4 trillion in debt) to purchase their oil. <font color="blue"> Saddam changed from $ to Euros and a few months later the US attacked. </font color> We should anticipate that the dollar’s value will be increasingly linked to oil, and that its future will depend to a large extent on the military’s success in pacifying Iraq. <font color="blue"> It is directly linked to oil. </font color> (and Iran) Needless to say, the results are far from certain <hr /></blockquote>

The only reason countries need $ is to buy oil! Iraq has huge oil deposits and Iran has plans to open its own oil exchange and will trade in other currencies. One country has already been invaded and the heat is on the other. Coincidence?

Gabber

Fran Crimi
06-04-2006, 04:31 AM
OMG! What a horribly propagandist website! No wonder people are getting virus-infected e-mails from them.

SnakebyteXX
06-04-2006, 07:23 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr> OMG! What a horribly propagandist website! No wonder people are getting virus-infected e-mails from them. <hr /></blockquote>

Sorry Fran, when I didn't see the Fox News Logo I assumed it was safe... ;-)

Thanks for the heads up.

Snake

Fran Crimi
06-04-2006, 07:51 AM
Here's another article from your lovely website.



Iraqi Resistance Report for events of Tuesday, 30 May 2006.
Translated and/or compiled by Muhammad Abu Nasr, member, editorial board, the Free Arab Voice.




Tuesday, 30 May 2006.



· Resistance bomb reportedly kills US soldier east of ar-Ramadi.



· Resistance bomb north of al-Fallujah leaves four US troops reported dead.



· Pro-American Shi'i sectarian militias try to storm Baghdad’s al-A'zamiyah district after dark Tuesday night, sparking fierce fighting as local residents rally to beat them back.



· Women of ad-Dulu'iyah don explosive belts after US commander threatens to order his men to "rape all the women in the city" if Resistance fighters aren’t handed over by Wednesday. US launches late-night air assault, burning citrus, date palm groves and destroying boats that people might use to try to escape the blockade.



· US troops kill pregnant woman and her mother on their way to hospital in Samarra’ Tuesday afternoon.



· US storms houses throughout at-Tarimiyah. Man and 10-year-old girl killed in savage American assaults.



· US admits soldier killed in al-Mawsil.



Al-Anbar Province.

Ar-Ramadi.



Resistance bomb reportedly kills US soldier east of ar-Ramadi.



In a dispatch posted at 4:35pm Makkah time Tuesday afternoon, Mafkarat al-Islam reported that an Iraqi Resistance bomb exploded by a US military column on the main road in the al-Bu 'Ubayd area east of ar-Ramadi, about 110km west of Baghdad.

SnakebyteXX
06-04-2006, 08:16 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr>

Here's another article from your lovely website.

<hr /></blockquote>

First off, it's not MY website nor do I consider it to be particularly lovely. I originally snagged the article from Google News because I thought it was thought provoking - and I continue to think so...

Have you noticed interest rates rising? Housing sales slowing (think: Housing Bubble Bursting)? The price of precious metals climbing (Gold recently broke through $700 the highest it's been in years - before falling back)? The national debt spiralling out of control? Our foreign trade imbalance higher than it's ever been and going higher? Fuel prices also on the rise?

Where do you think all this might be going re the strength of the dollar?

wolfdancer
06-04-2006, 02:22 PM
As ole GWB would say " I don't give a hoot about a greenback dollar, spend it fast as I can...."
I believe that oil will be pegged to the eurodollar, but if the U.S. dollar collapses....being now a debtor nation, we collapse a few other currencies as well.
I'm not an economist, but on one site, they blame Reagan, I believe, for taking us off the gold standard...(it was obviously a Republican though)....and then went on to say, and here's where they lost me...that the dollar is now currency, and currency is designed so that in 40 yrs, a dollar today, will be worth a nickel. This allows the presses to keep churning out the "In God we trust" paper money.
They also place a lot of blame on Alan Greenspan's low interest rates...esp now that the R.E. bull market is over.

Qtec
06-04-2006, 08:13 PM
Hi Fran. Here is a better article on the subject. The Iranian Bourse (http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html)

Its interesting stuff.

Q

wolfdancer
06-07-2006, 05:36 PM
web page (http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/everybreath/)