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View Full Version : 9 ball is not a game of luck



sofy60
06-10-2006, 02:25 PM
Ive heard many people including top pros who talk about 9 ball being a game of luck.

I would like to bring forth evidence to state the contrary.
Yes Luck can win you a game of 9 ball.
and NO Luck will never win you a race to 7 in 9 ball. Bad players will never beat good players at this game. I dont care how lucky you think you are or will get. if two players are equally matched and one of them gets Lucky on a game which wins the match then yes. But if you are or think you are better than some other player do not ever blame losing a race to 7 as the other guy got lucky. Truth is you just arent truly better than that lucky guy. or at least not on that day.
I am lucky enough to get to play against pro players every day of the week. Some of the worlds best which include three members of the IPT Tour. Im on top of my game. Im a threat to run out any game at any time in 9 ball. My stroke is very good and I rarely miss balls and safeties. I believe I would beat 99 percent of all players.. however back down to earth I come quickly when playing professionals in a race to 7.
Ok so you want the stats ? In over 300 race to 7s ive played in the last 3 months I have yet to win 1 of them. Yes thats correct 0 out of 300 tries. And I got on the hill twice in 300 tries and choked both times I was so excited. And im sure my A game was with me in at least 100 of these attempts. Cant blame it on anything really. When you get 1 shot at the table every 3 games on average you need to do that right back to your opponent or its over quick. If I get Lucky as they put it I may get to shoot once per game and usually snookered or long rail frozen with a jump shot. Learning how to play good cold.. or not warmed up is also a must have attribute. Sitting down for 15 minutes between shots takes my eye and stroke right out of the game. Ill tell you what though nothing in the world is better than getting butchered by the best players in the world. I look forward to it every day and If I ever win a race Ill throw a party.

allstar
06-11-2006, 07:12 AM
so you play 3 races to seven 7 days a week. Interesting......

Fran Crimi
06-11-2006, 07:58 AM
I agree, it's not a game of luck. Plus, it's a game of making the big shots when you have to, and those who can't are usually among the first to complain that it's a game of luck.

Fran

PoolSharkAllen
06-11-2006, 08:54 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr> I agree, it's not a game of luck. <hr /></blockquote>
Since 9-ball isn't a called shot game, there's more luck involved as you can slop balls into pockets. ...and the winner is the one who makes the 9-ball regardless of how many other balls were made.

Fran Crimi
06-11-2006, 08:59 AM
True, certain aspects of the game may involve more luck at times but there's a trade-off in having to shoot balls in rotation, which is a lot different than having the option to shoot at another ball when you get out of line as in a call shot game. But either way, it's not a game of luck like some complain that it is.

Fran

Scott Lee
06-11-2006, 09:03 AM
Of the four main pocket billiard games, played by most people, including 8-ball, 9-ball, 14.1, and one pocket, 9-ball has the greatest luck factor, hands down.

Scott Lee

Fran Crimi
06-11-2006, 09:11 AM
First of all, I'm amazed that you are able to weigh every aspect of all games to come to that conclusion. I haven't been able to figure it out for 30 years and still can't.

But even if that were true, that 9-ball does involve more luck, does that make it a game of luck?

Brian in VA
06-11-2006, 11:06 AM
Hi Fran,

No I don't think 9 ball is a "game of luck" which, to me, infers that it's a coin flip. I believe that since pockets don't have to be called and slop counts that luck plays a slightly larger factor than the other games since they are, traditionally, called pocket games. There is also luck involved in those games it just doesn't come into play to the same degree as 9 ball. I would also say that the better the players are that are playing, the less luck becomes a factor in determining the winner of a given match.
I also think that's what Scott was saying.

Just my 2 cents.

Brian in VA

Scott Lee
06-11-2006, 01:48 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Brian in VA:</font><hr>
I also think that's what Scott was saying.

Brian in VA <hr /></blockquote>

Yep! /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

DSAPOLIS
06-11-2006, 05:11 PM
Like anything else, its all in the way that you play the game. If you play 9 ball with reckless abandon, trying to slop balls in or going for a nonsensical cheese shot everytime you get to the table - then it is a game of luck. If you play the game like you know what you are doing - examples:
a)breaking effectively by stopping the cue ball in the center
b) trying to make the 1 ball in the side or banking it long to the corner off the break

c)making the corner ball off the break intentionally

d)then playing effective patterns while executing all of your shots

e) make the shots you are faced with or play an effective safety when you have to

If you play like that, then it is NOT a luck game. The wham-bam game of 9 ball that you see people playing in bars and pool halls contain and rely upon the luck factor - but with advanced players of the game - we usually have a game plan and a strategy. Of course after the break in any game, you are leaving the lay of the balls at the mercy of the table conditions. If you are a run out 9 ball player, chances are luck is a very small factor with the exception of the break.

Most of what I do at the table is deliberate - occasionally I will get a lucky drop or two - but its not intentional, and I can guarantee you that it was not because I recklessly banged at the balls to try to cheese in the 9.

SPetty
06-11-2006, 05:58 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote sofy60:</font><hr> Yes Luck can win you a game of 9 ball.
and NO Luck will never win you a race to 7 in 9 ball. Bad players will never beat good players at this game. I dont care how lucky you think you are or will get. <hr /></blockquote>It DOES happen on rare occasions.

I was playing a player much better than I. In a race to 7 - she went ahead 5-0. No surprise there. The next rack, I made the 9-ball on the break. Score 5-1. Alternating breaks - she won the next game - now the score is 6-1, race is to 7.

Every single shot therafter - when it was my turn - when I missed - resulted in either 1) pocketing a ball other than expected (different ball or different pocket) and leaving me a shot or 2) locking her up so that she had no shot.

I ended up winning the match 7-6. UNBELIEVABLE, yet I was there and I saw it happen and I benefited from it.

Yes, LUCK does play a factor in 9-ball, and CAN affect the outcome of a race to 7 match. I'm living proof. At least for now.

Sid_Vicious
06-11-2006, 08:22 PM
SPetty...come to Skillman some Saturday or Sunday afternoon and I'll introduce you to the best cheezer I've seen. He is amazing how he reads a table and moves balls with his jab stroke, pockets something in very bizarre ways, then does it again. I ain't joking. It's quite a show to see. I understand he drilled bert Kinister one day, not knowing anything about Bert's game or background.

I know two people like that...sid

walt8880
06-11-2006, 09:40 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote sofy60:</font><hr> Ok so you want the stats ? In over 300 race to 7s ive played in the last 3 months I have yet to win 1 of them. Yes thats correct 0 out of 300 tries. <hr /></blockquote>

You need to get some of these players to give you some weight. It's good to play people of higher skill level than yourself, but 0/300 is a little too one sided. I hope you are only playing for fun and not money.

On the luck issue, I agree that 9 ball has more opportunity for luck because the shots are not called, but there is still tremendous skill involved in playing at a high level.

Fran Crimi
06-12-2006, 05:27 AM
Hi Brian,

I know what Scott was saying. Thanks for the interpretation, though. /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Fran

Fran Crimi
06-12-2006, 05:34 AM
Hi SPetty,

It happens in 14.1, too. There's nothing more frustrating than watching your opponent miss a break shot and leave you safe. Yikes! Many times it's a game-breaker.

Fran

Voodoo Daddy
06-12-2006, 07:31 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote sofy60:</font><hr> Ive heard many people including top pros who talk about 9 ball being a game of luck.

I would like to bring forth evidence to state the contrary.
Yes Luck can win you a game of 9 ball.
and NO Luck will never win you a race to 7 in 9 ball. Bad players will never beat good players at this game. I dont care how lucky you think you are or will get. if two players are equally matched and one of them gets Lucky on a game which wins the match then yes. But if you are or think you are better than some other player do not ever blame losing a race to 7 as the other guy got lucky. Truth is you just arent truly better than that lucky guy. or at least not on that day.
I am lucky enough to get to play against pro players every day of the week. Some of the worlds best which include three members of the IPT Tour. Im on top of my game. Im a threat to run out any game at any time in 9 ball. My stroke is very good and I rarely miss balls and safeties. I believe I would beat 99 percent of all players.. however back down to earth I come quickly when playing professionals in a race to 7.
Ok so you want the stats ? In over 300 race to 7s ive played in the last 3 months I have yet to win 1 of them. Yes thats correct 0 out of 300 tries. And I got on the hill twice in 300 tries and choked both times I was so excited. And im sure my A game was with me in at least 100 of these attempts. Cant blame it on anything really. When you get 1 shot at the table every 3 games on average you need to do that right back to your opponent or its over quick. If I get Lucky as they put it I may get to shoot once per game and usually snookered or long rail frozen with a jump shot. Learning how to play good cold.. or not warmed up is also a must have attribute. Sitting down for 15 minutes between shots takes my eye and stroke right out of the game. Ill tell you what though nothing in the world is better than getting butchered by the best players in the world. I look forward to it every day and If I ever win a race Ill throw a party. <hr /></blockquote>

"Damn Voodoo, your a lucky guy. Lucky? When I see Lucky I'll tell him you said hello" Lucky is always misunderstood...lucky is when you get shot and the bullet hits no vital organs. Lucky is when you drop 3 coins innna slot machine and you hit the big prize. 9-Ball is pretty far from lucky BUT when you playing well, or over your head the rolls do go your way...is that lucky? No, thats life!!

bsmutz
06-12-2006, 08:49 AM
These people have it all wrong! Of course, it's just luck. After such a long unlucky streak, you must be just about ready to turn the corner. Now, when can we get together and play some? I feel a streak of bad luck coming on and I need to get rid of some extra money...

supergreenman
06-12-2006, 02:04 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Scott Lee:</font><hr> Of the four main pocket billiard games, played by most people, including 8-ball, 9-ball, 14.1, and one pocket, 9-ball has the greatest luck factor, hands down.

Scott Lee <hr /></blockquote>

Thump thump thump (not just tap tap tap)

James

Bob_Jewett
06-12-2006, 05:04 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr>... I haven't been able to figure it out for 30 years and still can't.... <hr /></blockquote>
I can't either. There is a way we could though. That would be to have a range of players play both nine ball matches and game-X matches that take about the same amount of time. The game that is the most effective at separating the wheat from the chaff in a given duration of match is the one that has the least luck. It would not be an easy experiment, but it could be done.

By this measure, nine ball might be a less lucky game than one pocket because it takes those 1P players so darn long to shoot. There are few nine ball games that last an hour.

sofy60
06-12-2006, 05:54 PM
Great response to this post glad to see some feedback. In response to your responses One of you hit the nail on the head. No slop is hardly a factor in 9 ball when its played by good players. Nobody is off the mark that much and nobody overhits anything that hard to get it to another pocket except on rare occasions. If you do slop a shot it usually means you missed the intended shot and thus usually have a crappy leave for the next ball. I would be thrilled to watch these guys slop something in as I may get to shoot again.

To answer one question Yes I do 3 race to sevens every day. Usually I do 20 race to 7s every day. I play 4-5 hours a day every day with one or two days off a month. Mostly because of the famous people Im lucky enough to play with I feel foolish if I did something else with my day. Wasted opportunity that would be. No I would never gamble with these guys and thank goodness as Id be down a chunk. I dont get weight and obviously they dont let me win or dump for me which would be nice. I think they know how bad I want it and they are keeping there foot on my head so to speak. Im learning to play pool where every shot to me is worth about 3 losses if I miss. In total 3 of them have 41 titles and 4 US open titles. So this could explain my losing streak. I didnt play much today I had to loan my cue to a buddy so he could lose 2,400 Guess he didnt like my cue.. lol but watching those two hacks play pool for 4 hours was freaking boring. At 500 a set I didnt want to take my cue back and leave him with a housie..

Ive been working harder than ever on my game. I feel ive mastered the safety game , shotmaking and speed / cue control . Im getting so good at that stuff I amaze myself. However for the life of me I still miss 2 footers that should go in the hole all day long. little angles with nothing challenging about them. Except in gameplay Ill blow this shot once every two games. Its like an electrical force screws with my brain or something. I look at it.. its aimed perfect and then MUFF.. If it persists I will see a shrink.
I think all balls should have stripes on them. Easier to pick your spot on the ball I think.
Good day to you players.

Fran Crimi
06-12-2006, 06:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That would be to have a range of players play both nine ball matches and game-X matches that take about the same amount of time. The game that is the most effective at separating the wheat from the chaff in a given duration of match is the one that has the least luck. It would not be an easy experiment, but it could be done.
<hr /></blockquote>

Maybe. Wouldn't you have to find 4 players with nearly the exact same playing styles and level for their respective games to eliminate important variables? That wouldn't be easy.

Fran

Bob_Jewett
06-12-2006, 07:44 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr> [ QUOTE ]

That would be to have a range of players play both nine ball matches and game-X matches that take about the same amount of time. The game that is the most effective at separating the wheat from the chaff in a given duration of match is the one that has the least luck. It would not be an easy experiment, but it could be done.
<hr /></blockquote>

Maybe. Wouldn't you have to find 4 players with nearly the exact same playing styles and level for their respective games to eliminate important variables? That wouldn't be easy.

Fran <hr /></blockquote>
Maybe, but I think a random range of players would be fine or at last reasonable. You would have to determine the chances for each pair of players for each game, and see whether nine ball produced more lop-sided victories in the same playing time as other games. I suppose among a particular set of players there might be far more variation in their one pocket knowledge and that is why the best rose easily to the top at that game, and that could skew things, so one pocket might be a bad game to measure against. On the other hand you could also argue that one pocket is less random exactly because knowledge is a more important factor.

Qtec
06-13-2006, 07:36 AM
If you play a bad player who misses the pockets by wide margins and who hits all shots hard, the chance for sloping balls greatly increases. If he makes a lot of sloppy balls , thats not luck, its just a fact. Its going to happen.
What is luck? Isn't it just a perception and not really a fact?
If luck is real then the laws of mathematics dictate that in the long run, everything evens out. So why worry about it? Sometimes you get the run of the balls and sometimes you don't.
I would say that at the highest level of play, a little 'good luck'is more deciseve than at the lower levels.

Q

Bob_Jewett
06-13-2006, 08:42 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr> ... Maybe. Wouldn't you have to find 4 players with nearly the exact same playing styles and level for their respective games to eliminate important variables? That wouldn't be easy.... <hr /></blockquote>
I just figured out another experiment that is similar. Have all the nine ball players play each other to find relative rankings. Andy beats Bill by 2:1 and Bill beats Charlie by 2:1 and so on down to Yves beats Zelda 2:1 or some such. Have all the one pocket players do the same. One of the two structures will have more levels. That is the more skillful game.

As examples, coin flipping has only one level, and tic-tac-toe has only two levels -- those who know the strategy and those who don't. In the straight pool league I play in, the ratio of the best player to the worst is 8:1, so that a fair game would be 160:20. I'm pretty sure that Hohmann could give our best player 2:1, and that our worst player could beat most of the 40,000,000 pool players in the US. By this very rough estimate, straight pool has at least a 32:1 skill spread based on balls pocketed. (That's different than a 2-hour match to determine skill differences, but it's related.)

Vagabond
06-13-2006, 09:07 AM
`` More I practice, more luckier I get``.
`Wimpy` Luther Lassiter /ccboard/images/graemlins/cool.gif

recoveryjones
06-13-2006, 10:37 AM
On any given day the luck (rolls) in nine ball can be insanely lopsided to favour one player. Over a period of time however, the rolls tend to even out.I think that pool players just tend to acknowledge their bad luck when losing and keep their good luck a secret when bragging to their friends of who they just beat at the local tournament.I can relate /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif.

I've beaten 3 or 4 pros in short races to 3 and 4 with some weight, however, in the bigger local tournaments which have featured a race to seven or nine, I've yet to win. I'd have to say other than a few rare ocassions when luck is insanely one-sided , your observations about luck are dead on the money,especially in longer races.
RJ

DickLeonard
06-13-2006, 11:31 AM
Fran I played the Babe an afternoon and evening exhibition in Hudson NY. In the afternoon game he ran 115 and out and in the evening match he ran 74 from the go and I came back with an 87. Babe ran 70 and missed and I ran two racks, overcut my breakshot into siderail and the cueball ran down the rack and the cueball and objectball collided by the pocket making it on the second try and I finished running 63 and out.

So there is luck in 14.1.####

sofy60
06-13-2006, 04:31 PM
If your running 63 balls in a row in straight pool your not lucky when one falls in unintended. Your a damm good pool player and your 63 stands for itself. Considering all the bad things that can happen on a pool table its nice something good can happen too.

Im tired of hearing about rolls.. and I didnt get the rolls and the rolls arent going my way.. what a bunch of whiny sh77 .. Get your speed right and you wont be talking about your rolls.. You act like its luck or something here. Either your too fast or too slow or projected the wrong angle nothing else and nothing more. If your predetermined plan is to leave your next shot to shoot thru a tiny gap on the table then your making the wrong choice. Clear it out. Park it in the backdoor or something else. Dont rely on parking it on a 2 inch peice of real estate or your screwed.
This is bad decision making and its nothing to do with rolls or butter. If you win a set its nice to make your opponent feel better by claiming you got good rolls.. but if you lose dont ever start whining about rolls. Its your fault none other. Ok I got that off my chest.

sofy60
06-13-2006, 04:35 PM
One exception

now if your playing on an outdoor pool table on a windy day and sand is blown all over the table and your perfectly hit balls roll an extra 2 feet when they catch the breeze then YES then you can rightly complain about your bad rolls.

wolfdancer
06-13-2006, 05:14 PM
don't pay any attention to this bsmurtz guy....he's a known pool hustler up here, and the bs stands for what he'll tell you to get a game going....I'm just asking him for the orange crush, and the snaps, but he wants a lock up game

cushioncrawler
06-13-2006, 05:46 PM
In a sense it iz luck that keeps us coming back for more. Sure, we try to get better, but if everyone got exactly what they dezerved every time they played then i think that poolnsnookernbilliardz would be a different game(s).

Fact iz, we all hope to do better than we dezerve -- this keeps us coming back for more. Our best run or rezult was due to luck az much az anything else -- sometimez blatently so -- but no-one can wipe that smile off your face no-how.

English Billiardz iz now dominated by bad luck. Unfortunately, nowadayz, we have had foisted on us a small light-weight, soft, hi-gloss ball -- just a pool ball really (no disrespect). This haz introduced an element of Russian Roulette -- the qball angle iz a matter of luck at timez. Now, whereaz die make BackGammon perhaps the best game in the world, a great combination of skill and luck, this sort of Roulette duznt work for English Billiardz. The same sort of bad-luck exists in Pool, but less so i guess, the object-ball angle iz not so critical i guess.

Fran Crimi
06-13-2006, 06:27 PM
Ha! Great story, Dick. 63 And out after a lucky break...that's what I call capitalizing on a good roll. I've seen too many players feel guilty about it when it happens and they miss shortly after.

Fran

Rich R.
06-14-2006, 02:50 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Fran Crimi:</font><hr> Ha! Great story, Dick. 63 And out after a lucky break...that's what I call capitalizing on a good roll. I've seen too many players feel guilty about it when it happens and they miss shortly after. <hr /></blockquote>
I don't think any player should feel guilty about getting a good roll. Chances are good that a bad roll is coming soon, and things will average out. /ccboard/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Sorry for sticking in my 2 cents.

Icon of Sin
06-15-2006, 10:07 AM
Sure it is arguable about 9 ball being a luck game or not. But I think 8 ball is a little more lucky since you still have plenty of options to shoot if you get out of line.

Plus in 8 ball you have teh factor of the 8 ball going in early just the opposite results. You could get lucky in 8 ball and your opponent may pocket it early by mistake.

ALso when it comes to league play, 9 ball is deifnately the less lucky. I have seen an APA 2 run a rack of APA 8 ball. Simply by banging balls into the pockets and still having options after each shot. In 9 ball, this same player may get lucky and run 2 balls in a row but no matter what he has to go for that next numbered ball, he doesnt have another 5 balls to choose from. Sure he could bang it and it could go 5 rails and go in but his chances of that happening another 5 times in a row are very very slim.

9 ball is only lucky if you and your opponent are playing it that way. If you are playing it with skill and your opponent playing lucky you should win a race to 7 everytime. IMO 9 ball is less lucky then 8 ball and a much more challenging game.

onepocketfanatic
06-17-2006, 08:09 PM
Seems to me when you are playing and executing well, you get the rolls. When you are having an off day, and not playing well, you don't. Just like in any other sport, there are days you can do no wrong, and other days you sh*t and fall back in it constantly.

sofy60
06-20-2006, 11:22 AM
Just an update.. I won finally.. 7-6