SpiderMan

02-08-2007, 10:08 AM

I've recently joined an 8-Ball league that keeps statistics on several figures of merit, including break-and-runs.

On any given night, 5-man teams play five "rounds", each player matching up against a different opponent each round. Total for the night is 5 games per man, or 25 per team.

Breaking is determined solely by the lineup - it alternates, with no "break reward" for winning a game. One team gets all the breaks first round, the other team the second round, etc. In the fifth round, the breaks are alternated between teams. Any individual player will break twice in his first four rounds, and then break or not in the last round according to where he falls in the lineup. On average, any given player will therefore break 2.5 times per 5-game match. 8-on-the-break is spotted, so you still have to run out for it to be a B&R.

I've played 10 weeks so far, therefore I am assumed to have had 25 breaks (out of 50 games). of these 25 games, I have had 5 break-and-runs, therefore my percentage is 20%. This means that, on average, I break and run 1 time out of 5. Assuming I make something on the break about half the time, then I must be running out 40% of these cases to wind up at 20% overall.

When I practice with friends, we play "winner breaks", so we get a chance to string together several racks if we're hot. Under this format, my best string so far is 4 B&Rs in a row.

Mathematically, my B&R percentage of 20% says that I'll probably string together four racks of 8-ball every 625 starts: 1/(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)= 625

So, what if I wanted my best string to be six in a row? If I extrapolate the above data (yeah, I know it's a stretch) and say that my high series will still probably be a 1-in-625 event, then the corresponding B&R percentage would be the sixth root of (1/625), or 34.2%.

So improving my B&R percentage from the current 1-in-5 to about 1-in-3 would have me stringing together six about as often as I now string together four.

Assuming I still only make a ball on the break about half the time, that means I would have to run out 68% of these cases in order to maintain the 34% B&R percentage.

Does this make sense? Dr Dave?

SpiderMan

On any given night, 5-man teams play five "rounds", each player matching up against a different opponent each round. Total for the night is 5 games per man, or 25 per team.

Breaking is determined solely by the lineup - it alternates, with no "break reward" for winning a game. One team gets all the breaks first round, the other team the second round, etc. In the fifth round, the breaks are alternated between teams. Any individual player will break twice in his first four rounds, and then break or not in the last round according to where he falls in the lineup. On average, any given player will therefore break 2.5 times per 5-game match. 8-on-the-break is spotted, so you still have to run out for it to be a B&R.

I've played 10 weeks so far, therefore I am assumed to have had 25 breaks (out of 50 games). of these 25 games, I have had 5 break-and-runs, therefore my percentage is 20%. This means that, on average, I break and run 1 time out of 5. Assuming I make something on the break about half the time, then I must be running out 40% of these cases to wind up at 20% overall.

When I practice with friends, we play "winner breaks", so we get a chance to string together several racks if we're hot. Under this format, my best string so far is 4 B&Rs in a row.

Mathematically, my B&R percentage of 20% says that I'll probably string together four racks of 8-ball every 625 starts: 1/(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)= 625

So, what if I wanted my best string to be six in a row? If I extrapolate the above data (yeah, I know it's a stretch) and say that my high series will still probably be a 1-in-625 event, then the corresponding B&R percentage would be the sixth root of (1/625), or 34.2%.

So improving my B&R percentage from the current 1-in-5 to about 1-in-3 would have me stringing together six about as often as I now string together four.

Assuming I still only make a ball on the break about half the time, that means I would have to run out 68% of these cases in order to maintain the 34% B&R percentage.

Does this make sense? Dr Dave?

SpiderMan