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wolfdancer
02-27-2007, 02:39 PM
The Dow crashed 416 points today....triggered by a 10% decline in the Chinese(our nation's friendly payday loan folks)..their stock market . I'm looking for the nearest tall building to jump out of.
Mr. Greenspan, in an article I just read yesterday, predicted a "recession" and big market correction, much later on this year.
I'll be surprised if this is a one day thing, esp given the volatility of the market...and so many speculators margined heavily.
A new 1929 style "black friday"? later on this week?
All the pieces are in place...A Republican on the Helm, just like in the Tulip Market Crash of 1637.....and most other big pull-backs that have followed.....

FatsRedux
02-27-2007, 03:42 PM
The 416 point drop in the Dow is serious, but it's a 3.3% drop. A true correction would require a minimum 9% drop. So while today's drop is cause for concern the sky is not falling (yet). If the Chinese and Asian markets continue to sell off overnite then we could see even greater losses in US markets.

Fats

wolfdancer
02-27-2007, 04:23 PM
Many stil think the market is overbought... they have programs in place to prevent a "meltdown"....but it wouldnt be surprising if this leads to a return to around 10k before the dust settles....

cushioncrawler
02-27-2007, 05:01 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> Many stil think the market is overbought... they have programs in place to prevent a "meltdown"....but it wouldnt be surprising if this leads to a return to around 10k before the dust settles.... <hr /></blockquote> Woolfy -- How might a stock-market fall hurt me. madMac.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 01:20 AM
we'll be sending the new wave of homeless over to the prison colony...our street corners and doorways are already over crowded at night....

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 02:01 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> we'll be sending the new wave of homeless over to the prison colony...our street corners and doorways are already over crowded at night.... <hr /></blockquote> Woolfy -- The stock market, in its effect on the USA economy, is not far ahead of the effect of the horse-win odds for the Kentucky Derby -- ie allmost zilch. The Great Depression proovd that. madMac.

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 03:18 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote FatsRedux:</font><hr> The 416 point drop in the Dow is serious, but it's a 3.3% drop. A true correction would require a minimum 9% drop. So while today's drop is cause for concern the sky is not falling (yet). If the Chinese and Asian markets continue to sell off overnite then we could see even greater losses in US markets. Fats <hr /></blockquote>Fats -- Overall, the stock winners equal the stock loozerz, just like in the Kentucky Derby. What i would like to know iz what effects people overall.

I mentta hitta possum inna Clunes neara miplace in de magna.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 09:37 AM
We seem to have different opinions re the great depression. Since the regs. at that time allowed people to trade with just 10% equity, when the crash came, their personal wealth was wiped out overnite.
I thought the crash triggered the great depression.....
I also believe the market reflects the economy, and the economy is affected by the market....it's either a win/win, or lose/lose situation.......but that's just my opinion, I skipped school the day they taught economics....thought M1 was another branch, like M5, of the British secret service.
.....just Googled "famous economists" to get a quotable line from Keynes, or Galbraith....and found some interesting reading instead, on Mises, who seemed to have predicted the big dipper of 29'
Coupled with the "housing bubble"...wait'll them balloon payments kick in,then add in a huge correction........I could be selling apples out of a pushcart, for a living....and standing in a soup line.....

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 01:39 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> We seem to have different opinions re the great depression. Since the regs. at that time allowed people to trade with just 10% equity, when the crash came, their personal wealth was wiped out overnite.
I thought the crash triggered the great depression.....
I also believe the market reflects the economy, and the economy is affected by the market....it's either a win/win, or lose/lose situation.......but that's just my opinion, I skipped school the day they taught economics....thought M1 was another branch, like M5, of the British secret service.
.....just Googled "famous economists" to get a quotable line from Keynes, or Galbraith....and found some interesting reading instead, on Mises, who seemed to have predicted the big dipper of 29'
Coupled with the "housing bubble"...wait'll them balloon payments kick in,then add in a huge correction........I could be selling apples out of a pushcart, for a living....and standing in a soup line..... <hr /></blockquote>Nah, the Mises stuff etc is all krap. Western economic is all krap. Keynes of course, full of krap, woz about the best they could do, at that time.

A stock market cannot wipe out personal wealth (overall) any more than a racehorse can.

$$$$ are just an accounting "knife" to help cut everyone's share of "the cake". If the knife is blunt, or if it goze missing, or if the gov (or the stock market) makes a million knives, the cake is still the cake, no bigger, no smaller.

That Depression No3A (or whatever) woz triggered by the stock market crash iz krap. But, one would be starting to think logically if one came to the conclusion that No3A woz triggered by the stockmarket "boom". Koz, the boom sucked-up demand. But, it wouldnt be difficult to blame it on "the usuary", they engineered lots of depressions in the oldendayz. madMac.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 03:16 PM
I had a rich relative got wiped out by the crash....same year, his daughter was beheaded in an automobile accident, and then his wife committed suicide....(bad luck comes in threes)
Couple of years ago, the CEO of OMG pledged his stock shares in the company, to margin heavily on some othere stock investments.....when the margin call came in....it broke him, and resulted in that stock dropping from the $30's to under $6...I think it hit in the $2's....the war helped the company return to the $30's and it broke the $50 mark today.
Like a dummy...I bought cheap and sold at a small profit.
Not sure why you believe as you do....but I agree with you on one salient point....since the wealth in those days was controlled by a small fraction of the population...."things" could be aranged....many people with wealth, actually increased their wealth during the depression.
And with the "middle class" on the endangered species list....we're back to the 10% with 90% of the wealth....

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 04:13 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> ....Couple of years ago, the CEO of OMG pledged his stock shares in the company, to margin heavily on some othere stock investments.....when the margin call came in....it broke him, and resulted in that stock dropping from the $30's to under $6...I think it hit in the $2's....the war helped the company return to the $30's and it broke the $50 mark today.....<hr /></blockquote>What i would want to know, iz, while all of this woz happening....
....Did omg produce products??
....Did omg make a profit(s)??
The rest can be filed with "how i won/lost at the track". madMac.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 08:53 PM
OMG is in the strategic metals and specialty chemicals field.The war created a new demand for magnesium, I believe.It's irrevelant whether they made a profit, or not. Today's market is driven by emotions and expectations.....future earnings,as they like to call it,and hope you overlook the negative P/E....I believe someone won a Nobel Prize in Economics in the past decade for stating the same thing, but using bigger words.
I thought we were discussing your theory that the market is of no consequence to the economy.......but it's only Australia where the market is secondary to the horse tracks, our investors are your punters....I still have fond memories of "English court" a 100 to 1 shot, at Adelaide....that I placed a few quid on.
Not only do they race backwards in Australia.....but Secretatiat would have spotted Phar Lap a hundred meters, ran the track CW or CCW, ....then "ate him for lunch"

Today looked like a "dead cat bounce"....tried to recover, then pulled back......the next two days could be interesting. I could have made a fortune trading Beanie Babies....but never could find that lucrative "secondary market"

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 09:13 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> OMG is in the strategic metals and specialty chemicals field.The war created a new demand for magnesium, I believe.It's irrevelant whether they made a profit, or not. Today's market is driven by emotions and expectations.....future earnings,as they like to call it,and hope you overlook the negative P/E....I believe someone won a Nobel Prize in Economics in the past decade for stating the same thing, but using bigger words.
I thought we were discussing your theory that the market is of no consequence to the economy.......but it's only Australia where the market is secondary to the horse tracks, our investors are your punters....I still have fond memories of "English court" a 100 to 1 shot, at Adelaide....that I placed a few quid on.
Not only do they race backwards in Australia.....but Secretatiat would have spotted Phar Lap a hundred meters, ran the track CW or CCW, ....then "ate him for lunch"

Today looked like a "dead cat bounce"....tried to recover, then pulled back......the next two days could be interesting. I could have made a fortune trading Beanie Babies....but never could find that lucrative "secondary market" <hr /></blockquote>There is no Nobel Prize for economics, thank God. Dont know much about horses, xept that they are a fool's game. They run CCW in melbourne, and CW in sydney. Hard to judge Secretariat vs PharLap -- who had the best times ??? Sand track vs grass. USA elephant juice vs hay.

But the market has nothing much to do with the cake. Economics is a dogma, a religion. High interest rates are a sin. Low interest rates are a sin. And the priests rule. Who needs Islam ??? Could say plenty. Actually, i think that economics is my No1 main thing, apart from religion, and billiards, and the environment. And my missuz (she might be watching). madMac.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 09:46 PM
There is no Nobel Prize for economics, thank God

I was wrong.....there was no one winner
Instead, the no-prize awarded for economics, was won by Mr.Daniel Kahneman and Mr.Vernon L. Smith in 2002

web page (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/)

cushioncrawler
02-28-2007, 09:53 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> There is no Nobel Prize for economics, thank God

I was wrong.....there was no one winner
Instead, the no-prize awarded for economics, was won by Mr.Daniel Kahneman and Mr.Vernon L. Smith in 2002

web page (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/) <hr /></blockquote>Quote from www.huppi.com (http://www.huppi.com) re Friedman &amp; Co......

"The history and award process of the Nobel prize

The Nobel prize for economics is not one of the five original prizes that Alfred Nobel created in his 1895 will. The economics prize was added in 1969, but not by any of the Nobel prize-awarding institutions (such as the Swedish Academy, the Norwegian parliament, etc.). It was actually created by the Bank of Sweden. For this reason, it is not really the "Nobel Prize for Economics." It's real name is "The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel." The prize money does not come out of the Nobel inheritance, but is paid for by the Bank of Sweden.

The creation of a Nobel prize in economics has raised many criticisms. Some protest that the Bank of Sweden has no legal or moral right to use Nobel's name. Others argue that a radical idealist like Alfred Nobel would have never approved of an award defending capitalist economics. Others claim that the award was created to legitimize capitalism at a time of great social protest against it. These are, to be sure, superficial criticisms, but there are more substantial ones that can be leveled at the Nobel newcomer.

Perhaps the most troubling is that the selection process for economics does not resemble the other five. Although the economics committee boasts that it uses the same procedures, a closer look reveals this to be untrue. In the other five categories, the process starts by gathering nominations from as many as 3,000 scientists, which are then assessed by 15-member prize committees. The committees must then argue their own selections before a Nobel Assembly of 50 scientists before reaching a final decision. Usually the discussion of a prize lasts from 5 to 10 years before the prize is awarded.

There is a potentially weak link in this process: the 15-member prize committee. It is free to select any nominations it wishes -- and with thousands of scientists making the nominations, it basically has its choice. And the committee is more expert in its scientific category than the Nobel Assembly, so whatever case it makes is bound to be persuasive. At any rate, the Nobel Assembly has generally rubber-stamped the committee's recommendations.

Where the economics committee differs from the others is that it does not seat 15 members, but only six -- nearly two-thirds smaller. This greatly increases the possibility of bias. How much so becomes apparent in Assar Lindbeck's own description of his committee's selection process:
"So far, the proposals of the prize committee to the [Swedish] Academy have been unanimous. A consensus has in fact developed quite 'automatically' within the committee, as if by some kind of invisible hand." (6)
This is an astonishing admission, for two reasons. First, the "invisible hand" is one of the most famous and sacred economic concepts of the far right, and to say that an invisible hand guides the committee's consensus is an open taunt to the left. Second, there is probably no field of science as wracked by controversy as economics. For the committee to advance unanimous recommendations year after year is possible only if a perfect bias exists in the committee. And even then, were six libertarians to sit on the committee, it is still implausible that their proposals should be unanimous -- even libertarians have bitter disputes. What is more likely is that the "invisible hand" guiding the committee is the iron hand of Lindbeck himself.

Why would committee members defer to Lindbeck? Because Lindbeck's positions create a conflict of interest. Lindbeck serves in two powerful positions: both as head of the Nobel committee and the prestigious Institute for International Economic Studies. If you are a Swedish economist and are serving either on the Nobel committee or in the Nobel Assembly, you must kowtow to Lindbeck if you want your research funded or your career advanced.

Circumstantial evidence? You bet. But the chain of implausibilities required to believe that the committee is acting without bias is too long to be seriously believed. And at any rate, even if it were, the Bank of Sweden needs to initiate immediate reforms to correct a very strong appearance of bias."

I notice that "libertarians" get a mention here -- not sure, but i think it iz meant to be a derogatory mention. madMac.

wolfdancer
02-28-2007, 11:47 PM
It does seem though that the Nobel committee, rates the honor high enough to have it included on their site.....and do not object to the prize being awarded in memory of....So, if it looks like a Nobel prize, and smells like a .....I'm willing to call it a draw.......
as to my other claim...Secretariat had more heart then Phar Lap....in fact more heart then most race horses. When the did an autopsy....they found what really made him tick, was a big heart.

cushioncrawler
03-01-2007, 12:19 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote wolfdancer:</font><hr> It does seem though that the Nobel committee, rates the honor high enough to have it included on their site.....and do not object to the prize being awarded in memory of....So, if it looks like a Nobel prize, and smells like a .....I'm willing to call it a draw.......
as to my other claim...Secretariat had more heart then Phar Lap....in fact more heart then most race horses. When the did an autopsy....they found what really made him tick, was a big heart. <hr /></blockquote>Woolfy.....

1.... The head of the Nobel committee is a rotten economist.
2..... The Non-Nobel economics prize iz paid for by a bank.
3..... Nobel would have stuffed that farcical trophy up their stupid ar$es. Nobel had sense logic and a socialist heart, a nice person all round.

The rumor is that PharLap's heart woz actually that of a draught horse, really big, i think they were going to do a DNA test to check, wonder what happened. madMac.

Gayle in MD
03-01-2007, 06:23 AM
China scares me, along with our huge debt, it's not a pretty picture, IMHO.

Gayle in Md.

cushioncrawler
03-03-2007, 02:50 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Gayle in MD:</font><hr> China scares me, along with our huge debt, it's not a pretty picture, IMHO. Gayle in Md. <hr /></blockquote>Yes, China will do to the USA what Japan did. But, the Chinese arent az stupid az the Japanese. The Japs ended up changing horses when they were ahead. They adopted Western Economics, just to play safe with all of their new $$$$$. Then the Japs found out the bad newz about WesternEconomics. The Chinese wont be so foolish. Yes, the USA and others are going to sink (sort of), could take perhaps one generation.

The good news is that the Chinese democratic system is better than the USA system. The Chinese have a one child (sort of) policy. U wouldnt ever see anything like that in the USA. Overall, what China iz doing (so far) iz sort of good, overall. We will see whether the Chinese lift their game in other (environmental) areas.

And, when this all happens, it will all be a god-send to USA libertarians n economists n religious, it will actually give them more power to do what "shood have been done 100% in the first place, not half-heartedly". What a system. madMac.