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BRussell
03-28-2007, 01:11 PM
In particular, I'm thinking about pool compared to other (individual) sports and games. I'd say that luck is more of a factor in golf than tennis, and I think I'd rank pool as involving more luck than golf, mainly because of the break and how much of a factor the subsequent layout plays in the rest of the game.

I'm curious to see other people's perceptions of how much luck is involved n pool, compared to other games/sports. And what about different pool games - 9-ball, 8-ball, etc.

Cornerman
03-28-2007, 01:19 PM
Somewhere between 96.5 and 98.3.

Fred

BRussell
03-28-2007, 01:50 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Cornerman:</font><hr> Somewhere between 96.5 and 98.3. <hr /></blockquote>Is that on a scale from 13.2 to 194.6? /ccboard/images/graemlins/confused.gif /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

DeadCrab
03-28-2007, 02:33 PM
Define "luck".

BRussell
03-28-2007, 02:51 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote DeadCrab:</font><hr> Define "luck". <hr /></blockquote> Factors not under the player's control.

Sid_Vicious
03-28-2007, 03:07 PM
Yea, bad or good luck. I swear there are people who naturally feel lucky and ARE lucky, and then there are those who are 180 degrees in optimism and get hosed on shape to no git. Fun thing is to get two really lucky players against each other. THAT'S a show...sid

Bob_Jewett
03-28-2007, 03:10 PM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote BRussell:</font><hr> In particular, I'm thinking about pool compared to other (individual) sports and games. I'd say that luck is more of a factor in golf than tennis, and I think I'd rank pool as involving more luck than golf, mainly because of the break and how much of a factor the subsequent layout plays in the rest of the game.

I'm curious to see other people's perceptions of how much luck is involved n pool, compared to other games/sports. And what about different pool games - 9-ball, 8-ball, etc. <hr /></blockquote>
One way to think about this is to figure out how many different levels of skill there are among pool players. Call one player "one level" above another if in a two-hour competition, the better player will win 2/3 of the time.

Tic-tac-toe has two levels -- those who understand the game and will always at least tie, and those who don't. Although there is no luck in tic-tac-toe (naughts and crosses to some), there is almost no skill.

Flipping coins has zero skill (except for those who control the flip with weighted coins and special flipping techniques). There is only one level of player.

At pool, a two-hour match of nine ball would be a race to about 15. There are players who could give me 2:1 on the wire (I would have a slight edge if I only went to 7). If you work through the numbers for chances of winning for various strength differences, this means I'm at least four levels down from the top players. In turn, there are players to whom I could give at least 5:1 on the wire (if they went to 3 while I went to 15, the match would be fair), which corresponds to 11 levels below me. This gives about 16 distinct levels of play for nine ball under the conditions mentioned.

How many levels are there at golf? If you start from Tiger Woods, list the players he would beat 2/3 of the time in a single round, then the players those guys/gals would beat 2/3 of the time and so on until you get to the golfers who have yet to break 60 for nine holes.

Note that this doesn't really address the fact that there might be considerable luck at times in each game. It simply looks at match outcomes, and describes how well a 2-hour match can separate wheat from chaff.

How about pro baseball? I think by this method of measurement, there are only about 2 levels of pro teams. Maybe 3. Expand that down to high school teams to find the full range.

DeadCrab
03-28-2007, 03:31 PM
I would say "luck", as defined, is a significant factor 5% of the time due to environmental factors (imperfections in playing equipment, distractions, ect). Otherwise, I think the good and bad variations cancel each other in the long run.

This is about the same as in horse racing: 5% bad beats due to traffic or environmental factors, but 95% of the time the best horse wins.

Deeman3
03-28-2007, 04:11 PM
The real truth is that luck plays an undefinable role during a shot, a game, a session, a day, a week, a month, a lifetime with descending order of impact as time goes on. In all the games anyone ever played, considering a career, luck played no part of significance one way or the other.

It just seems that way for some folks in measured amounts of time or number of events. That's why I never get cheerful about the good roles nor sad about the bad ones. Over time, they WILL treat you absolutely fairly, unless you just have not played a lot...

cushioncrawler
03-28-2007, 06:01 PM
I woz going to say that luck iz a bigger factor in pool n billiards n snooker nowadayz koz of the krapamiths that we all now uze, ie koz of the more erratic balltoball friction, and the higher incidence (and strength) of cling.

But then i thunk that good players can minimize the occurence of cling, and, more importantly, good players can allmost completely negate the effects of cling and other erratic friction (and here i dont mean that they keep their balls cleaner). So, ignore this posting. madMac.

slow_roller
03-28-2007, 06:33 PM
Is luck more of a factor in 9-ball than 14.1? than 8-ball? One pocket? Does the answer depend on the skill of the players?

cushioncrawler
03-29-2007, 01:30 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote slow_roller:</font><hr> Is luck more of a factor in 9-ball than 14.1? than 8-ball? One pocket? Does the answer depend on the skill of the players? <hr /></blockquote>slowroller -- I have played a little 8ball on a barbox, and a bit of 9ball on my home 6by3, so perhaps someone else might be better able to answer your query. madMac.

Paul_Mon
03-29-2007, 05:28 AM
I think that luck is more of a factor in pool than golf or bowling. IMO, for every 100 shots taken in each sport youll have more lucky rolls in pool. As far as pool games go Id have to rank them as follows.

9 ball
8 ball
1 pocket
14.1

Paul Mon

Jack Nicklaus-------"The more I practice the luckier I get"

Cornerman
03-29-2007, 07:00 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote slow_roller:</font><hr> Is luck more of a factor in 9-ball than 14.1? than 8-ball? One pocket? Does the answer depend on the skill of the players? <hr /></blockquote> I think it depends on the skill of the player. For example, some lower skilled players need to rely on luck to get a runout in 8-ball. While the same player will rely on luck to get to and/or make the 9-ball. so, in 9-ball, s/he only needs to get lucky one big time, whereas in 8-ball, s/he needs to get a little luck a lot of times.

I guess the question leads to one of luck impact/consequence, levels of luck, and types of luck.

Fred

SPetty
03-29-2007, 11:41 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Bob_Jewett:</font><hr> Flipping coins has zero skill (except for those who control the flip with weighted coins and special flipping techniques). There is only one level of player.<hr /></blockquote>I don't know... There are an awful lot of pool players out there who can't flip a coin worth a flip!!! I swear they're just trying to put the coin in the air and come down without flipping. Or trying to cause it to flip over just once. I mean, geez... I guess that might be what you mean by "special flipping techniques".

slow_roller
03-29-2007, 11:55 AM
It may be obvious, but I'll say it anyway: in pool (or any game) the luck factor can make for frustration, but it also adds to the fun. If everything were purely based on skill, knowledge, and execution, the game might be kind of dull. More beer would be required.

Deeman3
03-29-2007, 12:15 PM
SPetty:

The latest trend I have noticed in BCA/APA, although I no longer participate is fliping large, heavy custom coins. Now, I never liked flipping coins on tables, particularily on good quality cloth as it can make small cutss when it lands on it's edge and, although the well-meaning novice can't see this, it can cause damage to the faabric as the cloth is stressed at a later time. These big coins will produce such dents and tears almost immediately.

I also like some measure of skill determining the priveledge of the break option. The lag is ideal and I'm not sure why people don't use this as one more tool to improve speed control knowledge/skill.

You may remember from about 1999 when I posted a list of the things that irritate me about bar play and players. I may not have covered that one, old guys forget things over time, but I would like to officially add that to my list of minor irritants. As I remember, you added a few yourself!

wolfdancer
03-29-2007, 12:28 PM
Mac, are you still using that Dvorak keyboard?
Now if you can just readjust your aim with your right pinky....about 2 clicks to the left, and 2 clicks higher......you'll hit that S more often, instead of the Z

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/25/KB_United_States_Dvorak.svg/400px-KB_United_States_Dvorak.svg.png

BigRigTom
03-29-2007, 03:47 PM
I don't know who originally coined these phrases but they stuck with me since I first heard them back in the early 70's and I believe they are holding true today.

"Good Luck" is when opportunity and preparedness meet.
It is only the people we don't like that are lucky, all those we do like have worked hard and deserve everything they achieve.

cushioncrawler
03-29-2007, 04:38 PM
I see that the Dvorak keyboard iz ok for Mac, but nobody haz ever contacted me about any of this ?!

For sure, my "Z" key iz worn out, but the "S" iz az new. madMac.

Ralph S.
03-30-2007, 01:44 AM
I think all sports have a certain luck factor, but yet it's difficult to really compare them to one another as to which has the biggest luck factor. As far as the luck factor in pool goes, with two very skilled players, luck is pretty much out the window beyond the break. One of the biggest lucky things in pool, in my opinion, is tournament draws and how you wind up in the bracket.

Snapshot9
03-31-2007, 10:47 AM
Barring any Natural diseasters such as earthquakes or tornados or Hurricanes, the only luck I know in Pool is your wife or girlfriend calling you to the phone in the middle of the biggest money set you have played all night, and that is usually bad luck for you.

Other than that, there are only 'Unconsidered details' or 'failed executions'.

Wait a minute, if you are down in match, and your opponent drops dead, and you win by default, then I suppose that is some sort of luck, but I have never seen it happen.

Table conditions can affect the game, but a good player should know his table before playing on it in a match.

I know it seems as if good luck or bad luck prevails sometimes, but it is mostly because of you, not the game.

Ralph S.
04-02-2007, 03:22 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Wait a minute, if you are down in match, and your opponent drops dead, and you win by default, then I suppose that is some sort of luck, but I have never seen it happen.
<hr /></blockquote>

Beleive it, I have seen it happen. Two years ago at Indiana State, a guy was playing his match and had a massive heart attack just after pocketing his eight ball. According to the paramedics that responded to the scene, the heart attack was so massive that they said he was dead as soon as he hit the floor.

Gayle in MD
04-02-2007, 07:21 AM
Very interesting question. One reason is because I have often found myself wondering if my oponent's supposed intentional fantastic shot, was actually luck! /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

But then, I have also noticed that there are moments when I have thrown caution to the wind, and taken instinct shots, without thinking them through, you know, just one of those moments when your instinctive mind cancels out your more calculative, cautions part of your brain, and just makes the shot.

Of all things about luck that I have learned regarding pool, is that determination, seems to go hand and hand with luck! /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

As for other things in life, I have found that pluck provides rewards much more consistantly than luck, yet luck does play a role, however, it seems to surface much more frequently when accompanied by determination.
/ccboard/images/graemlins/wink.gif


Gayle in Md.

Deeman3
04-02-2007, 07:35 AM
<blockquote><font class="small">Quote Gayle in MD:</font><hr> Very interesting question. One reason is because I have often found myself wondering if my oponent's supposed intentional fantastic shot, was actually luck! /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

But then, I have also noticed that there are moments when I have thrown caution to the wind, and taken instinct shots, without thinking them through, you know, just one of those moments when your instinctive mind cancels out your more calculative, cautions part of your brain, and just makes the shot.

Of all things about luck that I have learned regarding pool, is that determination, seems to go hand and hand with luck! /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif

As for other things in life, I have found that pluck provides rewards much more consistantly than luck, yet luck does play a role, however, it seems to surface much more frequently when accompanied by determination.
/ccboard/images/graemlins/wink.gif


Gayle in Md. <hr /></blockquote>

<font color="blue"> Gayle,

In an ideal pool world you should always play the percentage shot as this game and putting together "outs" is a string calculation based on your percentage of success verses your safety options, in almost all forms of the game. However, I beleive you are right and have shot that way all my life. Sometimes, and this can't be too often, you just "know" you will make a very low percentage shot and acting on it has proven to me, many more times than not, that it was the correct choice. I think that is what makes this such a beautiful game, like life, we are granted free will and sometimes, you just gotta go for the three railer into the corner! The reward vs. benefit vs. percentages be damned... </font color>

Gayle in MD
04-02-2007, 08:25 AM
/ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif Yeah! I couldn't give you any statistics on how many games won or lost, but there are shots like that, that I'll never forget! It's funny how almost everything one can say about pool, can be correctly contradicted, given the varried circumstances under the conditions prevailing. Bad luck, covers a lot of bad judgements, or jumpy nerves, if your in earshot of one of those players who must verbalize an excuse after every bad shot! /ccboard/images/graemlins/wink.gif This game becomes fun when unfortunate results are viewed as opportunities for creativity. It seems that invariably, that's when those "Hellova shot!" moments occur... /ccboard/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Gayle in Md.