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Gayle in MD
05-26-2007, 10:51 AM
Assessments Made in 2003 Foretold Situation in Iraq
Intelligence Studies List Internal Violence, Terrorist Activity

By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 20, 2007; A06



Two intelligence assessments from January 2003 predicted that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and subsequent U.S. occupation of Iraq could lead to internal violence and provide a boost to Islamic extremists and terrorists in the region, according to congressional sources and former intelligence officials familiar with the prewar studies.

The two assessments, titled "Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq" and "Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq," were produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and will be a major part of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence's long-awaited Phase II report on prewar intelligence assessments about Iraq. The assessments were delivered to the White House and to congressional intelligence committees before the war started.

The committee chairman, Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), and the vice chairman, Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R-Mo.), announced earlier this month that the panel had asked Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell to declassify the report for public release. Congressional sources said the two NIC assessments are to be declassified and would be part of a portion of the Phase II report that could be released within the next week.

The assessment on post-Hussein Iraq included judgments that while Iraq was unlikely to split apart, there was a significant chance that domestic groups would fight each other and that ex-regime military elements could merge with terrorist groups to battle any new government. It even talks of guerrilla warfare, according to congressional sources and former intelligence officials.

The second NIC assessment discussed "political Islam being boosted and the war being exploited by terrorists and extremists elsewhere in the region," one former senior analyst said. It also suggested that fear of U.S. military dominance and occupation of a Middle East country -- one sacred to Islam -- would attract foreign Islamic fighters to the area.

The NIC assessments paint "a very sobering and, as it has turned out, mostly accurate picture of the aftermath of the invasion," according to a former senior intelligence officer familiar with the studies. He sought anonymity because he is not authorized to speak about still-classified assessments.

The former senior official said that after the NIC papers were distributed to senior government officials, he was told by one CIA briefer that a senior Defense Department official had said they were "too negative" and that the papers "did not see the possibilities" the removal of Hussein would present.

A member of the Senate committee, without disclosing the contents of the studies, said recently that the release will raise more questions about the Bush administration's lack of preparation for the war's aftermath.

In his book, "At the Center of the Storm," former CIA director George J. Tenet discussed the NIC assessments as well as prewar intelligence analyses his own agency prepared on the same issues. Some of the language in the CIA reports that Tenet describes are similar to judgments in the NIC assessments because the agency is a major contributor to such papers, according to present and former intelligence analysts.

While Tenet admits that the CIA expected Shiites in southern Iraq, "long oppressed by Saddam, to open their arms to anyone who removed him," he said agency analysts were "not among those who confidently expected coalition forces to be greeted as liberators."

Tenet writes that the initial good feeling among most Iraqis that Hussein was out of power "would last for only a short time before old rivalries and ancient ethnic tensions resurfaced." The former intelligence analyst said such views also reflected the views in the NIC paper on post-Hussein Iraq.

The NIC assessments also projected the view that a long-term Western military occupation would be widely unacceptable, particularly to the Iraqi military. It also said Iraqis would wait and see whether the new governing authority, whether foreign or Iraqi, would provide security and basic services such as water and electricity.

Tenet wrote that the NIC paper on Iraq said that "Iraqi political culture is so imbued with norms alien to the democratic experience . . . that it may resist the most vigorous and prolonged democratic treatments."

The senior intelligence official said that the prewar analysis of challenges in post-Hussein Iraq contained little in the way of classified information since it was an assessment of future situations and was almost all analysis. The assessment of regional consequences of regime change in Iraq would require deletions since it contains "comments on the policies and perspectives of some friendly governments."

The committee focused on the two NIC assessments -- rather than analyses by the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency or the State Department -- because they were written under the supervision of national intelligence officers and coordinated with all intelligence agencies. Such papers are similar to more formal National Intelligence Estimates except they are not finalized and approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board, made up of the heads of the agencies.


<font color="red">I find it very interesting that these newly released resports, most never seen by the entire Congress, support the very same things that people like Richard Clarke, who was framed as nothing but a disgruntled ex employee by the right on this forum, along with other respected authors from the Intelligence field, yet the reports match exactly the information which I posted on this forum years ago. Having been bashed, and called a liar myself, for calling Bush, Rice, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz, and others in the administration loop, liars, I don't suppose there will be any apologies forthcoming.
Having read Richard Clarke's book, which also details the complete lack of attention that this administration was willing to exert in heeding the unprecedented warnings of the impending 9/11 attack, I will remind the righties, that Richard Clarke requested an emergency meeting with this President, and his cabinet, as soon as Bush was installed in office by the Supreme Court. This White House put that meeting off for eight months, and it was not held until September 10, 2001, and George Bush, didn't even bother to attend the meeting between Rice, Cheney, and Clarke, and a few other administration officials. The same indifference to alQaeda is referred to in George Tenets book, where you will find a complete description of Mr. Tenent, along with his top deputy, rushing to then National Security Advosor Condoleeza Rice's office, months before 9/11, to war her of unprecedented evidence of an impending attack by alQaeda, using aircraft, and possibly crashing planes into buildings, the latter information given her by Richard Clarke.

I see no way that this administration can avoid taking full responsibility, not only the quagmire in Iraq, but the failure to react responsibily to so many high level warnings, not only of the absurdity of invading Iraq, but failing to protect the American People from the devastating attack on 9/11. I do, however, understand why President Bush exerted such great effort to prevent the 9/11 investigation from ever taking place, including trying to cut off the funding for the investigation. What I do not understand, is how ANY American can defend his incompetence, and outrageous lack of attention to such extremely important matters.</font color>

<font color="red">Having watched with my own eyes, the complete failure of George Bush to respond to Katrina, and the gross incompetence and waste of money by hiw own appointees, when he finally did respond, along with the humongous corruption allowed to continue for four years by contractors who have cost taxpayers billions and billions of Dollars in stolen and wasted money in Iraq, for reconstruction, I recon that the exact number of billions lost, will never be known. A bit hard to swallow these days when a President, and his constituants, and even righties on a forum, complain voraciously about Pork in a bill, for Americans (who have been victims of natural disasters) under a slight Democratic majority, after six previous years of the biggest spending and greatest number of earmarks, (True Pork) ever recorded in our history under the former Republican majority, and with narry a single presidential veto throughout. </font color>

Happy Memorial Day Everyone, and be sure and do the right thing, Big Brother Is watching!

wolfdancer
05-26-2007, 11:18 AM
Gayle, as i wrote you....GWB didn't have to read the intelligence reports....he could have just asked me, and I would have suggested that Daddy Warbucks,was smart enough not to try to occupy Iraq. When you upset the balance of power in a region....anything can happen....when you remove the leadership of a country, you create a power vacuum....The middle east is not ready for a Democracy, and probably never will be.
In the meantime GWB, is trying to replace our Democracy with his version...a de facto oligarchy....

Gayle in MD
05-26-2007, 05:51 PM
And the whole plan weas hatched from the oh so intelligent Elitist Right wing pundits, from the Weekly Standard, and the American Enterprise Institute. In case you never noticed, they're all Jewish, and Isreal, is the cornerstone of our thorn in the Middle East, not to mention, they own the American Media.

Gayle In Md., thinks we need to look into our relationship with Isreal.

Drop1
05-26-2007, 07:46 PM
Are you trying to tell me there is a plan for the Middle East,that was given to America's most celebrated born again anti intellectual dim wit,and it was the Jews leading the dim wit,with no exit plan? I think Bush cannot respond to information,because his ego can't take the pain,of his not being the great decider,of anything that has succeeded during his administration. So every failure requires a lie,until his final failure. He is a very scary man.

wolfdancer
05-27-2007, 10:55 AM
George answers to a higher authority.....the almighty dollar!!!
This is a war for profit, for the "insiders"....at the expense of the lives of many.
If there is a Hell.....I'm afraid George's Presidential Pardon...will do him no good in the next life.....
And, as I've written before...isn't a pardon an admittance of guilt?....just like taking the 5th by the lower ranked right wing cabal...is doing!!!

Drop1
05-27-2007, 12:41 PM
You must mean the plunging All Mighty Dollar,down 5% against the Mexican peso in five months

Gayle in MD
05-28-2007, 08:34 AM
Absolutely it's an admission of guilt. So is taking the fifthe under oath, shades of our now corrupt Department Of Justice, which is nothing more than Karl Rove's new political tool, with compliments of the Commander In Chief, whose only expertise is in how to burry the proof of his law breaking, or use fall guys to take the blame. And, if Gonzo hadn't been so heavily emeshed in Bush's illegal torture and wire taps, he'd be setting him up right now to take the fall for this latest scandal, a politicized DOJ.


But hey, Monika is a Christian, and Plame wasn't covert, and Bush doesn't really lie, and we're winning in Iraq, and the world is a better place, now that Saddam is dead, LMAO, and all the other right wing BS that defied, and defies logic, and deny's truth, non stop.

Like I say, 28% of the country is nuts. And yes, they're the same bunch who think a man can live inside a whale!

Gayle in Md.

Drop1
05-28-2007, 12:17 PM
Not a whale silly,inside a large fish.LOL You met Cole Porter,oh!my pants are getting wet,I gotta find my Shaw disk. Dance as though no one is watching. My song for you is "So Fine,"because you send cold shivers up and down my spine. /ccboard/images/graemlins/blush.gif /ccboard/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Gayle in MD
05-28-2007, 03:55 PM
LOL...I just played the same piano which both he, and Duchin, often played on at the Walforf Astoria. /ccboard/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Drop1
05-28-2007, 08:10 PM
I can go for that.So Fine /ccboard/images/graemlins/blush.gif /ccboard/images/graemlins/grin.gif