View Full Version : Before You're Lied To About Jobless Claims
09-16-2010, 07:27 AM
Initial jobless claims come in at 450K, a drop of 3K from last week's revised slightly higher to 453K, a number which as readers will recall was estimated by various states and also the US government due to the holiday weekend. Oddly enough the action was in the continuing claims category, where the weekly number surpassed expectations of 4,464K to 4,485K, and the previous number was revised from 4,478K to 4,569K. And the worst piece of news for the economy: there was a decline of half a million in those on Extended Benefits and Emergency Claims as more and more people exhaust their total maximum 99 week allottment.
09-16-2010, 06:19 PM
I dont get it. Ten % of 300M meens 30M jobless. And the real figure iz closer to 20%, ie 60M.
I dont get it.
09-16-2010, 07:56 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cushioncrawler</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I dont get it. Ten % of 300M meens 30M jobless. And the real figure iz closer to 20%, ie 60M.
I dont get it. mac. </div></div>
The simple answer is that the "workforce" is not the total population of the country, or 300M. The following is directly from the BLS, which calculates the number of unemployed at 14.9M, or 9.6%, of the total "workforce", which would be approximately <149M. Only people actively seeking work are included in the BLS employment numbers, it excludes children under 16, and those not looking for work.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.)*
Even if you believe the BLS's mystical numbers, it still becomes much more complicated. There are different unemployment catagories, U-3 reflects those fully employed, and is the number that is "advertised", currently 9.6%. U-6 reflects marginally employed and is currently 16.7%. But there are other catagories, like "extended benefits" where people are moved over to when their initial 26 weeks run out, although they are still unemployed and collecting.
And then there is Shadow Stats.com, a private site that tracks "true" unemployment at over 20%, probably the most accurate accounting of government statistics.
Hope that my short version, and a lot of your own research helps.
Link to BLS site and table: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Hope and change. Hope and change. Hope and change.
09-17-2010, 12:16 AM
09-17-2010, 05:42 AM
Count all workers that actually worked 40 or more hours the previous week divided by the entire population of the USA legal and illegal, less ages 0-17 and 65+.
Have no adjustemnts for vacations, family leaves, or any other reasons.
75 million / 215 million = 65% unemployed
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