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Chopstick
12-21-2010, 07:52 AM
<span style="color: #000099">Cut and paste drive by.</span>


Monday, 20 March 2000. Look out! Back when every witchdoctor had a PR agent and newspapers dutifully repeated their latest crystal ball incantation, it was reported (without so much as a caveat) that there would soon be no more white Christmases in London, and worse, soon “kids will not know snow”. Gone too would be the scenes that inspired glorious impressionist images, and lyrical poetry. Are you in tears yet? The travesty!

Pity the poor shop owners who were trying to order stock based on met office “forecasts”. Back in 2000, shop owners were not bothering to stock sledges.

No more snowmen in England!

h/t to Bernadette and Trevor who spotted this gem.


Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

By Charles Onians, 20th March 2000

Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain’s biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. “It was a bit of a first,” a spokesperson said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sort of heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in “London Snow” of it, “stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying”.

From The Independent March 2000

So how did those brave predictions pan out?

From The Independent this week: ten years later, Britain is trapped in a savage deep freeze. Records are being smashed (on the downside). In Wales the coolest day ever recorded in Llysdinam, Powys, was -11.2 recorded in 1921. This week minus 18!

And the cool arctic breeze is flowing, keeping those industrial freezer temperatures going for a bit longer. Those babies born in the year 2000, who would “not know snow”, are now ten years old and struggling with blizzards. In London it’s the earliest November snowfall for 17 years.

The witchdoctor predictions worked so much better when no one could record exactly what they said.

Cold comfort for a Britain stuck in the deep freeze

Temperatures plunge as low as -18C in Wales

Snow and ice combined to make the roads treacherous across swathes of the country and several airports, including Glasgow and Aberdeen, had to be closed yesterday. More than 40cm (16in) of snow fell in some parts of Scotland and up to 40cm blanketed parts of North-east England, but the coldest of the weather so far was felt in Wales. In Llysdinam, Powys, the temperature sank to -18C, the coldest on record for Wales in November and far below the previous low of -11.2 recorded in 1921. Northern Ireland also suffered its coldest November night ever, with -9.5 at Lough Fea. The previous record was -9C in 1978, the Met Office in London said.

In England, temperatures fell as low as -13.5C – at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire, while in the Scottish Highlands -15.3C was recorded, extremely cold but far short of the -23.3C reported at in Braemar in November 1919. The English record of -15.5C was set at Wycliffe in 1993.

Read more in The Independent

Meanwhile Anthony Watts points out that only a month ago the UK met office was predicting a mild winter. And Now the Met Office denies that it issues long range forecasts. It only does monthly outlooks (though they don’t seem to provide a link to that) and 100 year ultra long range reports of guaranteed catastrophes.
But wait, wait — there’s more!

Could it all be due to Global Warming? (Could anyone seriously suggest that?)

Of course they can, they did, and what’s the evidence? The “evidence” that extreme cold in Europe confirms the AGW theory, comes from the same (slightly improved) climate simulations which were outrageously wrong only ten years ago. Climate models have again, post hoc, demonstrated that they are flexible enough to hindcast nearly any small subset of the real world:

Strong disturbances in air stream flows would be the main reason behind frosty weather, said Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Ice melting in the eastern Arctic Ocean could create warmer layers of air that would in turn change air flows, he said.

“Should it occur these disturbances would triple the possibility of an extremely cold winter in Europe and northern Asia,” he said.

“Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming, but rather confirm it.”

Petoukhov and his colleagues at the institute supported their theory with simulations by supercomputers.

pooltchr
12-21-2010, 09:40 AM
Record cold in the UK....Football stadiums destroyed by snow in the US....record cold in Florida....We are on track for the coldest December in recorded history....



Where is it actually getting warmer??????????????


Steve

Stretch
12-21-2010, 10:52 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: pooltchr</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Record cold in the UK....Football stadiums destroyed by snow in the US....record cold in Florida....We are on track for the coldest December in recorded history....



Where is it actually getting warmer??????????????


Steve </div></div>

In Canada, THANKS!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

cushioncrawler
12-22-2010, 07:57 AM
I found an article that sayd that the aktual wordage woz az follows.
But nonetheless it would be interesting to see how Viner explains how winters from about 2000 to 2010 hav been very snowy.
It looks like he aint az clever az he thinx.
mac.



Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians
Monday, 20 March 2000

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant
snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days.
London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming
apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's
biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.

Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.

Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a
generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".

Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic
implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.

Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.

"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

Not any more, it seems.

Chopstick
12-22-2010, 08:38 AM
Climatologists are no different than krappynomists. They all have a million ways to explain what has already happened and why they were right all along. Nothing they say is going to happen ever does.

cushioncrawler
12-22-2010, 03:24 PM
Yeah -- krappynomix -- psychiatrix -- klimatix -- not az well scienced az theys thinx, at prezent -- its very early days for allovem (with due respekt to thems that are doing very good work, and thems that plays a cuesport).

I thort that (since 2000??) klimaxologists agree that GW will stuffup the ocean currents that keep England warm -- ie England will bekum icey -- but not necessaryly very snowy.
mac.

Chopstick
12-24-2010, 08:15 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cushioncrawler</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yeah -- krappynomix -- psychiatrix -- klimatix -- not az well scienced az theys thinx, at prezent -- its very early days for allovem (with due respekt to thems that are doing very good work, and thems that plays a cuesport).

<span style="color: #000099">There are a lot of people doing good work, but they are one hell of a long way from being able to make pronouncements. They are also many of them that are just plain stupid. I saw a crew on TV whose plan it was to build a fleet of ships that would blast jets of atomized sea water into the atmosphere to increase the reflectivity of clouds in the south pacific to cool off the planet. Well, what's is going to happen when the sun hits that? Did they miss the part about water vapor being the number one greenhouse gas?

Environmentalists all have good intentions but in reality there understanding of how things work is so small they have not even come to the point of realizing the magnitude of what they have left to learn. Take something simple like the forest fire management program in Yellowstone National park. Let's stop forest fires. Sounds like a good idea doesn't it. Save the forest. Well, nobody realized that fire is part of the natural cycle of the forest to clear out underbrush and old dead wood. When the inevitable and unpreventable fire finally did come, it burned so hot it sterilized the ground irrevocably altering the flora and fauna of the entire region forever. In the end, environmental programs, because of their incomplete understanding, do more damage than the problems they were trying to solve.

No. I do not want these people screwing around with the atmosphere. "Yeah but the scientists" That's what everyone says. What about the scientists who said firing off thermonuclear weapons in the atmosphere was OK? So, lighting up something hotter than the surface of the sun does not heat the atmosphere but my propane powered barbecue grill does.</span>



I thort that (since 2000??) klimaxologists agree that GW will stuffup the ocean currents that keep England warm -- ie England will bekum icey -- but not necessaryly very snowy.
mac.

<span style="color: #000099">That is correct and the Atlantic conveyor has shut down several times before. Man certainly had nothing to do with it back then. England is still there. Now, let me put it into perspective. We know more about the surface of the moon than we do about the bottom of the ocean. Do we really want a bunch of academic boneheads messing with it?

I do not believe environmentalism is bad. I am just saying that we should not be trying to alter the environment until we really know what we are doing.</span>
</div></div>

sack316
12-24-2010, 09:58 AM
Good post Chop.

Like you, I don't think the collective "we" really know as much as we'd like to think about the environment or mother nature. I don't think environmentalism is bad, I think we should do all we can to protect the Earth.

The non-environmentalists folly is lack or respect for Mother Nature. Yet the environmentalist unwittingly has the same lack of respect, except in the form of too little faith in her. Man, on both ends of the spectrum, seems to think he is more powerful than her... which I don't think has been the case once in history. And often our "fixes" to what we perceive as a problem are done without thought to the other problems our "fixes" will create (your forestry example was a very good one).

When it's been too hot in my apartment before, I've tried certain things to fix the problem I saw. Once upon a time my "fix" froze up the coils in my A/C unit... the end result was worse than the original problem itself.

Sack

cushioncrawler
12-24-2010, 04:45 PM
I dont giv one cent for humanitarian and social charitys -- but i am happy to giv $$$ for environmental groups.
Koz, in fakt, environmentalists are the ultimate humanitarians.
We dont really care for the prezent crop of lousy ignorant selfish superstitious overpopulated pink arsed apes -- but we care for the countless numbers of intelligent caring people that will hopefully liv in the next millions of yrs.
mac.