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sack316
01-08-2011, 01:12 AM
Should be a lot of good games this weekend... here's my quick thoughts and picks:

NY Jets at Indy (-2.5): Jets got to looking a little inconsistent at times. Indy is plagued with injuries but managed to win their way into the playoffs anyway. Rex Ryan has been talking (as usual), but it may only serve to motivate the wrong team. If The Jets running game gets going, they could easily win this one... but I'm thinking the Colt's D will stand up pretty well at least this one more time. I'm taking Colts to win and cover.

New Orleans (-10) at Seattle: The game that shouldn't be... and an example that will surely used by the NCAA to dispute the merits of a playoff system. Pretty cut and dry, even being on the road The Saints are a much better team and will win this game. But Seattle may have a chip on their shoulder. They'll be down, but I'm not big on double digit spreads in the NFL. Could be a junk time TD late to do it... but I'm taking Saints to win, with Seattle beating the spread though.

Baltimore (-3) at KC: Chiefs made a great turnaround this year. But the Ravens D is still the Ravens D, which is what January football is all about. Flacco is good at protecting the ball, and I worry what Weis' focus is going into this game now that he's leaving. I'm going Baltimore all the way on this one.

Green Bay at Philly (-2.5): I look for this to be the best game of the weekend. The Green Bay defense is playing lockdown football right now. But Vick has been the most dynamic playmaker this season. Aaron Rogers is good, but has only 1 playoff game under his belt (he played great, but lost). This may be our first look at the new OT rules for the postseason. I gotta pick the Pack to take this one home, though. As good as Vick has been overall, the GB defense is too opportunistic... Vick will play well, but not perfect. And this will be one of those games where one mistake could kill.

Sack

LWW
01-08-2011, 04:59 AM
IMHO taking the Seahawks and the points is one of ... if not the ... best play of the year.

LWW

pooltchr
01-08-2011, 08:12 AM
I agree with 3 of your picks...but I think the Iggles will pull it off. However, I will be pulling for the Pack.

Steve

eg8r
01-08-2011, 10:47 AM
My picks...

Indy over NYJ. I hate the Jets, what better reason to root for Indy. My hatred for Jets exceeds my hatred for Peyton. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

NO over Seattle. Seattle doesn't belong on the same field as the Saints let alone in the playoffs.

Baltimore over KC. I don't think KC defense can stop Baltimore as well as the Balitmore defense is capable of stopping the KC offense.

Philly over GB. I just cannot root against Mike Vick. Even though his last couple games have not been his best this has been a great year for him.

eg8r

bobroberts
01-08-2011, 12:17 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">My picks...

Indy over NYJ. I hate the Jets, what better reason to root for Indy. My hatred for Jets exceeds my hatred for Peyton. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

NO over Seattle. Seattle doesn't belong on the same field as the Saints let alone in the playoffs.

Baltimore over KC. I don't think KC defense can stop Baltimore as well as the Balitmore defense is capable of stopping the KC offense.

Philly over GB. I just cannot root against Mike Vick. Even though his last couple games have not been his best this has been a great year for him.

eg8r </div></div>

Why would you "hate" any team. Seems a little bit weird. I might not like a team such as Dallas because of their owner but the actual team ?
Jets over Indy
Saints over Seattle
Baltimore over KC
Green bay, Philly to me is a pickum. Not sure who wins that one.Depends on Vick.

sack316
01-08-2011, 01:02 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: pooltchr</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I agree with 3 of your picks...but I think the Iggles will pull it off. However, I will be pulling for the Pack.

Steve </div></div>

That's one I'm hoping my pick is wrong. Much more of an Eagles fan than a Pack fan. But that GB defense just looked so damn good week 17 against the bears, it would be a tough task for Vick at 100% and he's playing at about 80%.

I agree with Bob that this is a pickum... but I'm just thinking GB will force one extra mistake that Philly won't.

Sack

sack316
01-08-2011, 01:11 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">IMHO taking the Seahawks and the points is one of ... if not the ... best play of the year.

LWW </div></div>

Thanks Dub. NO has only won 4 games by more than 10 all season (TB, Carolina, St Louis, and yes... Seattle). But as I said, Seattle will probably play the hardest they have all year since NOBODY is picking them to even compete. They are at home. And double digit spreads in the pros are a scary thing!

It may not be a "legit cover" where they stay close all game (though it could). But I could easily see a scenario where NO is up by 14 or 15 and give up a late TD to spoil it. It SHOULD be a massacre, but I'm just not seeing it happening this time.

Sack

eg8r
01-08-2011, 01:20 PM
The word hate is an exaggeration and is being used through the eyes of the sports fan and not the individual. As a person I have nothing against those people. As a Florida Gator, Peyton Manning (loser of 4 straight games as a UT Vol against UF) goes down in history as one of the most evil people on the planet.

eg8r

eg8r
01-08-2011, 08:21 PM
Well the Saints game is a great example as to why I am not a gambling man. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r &lt;~~~Hoping I did not jinx the rest of my picks.

pooltchr
01-08-2011, 09:25 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well the Saints game is a great example as to why I am not a gambling man. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r &lt;~~~Hoping I did not jinx the rest of my picks. </div></div>

I don't think anybody saw that coming!

Steve

sack316
01-09-2011, 12:53 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: pooltchr</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well the Saints game is a great example as to why I am not a gambling man. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r &lt;~~~Hoping I did not jinx the rest of my picks. </div></div>

I don't think anybody saw that coming!

Steve </div></div>

Hey now... while I didn't see the upset coming, I called the right wager at least /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif Colts knocked me to 50% today though. I was right about their Defense actually doing their job... I sure didn't foresee Manning being held to under 20 points, though! Even being shorthanded, they were only held under 20 twice all year.

My fairly confident pick of today was a loser, and my very questionable pick held up. Maybe that's why I haven't bet on sports in a few years, and have stuck to analyzing and picking lol.

Really weird, looking back over about 8 seasons here. In years I am gambling I run at about 54% winning. years I'm not gambling but just doing picks, I'm up around 70%. Where is my genius when my money is at stake? lol

Sack

LWW
01-09-2011, 04:31 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: sack316</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It SHOULD be a massacre

Sack </div></div>

Actually there was no stat based reason to think it would be.

What drives spreads isn't stats ... it's human emotion.

All the book cares is that the money is split as close to even as possible between the two teams ... and the spread adjusts until that equilibrium is found. The book profits from the vig and doesn't care who wins.

My system tries to find the one play per week which is emotion driven and then jump on that game. This was the most irrational in months.

LWW

LWW
01-09-2011, 04:33 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: sack316</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Where is my genius when my money is at stake? lol

Sack </div></div>

Here's my guess ... when people bet money they tend to bet more on emotion than logic.

LWW

eg8r
01-09-2011, 08:41 AM
I am batting .000. Tough day for me.

eg8r

LWW
01-09-2011, 09:22 AM
I'm at 4 of 4 in my picks of the week.

Today I like the Pack and the Chefs, both against the spread.

LWW