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sack316
02-28-2011, 10:37 AM
I'm not as into basketball as I was years ago, but the trades all last week sure did make things a little more interesting. Anyone have any thoughts on how the NBA season may go down?

The East is just... weird. Was supposed to be Heat-Celtics all the way. But the Heat seem to have problems beating the big teams in big games. Celtics traded off some of their big man veteran presence (a sign they may make a move for Orlando's Howard in '12 maybe?). Meanwhile the Bulls just keep on winning all year and are only now getting back to full strength from some injuries to Noah and Boozer. Orlando and Atlanta can make some noise... and New York made the biggest splash getting Anthony, but I still think they lack in size too much to be able to get deep into the playoffs.

The west... well the pretty teams get all the love, but San Antonio has quietly dominated. Lakers seem to have a few issues, but until they get knocked off I suppose they are always the favorite. Dallas is good as usual, but will probably get upset in the playoffs as usual too. OKC got A LOT stronger last week and I could see them being contenders now. Portland is also a team that I think could shock a few people come playoff time.

Just my quick thoughts, if anyone cares to discuss a non-political thread here on this in more detail then let's do it!

Sack

pooltchr
02-28-2011, 10:49 AM
I probably pay even less attention than you to the NBA, but all indications are that Michael Jordan probably traded away the last spot in the playoffs this year when he traded Gerald Wallace away.

College basketball is just so much more intense than the pros. Did you see Virginia Tech knock off number 1 Duke this weekend? Now THAT was a basketball game!!

Steve

sack316
02-28-2011, 10:56 AM
I'm catching up on the weekend... I disappeared to help a friend house/dog-sit out at the river. Zero communication with the outside world (intentionally).

But yeah, the college season has really been heating up the last several weeks. Top ranked teams keep getting knocked off... seems nobody is a surefire runaway for March this year. I know I'll be struggling to put my bracket together when the time comes!

Sack

pooltchr
02-28-2011, 11:16 AM
True enough. Usually there are one or two teams that just seem to be way out ahead of the rest. This year things seem to be a lot closer. March is going to be interesting!

BTW, I am a big fan of the Hokies, as my brother-in-law holds a few team records for them when he played his college ball there. And it never breaks my heart to see Duke go down!

Steve

Soflasnapper
02-28-2011, 12:46 PM
Remember that the Heat is down two forwards, Udonis and the injury-striken Mike Miller, both of whom are very good team players, defensive players, rebounders, etc.

I view the next 10 games as a real decisive period of the season for the Heat, as they see nothing but contending teams over this stretch including SA twice.

I still think they're doing well, with the same record (I think) as LAL, within a game or so of Boston, despite their uneven start at 9-8, but since then the best record in bball, while Boston and LAL started on winning streaks more like their current records.

Boston will miss Perkins (the team was fairly demoralized by the trade I hear, and for good reason, as he anchored the defense with KG), and IF the Heat can muster the best record in the East, I think they can gut out the Eastern Conference Championship. If not, probably not.

SA or Dallas would be tougher for them in the finals than LAL.

sack316
02-28-2011, 04:14 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Remember that the Heat is down two forwards, Udonis and the injury-striken Mike Miller, both of whom are very good team players, defensive players, rebounders, etc.

I view the next 10 games as a real decisive period of the season for the Heat, as they see nothing but contending teams over this stretch including SA twice.

I still think they're doing well, with the same record (I think) as LAL, within a game or so of Boston, despite their uneven start at 9-8, but since then the best record in bball, while Boston and LAL started on winning streaks more like their current records.</div></div>

Yeah, they are doing well especially considering the less than stellar start. But this was also supposed to be the most dominant team since the old Bulls... and they are nowhere near that. I can't find the exact stat, but I saw on ESPN the other day where they are only like 1-9 (may have been 1-8) against the top records in the league and also a losing record in close games (2-6 in games decided by 3 or less).

No doubt they are the highest potential team, but I'm just not sure if they have "it" to go all the way this year from what I've seen... granted I don't 'study' basketball as I do baseball or football, though.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Boston will miss Perkins (the team was fairly demoralized by the trade I hear, and for good reason, as he anchored the defense with KG), and IF the Heat can muster the best record in the East, I think they can gut out the Eastern Conference Championship. If not, probably not. </div></div>

Yeah I was baffled by them letting Perkins go. They finally get their 5 main guys all together and healthy, and then let one of them go. This means they'll be asking an awful lot of an aged and vulnerable Shaq to get this done... and I just don't know if he's got it.

The only way the trade makes sense is if they are going to go after Howard in '12... but that doesn't do much for this season. For now I'll just have to assume their front office must know something the rest of us don't... otherwise that was just a dumb trade IMHO

Sack

sack316
02-28-2011, 04:23 PM
just adding one more stat I saw... Miami is only 14-15 against teams with winning records. That doesn't translate well into championship runs. Boston, Chicago, LA, Dallas, and SA all have winning records versus +.500 teams.

Sack

Soflasnapper
02-28-2011, 04:54 PM
Sack, almost all that is right.

However, the close game figures have changed, and reversed to a positive record, more wins now in close ones than losses, but you are right that it was a dismal loss record in them before.

For Boston, don't forget the OTHER O'Neal, Jermaine, and then the guys they also got (who I know nothing about whatsoever).

The Heat are missing a big time large low post player, running the three-headed monster center and just recently sitting old Big Z in favor of starting the ancient Dampier, with the younger, more active Joel Anthony, getting spotty minutes.

It would really help them to have a reliable shot-blocker back there to help with elite guards' penetrations of the lane.

I make Chicago the dark horse to win the East regular season behind either Boston or Miami to win the East. Whoever gets the home court in the East will benefit from whomever reaches them having a ferocious dog-fight match up to get there also.

sack316
02-28-2011, 06:23 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

However, the close game figures have changed, and reversed to a positive record, more wins now in close ones than losses, but you are right that it was a dismal loss record in them before.</div></div>

The close games stat I quoted was for 3 pts or less and was current as of today. However I feel a "close" game is subject... as a 5pt loss is really close when we factor in fouling to stop the clock and such... so that record may well have swung into their favor now, I'm honestly not sure.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">For Boston, don't forget the OTHER O'Neal, Jermaine, and then the guys they also got (who I know nothing about whatsoever).</div></div>

I used to be really high on Jermaine O'Neal when he was with Indy a few years back... but he just seems too injury prone now and has really fallen off. If he can get back to old form he will be a great presence... but right now all I see is two O'Neals and not enough quality minutes spent on the floor between them. I'm rooting for Boston because I do really like their big 3 and Rondo.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The Heat are missing a big time large low post player, running the three-headed monster center and just recently sitting old Big Z in favor of starting the ancient Dampier, with the younger, more active Joel Anthony, getting spotty minutes.

It would really help them to have a reliable shot-blocker back there to help with elite guards' penetrations of the lane.</div></div>

If Miami just has that one consistent big man in the middle, THEN I wouldn't know who could beat them

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I make Chicago the dark horse to win the East regular season behind either Boston or Miami to win the East. Whoever gets the home court in the East will benefit from whomever reaches them having a ferocious dog-fight match up to get there also. </div></div>

Yeah I'm really liking Chicago too... they seem hungry and play well as a team. They were great even with Boozer and Noah out of the lineup, now that they are back they should be even better once they get back into playing shape (Noah was tiring quick in one game I watched recently).

But then again it's the NBA, so who knows come playoff time. The good teams tend to just coast on into the postseason trying to limit the minutes of their big guns so they'll be rested for showtime. So while Chicago is leaving it all on the court most every night, the hiccups we see from MIA or BOS now and then may not be something we see in the playoffs.

Sack

Soflasnapper
02-28-2011, 08:40 PM
Playoff ball is different, with matchups, adjustments, and the odd injury playing major factors in ways that just don't happen that way in the regular season.

I'm partial to Boston myself, and their professionalism and 'been-there' experience may just get them that next ring. For surely they have Miami's number so far.

hondo
02-28-2011, 10:49 PM
Big mistake trading Perkins.
Championship chances went down the drain with that trade.

JohnnyD
03-01-2011, 03:53 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: hondo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Big mistake trading Perkins.
Championship chances went down the drain with that trade. </div></div>He was a very good player for them and will be missed.

LWW
03-01-2011, 05:30 PM
Is the NBA still in bidniss?

LWW

hondo
03-02-2011, 06:25 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Is the NBA still in bidniss?

LWW </div></div>

Hard to keep track of all that, isn't it?
You're a very busy person.

JohnnyD
03-02-2011, 06:30 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: hondo</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Is the NBA still in bidniss?

LWW </div></div>

Hard to keep track of all that, isn't it?
You're a very busy person. </div></div>
He has been very busy as usual slaying myths.
Jesus loves hondo.
Love and peace always
JohnnyD

LWW
03-02-2011, 05:02 PM
In aitch's defense, all he has to keep track of is what day the gubmint robs his grandkids to buy his vote.

LWW

JohnnyD
03-03-2011, 07:31 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">In aitch's defense, all he has to keep track of is what day the gubmint robs his grandkids to buy his vote.

LWW </div></div>Ohh my!

LWW
03-03-2011, 08:13 AM
Back on topic ... San Antonio seems to be the team to beat.

LWW

Soflasnapper
03-03-2011, 03:58 PM
IF THEY STAY HEALTHY, San Antonio is the team to beat, absolutely.

But already you have Tony Parker out 2-4 weeks with a bruised calf, and Genobli and Duncan are ancient by pro athlete standards and how long they've been in the league.

It always seems a ripoff when a better team loses because they don't have all their pieces available on the court, but it's a reality in the league (many of my favorites have gone down that way over the years).

LWW
03-04-2011, 06:09 AM
Injuries are always an issue in every sport.

LWW

sack316
03-07-2011, 12:04 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
I view the next 10 games as a real decisive period of the season for the Heat, as they see nothing but contending teams over this stretch including SA twice.
</div></div>

Not a good start to that stretch. Downed by the Knicks, Magic, Spurs, and Bulls all in a row... with 3 of the 4 being at home. Chicago has a relatively easy schedule from here on out, while Miami's is no picnic for the next few weeks. They'll be doing good if they can just manage to not drop to a #4 seed now.

Sack

LWW
03-07-2011, 03:59 PM
I would love to see da Bulls back on top.

LWW

Soflasnapper
03-08-2011, 05:02 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: sack316</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
I view the next 10 games as a real decisive period of the season for the Heat, as they see nothing but contending teams over this stretch including SA twice.
</div></div>

Not a good start to that stretch. Downed by the Knicks, Magic, Spurs, and Bulls all in a row... with 3 of the 4 being at home. Chicago has a relatively easy schedule from here on out, while Miami's is no picnic for the next few weeks. They'll be doing good if they can just manage to not drop to a #4 seed now.

Sack </div></div>

Quite true. Miserable start, and it doesn't get much easier for a while.

I think Spoelstra ought to get the guys on some hypnotic or subliminal tapes to restore their confidence to execute their final game plays.

They are 1-16 shooting in games with 10 sec or less to go, where they could tie or take the lead. If this were ONLY 5-16, prolly 4 games better record, and 5-16 would be relatively miserable still. Their closing percentage in this situation is the worst in the league, even having two of the premier go-to guys to score at crunch time.

Psychological, IMO.

sack316
03-08-2011, 09:27 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Quite true. Miserable start, and it doesn't get much easier for a while.

I think Spoelstra ought to get the guys on some hypnotic or subliminal tapes to restore their confidence to execute their final game plays.

They are 1-16 shooting in games with 10 sec or less to go, where they could tie or take the lead. If this were ONLY 5-16, prolly 4 games better record, and 5-16 would be relatively miserable still. Their closing percentage in this situation is the worst in the league, even having two of the premier go-to guys to score at crunch time.

Psychological, IMO. </div></div>

Yeah I'd vote psychological too. I saw that same stat you cited on ESPN earlier, couldn't believe they were THAT bad there.

I still think a good big man presence in the middle would do wonders. Just somebody who is a threat in the post, to draw even on defender around somewhere would open up a lot. The last sequence vs. the Bulls the other day is a good example. All they did was close off the lane, and forced James into an uncomfortable shot. A big man inside to lure a defender or two to the opposite side would open up a lot in such a situation.

Sack