View Full Version : Double-dip in homeprices, manufacturing slowdown

05-31-2011, 09:05 PM
Hows that Hope and Change feeling???

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news...408.cms?curpg=2 (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/double-dip-in-homeprices-manufacturing-slowdown-point-to-sluggish-us-economy/articleshow/8671408.cms?curpg=2)

<span style="color: #000000">NEW YORK: A double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the US economy's soft patch could become protracted.

"The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.

The US economy grew at a tepid 1.8 per cent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and these fresh signs suggest the recovery is still struggling to gain momentum.

The consumer also appears to be struggling, with data last week showing consumer spending was crimped by high gasoline prices in April. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of US economic activity.

A drop in a gauge of business activity in the US Midwest added to other regional reports that have pointed to slower growth in manufacturing this month amid supply chain disruptions from the major earthquake in Japan in March.

It also boded poorly for a national factory report due on Wednesday, which is expected to slow, and casts a cloud ahead of a report on national employment on Friday.

"While weakness in manufacturing may simply reflect auto parts shortages, this is the fifth regional manufacturing index to fall sharply in May," wrote Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.

"(It) reinforces the general sense the economy is losing steam," he added.

US stocks trimmed gains after the consumer confidence and manufacturing data, but Wall Street was higher in late day trading as the data was outweighed by optimism that new financial aid for debt-laden Greece was on the horizon.


US single-family home prices dropped in March to fall below the low hit in April 2009 during the financial crisis, a closely watched survey showed.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 per cent from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' expectations.

A glut of houses for sale along with foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand have kept the housing market on the ropes even as other areas of the economy start to recover.

Home prices had been supported last spring by a tax credit, but the housing market has struggled since the credit expired. Prices in the 20 cities fell 3.6 per cent year over year, worse than expectations for a decline of 3.3 per cent.

"The declines sustained in the last 12 months have almost erased the gains of the previous 12 months," said Cary Leahey, managing director at Decision Economics in New York. "The housing market is treading backward but not drowning."

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 60.8 in May from a revised 66.0 in April, well below a median forecast of 66.5.

Consumers took a more negative view of business and labor market conditions, while inflation expectations jumped after easing in April.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer dropped to 56.6 in May from 67.6 in April, its lowest reading since November 2009 and missing forecasts for a reading of 62.6.

The index of new orders sank to 53.5 from 66.3, while the employment component fell to 60.8 from 63.7.

Economists expect Wednesday's larger ISM manufacturing survey to ease to 57.7 in May from 60.4 the month before. Friday's US payrolls data is forecast to show the economy added 180,000 jobs in May, easing from 244,000 in April. </span>

05-31-2011, 09:14 PM

<span style="color: #000000"><span style='font-size: 17pt'>Consumers More Glum as Housing Double-Dips
By Steve Christ
Tuesday, May 31st, 2011


Here’s the latest word from Cheery-Ville, where it’s getting harder and harder to slap a happy face on the U.S. economy.

Heck, even the people are buying it anymore…if they ever really did.

According to The Conference Board this morning, the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 60.8 in the lowest reading of the last six months. That was well below expectations of a move in the opposite direction as the consensus among economist was for an increase to 67.

“Consumers are considerably more apprehensive about future business and labor market conditions as well as their income prospects,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. She also said fears over inflation, which eased in April, picked up again in May.

That puts the bellwether index still far below a reading of 90 that indicates a healthy economy. In fact, it hasn’t even approached that level since the recession began in December 2007.

Meanwhile, the news in housing today only confirmed what we have known all along: The housing double-dip is well underway….

From Bloomberg by Bob Willis entitled: Home Prices is 20 U.S. cities Fall to 8-year Low

“Home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped in March to the lowest level since 2003, showing housing remains mired in a slump almost two years into the economic recovery.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.6 percent from March 2010, the biggest year-over-year decline since November 2009, the group said today in New York. At 138.16, the gauge was the weakest since March 2003.

A backlog of foreclosures poised to reach the market means prices may stay depressed, dissuading builders from taking on new-home construction projects. Unemployment at 9 percent and stricter lending conditions are signs that any recovery in housing may take years.

“With the foreclosure pipeline still full to bursting, it’s hard to see this downward pressure on prices abating,” said Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices continue to fall this year and maybe into next year.”

Nationally, home prices decreased 5.1 percent in the first quarter from the same time in 2010, and were down 4.2 percent from the previous three months, the biggest one-quarter decrease since the first three months of 2009. At 125.41, the index was the lowest since the second quarter of 2002.”

By the way, the one thing that is up is the participation rate in food stamp program. All told, 44.199 million people are now standing in the modern day equivalent of the soup line.

That’s marks an all-time high.

food stamps


The fantasy recovery goes on…</span>

05-31-2011, 10:06 PM
Sounds like a great time to buy... except here in NYC still expensive.

06-01-2011, 02:23 AM
I am sort of hoping that the usofa goze down.
Xcepting that it will take most of the oight with it.

06-01-2011, 04:39 AM


06-01-2011, 06:23 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: nAz</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Sounds like a great time to buy... except here in NYC still expensive. </div></div>

It is. Most of the buying going on is the wealthy purchasing foreclosures and hedging their bets on a housing recovery occurring in the next 5 years.

9/11 was a good time to buy in NYC.

Gayle in MD
06-01-2011, 11:48 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: nAz</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Sounds like a great time to buy... except here in NYC still expensive. </div></div>

This is definitely the time to buy.

The National Association of Home Builders, believes that this is finally the bottom of the Bush/Repiglican "wonership society" Housing bubble/Wall St. Crash of late 06, when the Bush Recession, AND the Housing Bubble burst, actually began, under a Repiglican blank check Congress, and a Repiglican Administration.

Also, some areas are starting to pick up...which many in the Real Estate Industry, say, means expectations for increasing home sales between summer and fall, when most people actually buy homes.

Tuesday, May 31st, 2011, 8:03 am

The average price of a single-family home reached a new low in the first quarter and is now at 2002 levels, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index.

The downturn is the most acute since prices began falling several years ago.

The index fell 4.2% in the first three months of 2011 after declining 3.6% in the fourth quarter. Analysts said the first-quarter index decreased 5.1% from a year earlier.

For March, the index fell from a year ago in 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller with a dozen MSAs reaching new lows. <span style='font-size: 17pt'>Only Washington posted a monthly gain, as the index for home prices in the nation's capital rose 1.1% from February and was up 4.3% from a year ago. The index for Seattle home prices inched up 0.1% in March from the month prior yet is 7.5% lower than a year earlier.</span>The S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city composite index declined 2.9% in March from a year ago and the 20-city index fell 3.6%.

"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," according to David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee. "Home prices continue their downward spiral with no relief in sight."

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>The 12 MSAs that fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle in March include: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., and Tampa, Fla.</span>

"The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time homebuyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession," Blitzer said. "Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains."

On Friday, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales fell substantially in April with unusual weather and continued economic softness hindering a recovery in the housing mark. The trade association said its index, which is based on contracts signed, decreased 11.6% to 81.9 for April from a downwardly revised 92.6 for March. NAR said the index is 26.5% lower than a year ago, when homebuyers where rushing to qualify for the expiring federal tax credit.


06-01-2011, 01:40 PM
You are right on both accounts. It is a great time to buy and NYC will never get any cheaper as long as government is allowed to continue to tax for inefficiencies.