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View Full Version : 'Lucky' women wins lottery 4 times, but actually..



Soflasnapper
08-08-2011, 01:04 PM
I remain skeptical, but for what it's worth:

'Lucky' woman who won lottery four times outed as Stanford University statistics PhD

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...l#ixzz1USw2UPyA (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023514/Lucky-woman-won-lottery-times-outed-Stanford-University-statistics-PhD.html#ixzz1USw2UPyA)

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">First, she won $5.4 million, then a decade later, she won $2 million, then two years later $3 million and finally, in the spring of 2008, she hit a $10 million jackpot.

The odds of this has been calculated at one in eighteen septillion and luck like this could only come once every quadrillion years.

Harper's reporter Nathanial Rich recently wrote an article about Ms Ginther, which questioned the validity of this 'luck' with which she attributes her multiple lottery wins to.

First, he points out, Ms Ginther is a former math professor with a PhD from Stanford University specialising in statistics.

A professor at the Institute for the Study of Gambling & Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno, told Mr Rich: 'When something this unlikely happens in a casino, you arrest ‘em first and ask questions later.'

[...]

Three of her wins, all in two-year intervals, were by scratch-off tickets bought at the same mini mart in the town of Bishop.

Mr Rich proceeds to detail the myriad ways in which Ms Ginther could have gamed the system - including the fact that she may have figured out the algorithm that determines where a winner is placed in each run of scratch-off tickets.

He believes that after Ms Ginther figured out the algorithm, it wouldn’t be too difficult to then determine where the tickets would be shipped, as the shipping schedule is apparently fixed, and there were a few sources she could have found it out from.

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eg8r
08-08-2011, 06:39 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">He believes that after Ms Ginther figured out the algorithm, it wouldn’t be too difficult to then determine where the tickets would be shipped, as the shipping schedule is apparently fixed, and there were a few sources she could have found it out from.
</div></div>Yes but they never tell you what the chances are the winning tickets are actually delivered to the same store, which they were. Also, they never tell you how she could have figured out how many tickets in the roll have been sold. Surely she did not figure out the shipment and then buy the entire roll. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif Maybe she just has a buddy that works at the store and ran a count for her. They could split the winnings and who really cares?

The lottery is a tax on the stupid and I don't feel bad for the stupid people blowing their money on lottery tickets and get beat out by someone actually using their brains.

eg8r

cushioncrawler
08-08-2011, 06:51 PM
Hmmmmmmm -- something iznt korrekt here.
The odds of winning one (or any) lottery iz or kan be allmost 1.00000. All u need do iz to buy all the tickets.
The odds of winning the lottery kan be zero, if u dont buy a ticket.

I kood back a winner in every race at the track, every Saturday. But i would walk out loozing about 1/4 of my money.
No -- wait a mo -- i would walk out with say 0.75^8 (if 8 races). Which kums to 0.1001. So, i would looz 90% of my money.
mac.

cushioncrawler
08-08-2011, 07:06 PM
If Ginther spent $100K on tickets every week for 30 years she would expekt to win i think 2 or 3 times.
Plus she kood expekt to win an even greater amount in minor prizes.
But of course she would be out of pocket overall.
mac.

Soflasnapper
08-09-2011, 09:54 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">He believes that after Ms Ginther figured out the algorithm, it wouldn’t be too difficult to then determine where the tickets would be shipped, as the shipping schedule is apparently fixed, and there were a few sources she could have found it out from.
</div></div>Yes but they never tell you what the chances are the winning tickets are actually delivered to the same store, which they were. Also, they never tell you how she could have figured out how many tickets in the roll have been sold. Surely she did not figure out the shipment and then buy the entire roll. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif Maybe she just has a buddy that works at the store and ran a count for her. They could split the winnings and who really cares?

The lottery is a tax on the stupid and I don't feel bad for the stupid people blowing their money on lottery tickets and get beat out by someone actually using their brains.

eg8r </div></div>

I am prepared to believe that rumors now of her knowing how to do this are incorrect. Since that is a fantastic claim (seems impossible).

However, it seems equally or more impossible that this happened by chance. So I'm stuck in the middle here...

Leaning to probably some kind of analysis and/or trick, if not the one suggested in the article.

eg8r
08-09-2011, 12:34 PM
What is the law based on making educated guesses as to when to buy a scratch off ticket at the exact same store every couple years?

If there is an investigation and no one is found guilty of any real wrongdoing other than actually figuring out the algorithm then I would applaud this lady for using her brain to enhance her wealth.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
08-09-2011, 12:59 PM
If completely the result of analysis, then I would agree with you.

More likely, in my view, she used insider information, and perhaps paid for it ahead of time, or with the proceeds of her wins. That would be problematic, and possibly illegal, putting her total wins in jeopardy of forfeiture.