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Soflasnapper
08-13-2011, 06:29 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Blog
August 09, 2011 9:34 AM The Public Really Doesn’t Like the Republican Party

By Mark Kleiman

I know I’m the original Cock-Eyed Optimist, but the latest CNN poll results suggest that it wasn’t completely cock-eyed to imagine that the Debt Ceiling nonsense would hurt the Republicans and the Teahadis in the eyes of the public.

Between mid-June and early August, the GOP went from 41% favorable/55% unfavorable (already their worst score since just after the Clinton impeachment) to 33%F/59%UF, their worst score ever. (The Dems held steady at 47/47.)

The GOP score is actually worse than the Tea Party score of 31/51, also an all-time worst.

So maybe we should start saying “GOP downgrade” rather than “Tea Party downgrade.” Either way, the public seems to have figured out who deserves the blame.

Update Gallup shows Obama going from trailing “generic Republican” 39-47 in July to leading 45-39 now. No, it wasn’t “eleven-dimensional chess.” It was giving the voters a good look at the alternative. I think it worked.

[Cross-posted at The Reality-Based Community]
Mark Kleiman is a professor of public policy at the University of California Los Angeles. </div></div>

Link to the discussed CNN poll (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/09/poll.aug9.pdf)

cushioncrawler
08-13-2011, 07:35 PM
Teahadis -- i like that word. Other possibilitys......

Tealiban. TeALIBAN.
TeaBaggies.
Teabaggers.
mac.

LWW
08-14-2011, 04:32 AM
Did you look past seeing the answer you wanted to see and notice the many flaws of this loaded poll?

Of course you didn't.

Soflasnapper
08-14-2011, 12:09 PM
I provided the link to the poll.

Any one individual poll has limited value. When several polls show the same thing, the value of that finding grows.

Do you have polls showing an opposite finding? More than one?

LWW
08-14-2011, 03:18 PM
There are many polls on this topic.

The issues I have with this poll are that:

1 - It tells a tale of distaste for the GOP, which I share, while ignoring that what the poll really tells us is that the people disapprove of democrooks ... and rethuglicans ... and Boehner ... and Pelosi ... and Reid ... and McConnell.

2 - They polled 1,938 folks ... only 930 of which seem to be registered voters?

3 - By the averages, when they break out answers by party affiliation, the poll was obviously loaded (D) heavey ... and 18-34 heavy.

4 - Questions 4 and 5 had no rural area respondents. This tells us that first off, these questions were front loaded to urban/suburban areas to get the desired result ... and that the questions 1/2/3 and questions 4/5 had different pools of people polled.

I don't argue that the public is sick of the GOP ... I see them as cowards and democrook-lite mostly myself ... but I can see that this poll was rigged to get a preordained set of "TRUTHS" and then presented in a partisan fashion.

If you are truly objective you can surely see this.

Soflasnapper
08-14-2011, 07:56 PM
Those are considered objections, perhaps, and would be fair observations, if they were true.

I think you've misread what is being said, as to what these numbers mean, pretty much across the board.

It certainly does give all the leaders of the parties the same question treatment, and both parties, the same question treatment.

If the point however is to gauge the change in responses due to the recent events, then the greater change, the more it will be in the headline or executive summary discussion of the findings, and if no change, kinda boring to mention the null result. Both Pelosi and Reid were already at low approval ratings prior to this, and that number hardly moved, either as to a drop in approval, or any big increase in disapproval. The Dem Party came in at 47/47, not a big negative margin of disapproval.

Just as a matter of pointing out whose numbers DID change significantly after these recent events (compared to their most recent ratings prior to these events), it just happens that the GOP leaders, the GOP itself, and the TP were the biggest movers (and that motion was down in approval, up in disapproval, by a lot).

2) This isn't remarkable. It's typical for some kinds of questions to routinely use the all adult screen instead of the tighter RV or LV screens. Evidently, this poll has historically used both AA and RV reporting.

3) No, there is nothing to tell from the numbers as to who was polled being more heavily D or R. I think you're misreading the percentages (which are approval %s, or my rep deserves to be re-elected %s, NOT percentages of the samples of Rs and Ds who say it). Same with the claim that there were lots of the young. These results don't say anything about their ages (again, the %s given are their ANSWERS as to approve/disapprove, deserve re-election/don't deserve it).

4) As the heading for those results says in writing, those are results from half of the sample populace. If you notice, the N/A is given for broad areas of the country as well (the NE gets some, the West gets some), on some questions as well. It doesn't mean that none of those polled were from rural areas (or the NE or the West), but that in the half sample for which those particular results are shown, there were none IN THAT HALF OF THE SAMPLE POPULATION.

LWW
08-15-2011, 02:27 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Those are considered objections, perhaps, and would be fair observations, if they were true.

I think you've misread what is being said, as to what these numbers mean, pretty much across the board.
</div></div>

There you go blindly following twhat the regime tells you to believe.

Again.

DId you drill into the data?

Of course not.

Soflasnapper
08-15-2011, 11:10 AM
Nobody told me how to read or interpret the poll except you. When I read it again, I didn't find anything supporting your claims. So, you're right to advise against taking peoples' words for things instead of looking into them yourself, which I did, and found that listening to you would be a mistake (again).

Tell me what in that polling report told you how many young people were included, considering you said they were over-represented.

Soflasnapper
08-16-2011, 04:08 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Those are considered objections, perhaps, and would be fair observations, if they were true.

I think you've misread what is being said, as to what these numbers mean, pretty much across the board.
</div></div>

There you go blindly following twhat the regime tells you to believe.

Again.

DId you drill into the data?

Of course not. </div></div>

Waiting on that drilling report!

Show me what an idjit I am for not seeing where they mentioned the number of younger people in the surveyed sample of the population.

LWW
08-16-2011, 04:17 PM
I gave it to you.

You ignored it in favor of the spoon delivered data.

IOW ... nothing new here.

Soflasnapper
08-16-2011, 04:43 PM
You gave me a statement, without referencing any data.

I've asked you to tell me THE DATA you based this on.

Here's a hint: tell me which PAGE of the linked poll you're relying on for your wholly fact-free (so far) claims.

I think you've made statements contrary to the facts shown in the polling margins of error.

The larger the sample, the smaller the stated margin of error. The smaller the sample, the larger the stated margin of error.

Now look through the columns again at the margin of error differences among the various split-out cohorts.

The margin of error for the youngest cohort is always largest, meaning the youngest cohort is the SMALLEST of the cohorts sampled.

Other than this clue, there are NO statements of the composition of the sample group, other than what is on the first page, which shows the number of them, and the sub-total among that number of RVs.

If you think that's inaccurate, tell me the page number and data you rely on to make that judgment.

LWW
08-17-2011, 02:34 AM
Again ... read your own data.

They have rural voters answering some questions in large numbers ... and not existing in others.

It's using mainly non registered voters.

It's front loaded with the youth vote.

There isn't a single page, it's throughout.

Their explanation is hyper partisan.

But, I have a disadvantage as I read the whole thing ... yet you refuse to and blame me because you prefer the spoon fed synopsis that you posted?

Gayle in MD
09-14-2011, 10:22 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Blog
August 09, 2011 9:34 AM The Public Really Doesn’t Like the Republican Party

By Mark Kleiman

I know I’m the original Cock-Eyed Optimist, but the latest CNN poll results suggest that it wasn’t completely cock-eyed to imagine that the Debt Ceiling nonsense would hurt the Republicans and the Teahadis in the eyes of the public.

Between mid-June and early August, the GOP went from 41% favorable/55% unfavorable (already their worst score since just after the Clinton impeachment) to 33%F/59%UF, their worst score ever. (The Dems held steady at 47/47.)

The GOP score is actually worse than the Tea Party score of 31/51, also an all-time worst.

So maybe we should start saying “GOP downgrade” rather than “Tea Party downgrade.” Either way, the public seems to have figured out who deserves the blame.

Update Gallup shows Obama going from trailing “generic Republican” 39-47 in July to leading 45-39 now. No, it wasn’t “eleven-dimensional chess.” It was giving the voters a good look at the alternative. I think it worked.

[Cross-posted at The Reality-Based Community]
Mark Kleiman is a professor of public policy at the University of California Los Angeles. </div></div>

Link to the discussed CNN poll (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/09/poll.aug9.pdf) </div></div>


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