View Full Version : About that record hot summer ...

09-04-2011, 12:21 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><span style='font-size: 11pt'>I've noticed that many Americans - members of the nation that dominates TRF visits - tend to extrapolate the events in the U.S. to the whole globe. And because the U.S. has seen a pretty warm weather, many people think that the Northern Hemisphere has experienced a warm summer.</span>

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>In the U.K., they have seen the coldest, cloudiest, and wettest summer holidays since 1993.</span> The London Met nostalgically remembers the heat waves in 2006 that were followed by lousy summer seasons; Summer 2011 was arguably the worst one of them, they say. If the correlation with the weather in the winter will continue, Britain will see a cold winter, too.

<span style='font-size: 11pt'>What about the adjacent island, McIreland? Well, Ireland has gone through the coldest June in 40 years, coldest July in 50 years, and coldest August in 25 years. It's plausible that the average of these three months were the lowest period since the records began in 1851.</span> However, the Irish summer wasn't wet.

Somewhat less extremely, <span style='font-size: 11pt'>Czechia witnessed the coldest summer in 20 years</span>, too. This can be nicely seen in the number of tropical days. Before the middle of August, the average weather station only saw 1 tropical day. The previous 7 days were warm and about 5 more tropical days were added but it's cold again so we surely can't catch up with 12 tropical days in 2010. The last 10 days of July were 3 °C below the normal. The precipitation in July was 1.6 times higher than the normal.

To be sure, not all states in America have been as hot as Texas. <span style='font-size: 11pt'>Oregon recorded the second coldest summer weather since the measurements began in 1891 - the coldest one was in 1916.</span>

Some people say that those things don't matter but they do. It's the actual weather that actually matters at every moment - not some arbitrarily constructed, contrived averages. Because we keep on experiencing the same range and distribution of temperatures and other quantities as we used to decades ago, some shifts of some averages - even if they existed - can't possibly be relevant for anything we care about.

The weather is more important than the climate. The climate focuses on averages etc. but as long as the averages shift by much less than the normal natural variations of the weather, these shifts of the averages cannot be important, whatever their reason is.</div></div>

OH NOEZ! (http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/coldest-summer-in-20-years-or-so.html)

09-04-2011, 06:28 PM
This man is correct to say that localized heat (or cold, for that matter) doesn't tell the story as to the entire world's temperatures.

Having made that clear, he then proceeds to make what amounts to the same error, by mentioning other anecdotal reports of some other regional temperatures. Which also don't tell the story as to the entire world's temperatures.

To say something about WORLD temperature, one should rely on world temperatures (in total). Not just land temperatures, but where the largest part of the surface of the earth is located, in the oceans and seas.

Here's a look at all of that: from NOAA. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/)

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Global Highlights

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for July 2011 was the seventh warmest on record, at 16.37°C (61.43°F), which is 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F).

The July worldwide land surface temperature was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F)—the fifth warmest July on record.

The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.47°C (0.85°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F)—the 11th warmest July on record.

Neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present during July 2011. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.

For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 14.31°C (57.82°F) was the 11th warmest January–July period on record. This value is 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Year-to-date (January – July)

The January – July 2011 map of temperature anomalies shows that anomalous warm temperatures were present over much of the world, with the exception of cooler-than-average conditions across the northwestern United States, southwestern Canada, most of Australia, part of southwestern Russia, northern Kazakhstan, eastern Mongolia, southern China, and large parts of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for January–July period was the 11th warmest such period on record. This value is 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average. Separately, the average worldwide land surface temperature ranked as the 8th warmest on record, while the worldwide average ocean surface temperature ranked as the 11th warmest January–July on record.</div></div>