View Full Version : How long will it take?

10-07-2011, 08:19 AM
The Western Roman Empire fell in 492 AD.

After decades of barbarian rule on the continent, the first post Roman war began in 553 AD.

From then, until 1945, Europe had 55 years of war and 1,337 years of military conflict on the Euro continent itself.

When you add in foreign wars of empire, Europe never new peace until it was forced upon them by the Pax Americana. A total of 234 conflicts on the continent of Europe itself.

There were 10 more conflicts during the US-NATO Cold War.

Since the fall of the USSR there have been 24 more.

Once the US begins to reduce it's Euro military presence in an effort to get a grip on it's massive deficit ... brought about by decades of stupidonomic policy ... I'm wondering how long it will be until the Euros begin another major continental land war?

I will be shocked if it takes 5 years.

EURO HISTORY (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe)

10-07-2011, 12:32 PM
So who's going to attack whom, and for what reason?

I don't really see it.

France and Germany are getting along as well as ever, since the Vichy occupation government was the puppet for Germany.

England is on her arse, and is undergoing enforced downsizing of what is already a shrunken ability to project force.

No one else actually in Europe has much military capability, or budget room to do a big buildup.

Turkey is your sole live option to participate in a war (and I'd think them in Asia Minor, not Europe, although surely in the periphery).

It's far more likely that as 'the kings of the west,' we'd find Europe joining a multinational military force to impose an unwelcome peace settlement on Israel through an international peacekeeping mission, which I would agree might occasion a war, even Armaggedon.

But in the Levant, not Europe. (Turkey's now mad enough at Israel to possibly join such an effort as well.)

10-07-2011, 12:36 PM
Have you seen what radical Islam has done to Israel?

Do you believe an Islamic Germany and France ... inevitable by their own admissions ... will be kind to Rome?

How the Shia vs Sunni front?

And as to France vs Germany ... their "GETTING ALONG" is due directly to the Pax Americana.

Did you you witness what happened in eastern Europe when the Pax Sovietski ended?

Oooops ... I forgot. Your internet doesn't use the google.

10-07-2011, 12:48 PM
The wars in the former Yugoslavia are the only ones I can think of in the aftermath of the fall of the SU. There were three bitterly disputing factions there, the Serbs, the Croats, and the Bosnians, with three differing religions among them. Their longstanding aspirations had been brutally quashed by Marshall Tito's iron hand, and absent him, and Soviet sponsorship, yes, those simmering resentments exploded into war.

But did Poland attack the Czech Republic? East Germany attack West Germany? Where are the rest of the conflicts?

Maybe down the road some 20 years or more, there will be enough accumulation of internal European grievances to spark a war, but for now, again I say, I don't see it.

France and Germany are the key leaders of the EU, and they have now peacefully intertwined their politics and their economies for decades (if originally under American pressure, I won't disagree). Moreover, look at the supply problems of the NATO forces in waging a very small military action against an essentially unarmed (or rather, swiftly disarmed) Libya. They ran short of war materiel, and were quite strained in this little version of a war.

10-07-2011, 01:09 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The wars in the former Yugoslavia are the only ones I can think of in the aftermath of the fall of the SU.</div></div>

Nope ... your internet still doesn't use the google.

1989 Romanian Revolution
1991 Ten-Day War
1991-1992 South Ossetian War of Independence
1991-1993 Georgian Civil War
1991-1995 Croatian War of Independence
1992 War of Transnistria
1992 Ossetian-Ingush conflict
1992-1993 First War in Abkhazia
1992-1995 Bosnian War
1994-1996 First Chechen War
1998-1999 Kosovo War
1998-present Republican Dissidents Conflict
1998 Second War in Abkhazia
1999 Dagestan War
1999-2009 Second Chechen War
1999-2001 Insurgency in the Preševo Valley
2001 2001 insurgency in the Republic of Macedonia
2002 Perejil Island crisis
2004 Unrest in Kosovo
2004 Adjara crisis
2007 Civil war in Ingushetia
2008 War in South Ossetia
2009-present Insurgency in the North Caucasus

10-07-2011, 03:03 PM
As your link admits:

Note there are various definitions of Europe and in particular there is significant dispute about the eastern and south-eastern boundaries, specifically about how to treat the countries of the former Soviet Union and break-away nations of the Russian Federation. This list is based on a wide definition that includes much of the interface between Europe and South-West Asia.

You will perhaps admit that none of these in more recent times involved any region-wide conflict (post-Kosovo, during Clinton's term of office), but was limited to rebellions of dissident factions at far more localized levels.

"Unrest" and "insurgencies" are not European-wide wars, and many of them listed aren't in Europe, per se.

10-07-2011, 03:24 PM
You remind me of one of my favorite Three Stooges skits:

LWW: "So what do you think of those modern Euro armed conflicts?"

SOFA: "What wars?"

LWW: "The 23 armed conflicts in the last 22 years."

SOFA: "Ohhhh ... those armed conflicts."

10-07-2011, 05:28 PM
Except for Kosovo and Chechnya, these are low-intensity conflicts, and not wars in Europe.

Did you count the IRA terror campaign against GB as 'a war'?

It is a measure of how much the list you provide does not list 'wars' that almost all of them are unrecognizable as wars that were in the news, and half or more are unrecognizable, period.

If you wanted to ask how soon low intensity conflicts would break out in Europe, that is a different question. I presumed you meant war between the significant nations in Europe, not localized ethnic conflicts.

If you count the street demonstrations in London, as your bar to call things war seems very low, the answer is that they've already begun.

10-07-2011, 06:15 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The Western Roman Empire fell in 492 AD.....</div></div>Rome fell koz of fiscal policy, ie krappynomix -- mainly Rome's tax policy.
Roman produktion fell, koz avoiding tax became the main thing for the wealthy.
Rome's tax policy woz of course aimed at reducing debt -- an example of pure krappynomix.

10-07-2011, 07:25 PM
Gosh, I am more concerned about our future here in America. Violence is coming to our streets. Between the gangs of hoodlums and the leftists, finding safety for the average citizen will be hard to find following economic collapse. And this is coming on fact, perhaps within 4 or 5 years.

10-07-2011, 08:18 PM
I think a depression in theusofa will be a very different thing kompared to the 30's.
In the 30's u kood grow your own food and shoot a rabbit.
In the great depression of 2014 u will shoot and eat your neighbour.
The good thing iz praps that theusofa will get lots of Gothic buildings once things improov.