Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question

[Qtec]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><span style='font-size: 14pt'>Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive And Method</span>

WASHINGTON -- <span style='font-size: 14pt'>One national security analyst called it "amateur hour"</span> and compared it to the work of the <span style='font-size: 14pt'>"Keystone Kops."</span> Another described it as a <span style='font-size: 14pt'>"fusion-cuisine salad bar of U.S. security anxieties."</span> A third said it seemed <span style='font-size: 14pt'>"more Johnny English than Jason Bourne."</span>

The failed plot to assassinate a Saudi diplomat in Washington, D.C., allegedly cooked up by an Iranian-American with ties to an elite Iranian paramilitary organization and revealed Tuesday with great fanfare by the Obama administration, endured a harsh dose of skepticism from experts on Iran and intelligence operations on Wednesday.

"We spent the day here trying to figure this one out, and it just doesn't make any sense, " said Ken Gude, the managing director for National Security at the Center for American Progress.

"It doesn't mean it isn't true," he added. "Strange things do happen."

The plot, as laid out in a complaint filed by the Department of Justice, alleges that Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old Iranian-American from Corpus Christi, had hatched a plan to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. at his favorite restaurant in Washington. To do this, Arbabsiar, who worked as a used-car salesman and allegedly claimed to be in contact with a cousin who was "a 'big general' in the Iranian military," met with a Mexican cartel leader, the complaint says.

The Mexican hit man turned out to be working as an informant for the Drug Enforcement Administration, which soon turned the case over to the FBI. Arbabsiar also allegedly arranged for two wire transfers from Iranian agents of the Quds Force, the government's foreign military operations wing, worth a total of $100,000. A member of the Quds Force was also indicted in the plot.

In a press conference announcing the arrests, Attorney General Eric Holder described the ties to "elements" of the Iranian regime as a virtual certainty.

"The United States is committed to holding Iran responsible for its actions," he said.

Shortly afterward, the Treasury Department announced new sanctions against the government of Iran and its Quds Force, and ramped up diplomatic pressure on the regime.

But numerous experts on the Iranian regime and its military ambitions told The Huffington Post that the plan didn't seem to fit with the known agenda of the Iranian regime, while others said it simply lacked the complexity and sophistication that an assassination attempt by Iran's top intelligence force would be expected to have.

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>"The amateurish nature of this plot is shocking, and its audacity is shocking," said Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American who spent several years in the State Department during the Obama administration. "I thought that given the pattern of behavior of the Quds Force that if this is indeed true this would be a far more sophisticated operation than using a dilettante used car salesman as a go-between with a Mexican cartel."</span>

"Second, the audacity to escalate tensions with Saudi Arabia in such a brazen way, <u>and then to try to get the United States involved in the middle of regional issues, is nothing you would assume Iran would do,</u>" he added.

Like many of the people who raised questions about the story, Nasr emphasized that without a closer look at the evidence in the case, it would be impossible to rule anything out</div></div>

Sounds like <u>another</u> load of crap to me.

Q.... link (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html)

[LWW]

I think it's odd that it was released on the day Holder was subpoenaed.

Kind of like when the FBI decided to raid the Looneybomber compound prematurely on the day Ron Brown died ... or Clinton bombing an aspirin factory the day the impeachment vote was scheduled.

Yes, it does smack of a wag the dog story.

[Soflasnapper]

I agree that your theory here is plausible, and still complain about your examples of what you think are similar events. The first example is debatable, probably wrong, and the second, absolutely false.

First by way of agreement, notice this publicity release is for something discovered some months back, maybe May. So it had been kept secret so far; why the release now, supposedly?

Beyond that, the theory of this alleged plot is beyond stupid. The Iranians are subtle at what they do, patient, and they have many surrogates for their actions that do not include Mexican drug gangs. Combining both a Saudi ambassador and some Israeli as a target does nothing for Iran, exactly, and rather provides the beginning of a casus belli to ratchet up further tensions on Iran.

But your two examples are probably in one case, and certainly in another, wrong.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">FBI at Odds Over Report on Unabomber Suspect Raid
April 06, 1996| From Times Staff and Wire Services

NEW YORK — FBI officials disagreed Friday over whether the agency was forced to proceed prematurely with a raid on the Unabomber suspect's cabin because CBS-TV reported that the search was imminent.

The CBS report, aired shortly after noon PST Wednesday, said the FBI was preparing to search the mountain cabin of "the best suspect" in the 18-year Unabomber investigation.
</div></div> Link to LA Times report (http://articles.latimes.com/1996-04-06/news/mn-55523_1_fbi-officials)

In the second and wholly false example, I'm guessing you forgot your talking points. In case you need to jog your memory, here's a timeline (http://www.udel.edu/POSCISR/jpika/timeline.html) of the major events in the Clinton/Lewinsky imbroglio.

On August 20th, the day of the bombing, any impeachment votes by the House were months in the future. What actually happened that day was that Monica Lewinsky went for her second round of testimony to the grand jury. There was nothing to see OR HEAR, except a car motorcade entering the basement of the court building, which was indeed still shown that day despite the bombing. As grand jury testimony is provided the maximum secrecy protection under law, all that the alleged bombing of a aspirin factory distracted from was a brief glimpse of Lewinsky through a tinted automobile window as the motorcade made its way into the basement garage, which still was shown live on most of the media, complete with impeachment talk coverage as well.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Aug. 20, 1998: Monica Lewinsky testifies before the grand jury for a second time.

September 9, 1998: Independent Counsel Ken Starr submits his report and 18 boxes of supporting documents to the House of Representatives.

September 11, 1998: The House of Representative votes to receive the Starr report. The House Judiciary Committee takes possession of the 18 boxes of materials and promptly releases the first 445 pages to the public.

September 18, 1998: Over Democrats' objections, the House Judiciary Committee agrees to release President Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony and more than 3,000 pages of supporting material from the Starr report, including sexually explicit testimony from Monica Lewinsky.

September 21, 1998: The Judiciary Committee releases and many television networks immediately broadcast more than four hours of President Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony. Along with the videotape, the Judiciary Committee also releases the appendix to the Starr's report which includes 3,183 pages of testimony and other evidence, including a photograph of Lewinsky's semen-stained dress.

September 24, 1998: The House Judiciary Committee announces the committee will consider a resolution to begin an impeachment inquiry against President Clinton in an open session on October 5 or October 6.

October 2, 1998: The House Judiciary Committee releases another 4,610 pages of supporting material from Ken Starr's investigation, including transcripts of grand jury testimony and transcripts of the Linda Tripp-Monica Lewinsky tapes.

October 5, 1998: On a 21-16 vote, the House Judiciary Committee recommends a full impeachment inquiry.

October 8, 1998: The House of Representatives authorizes a wide-ranging impeachment inquiry of President Clinton on a 258-176 vote. Thirty-one Democrats join Republicans in supporting the investigation. </div></div>

Relatively famously, Gingrich had the actual impeachment vote itself after the election in early November, in the then-lame duck House.

[cushioncrawler]

The difference tween Iran and theusofa iz that the majority of the pipple in Iran know that they are being skrewed.

I wooden be surprized to learn that the majority of the pipple in Iran dislike theusofa less than do the majority of the pipple in Saudi Arabia.
mac.

[LWW]

What point, if any, are you trying to make here?

[Qtec]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">First by way of agreement, notice this publicity release is for something discovered some months back, maybe May. So it had been kept secret so far; why the release now, supposedly? </div></div>


Usually its for diversion or political gain. José Padilla?


<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">José Padilla (born October 18, 1970), also known as Abdullah al-Muhajir or Muhajir Abdullah, is a United States citizen convicted of aiding terrorists.

Padilla was arrested in Chicago on May 8, 2002 on suspicion of plotting a radiological bomb ("dirty bomb") attack. He was detained as a material witness until June 9, 2002, when President George W. Bush designated him an enemy combatant and, arguing that he was thereby not entitled to trial in civilian courts, had him transferred to a military prison. Padilla was held for three and a half years as an "enemy combatant" until, after pressure from civil liberties groups, the charge was dropped and his case was moved to a civilian court.

On January 3, 2006, Padilla was transferred to a Miami, Florida, jail to face criminal conspiracy charges. On August 16, 2007, a federal jury found him guilty of conspiring to kill people in an overseas jihad and to fund and support overseas terrorism. <span style='font-size: 14pt'>Government officials had claimed Padilla was suspected of planning to build and explode a "dirty bomb" in the United States, but he was <u>never charged with this crime, nor convicted on such a charge.</u></span> </div></div>

It was on TV. They acted like they had just saved America from a massive attack!

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Updated: Sept. 19, 2011

On June 10, 2002, Attorney General John Ashcroft interrupted a visit to Moscow to announce a sensational arrest: an American citizen named Jose Padilla had been detained at O'Hare Airport and charged with taking part in an Al Qaeda plot to detonate a radioactive "dirty bomb" within the United States.

Mr. Padilla spent more than three years in solitary isolation in a military brig as an officially designated enemy combatant. Then in November 2005, as a court challenge to his status was pending, the Bush administration suddenly announced that criminal charges had been filed against him in federal court in Miami. The new indictment made no mention of the dirty bomb or most of the other original charges.

Instead, Mr. Padilla, a former Chicago gang member who converted to Islam, was charged with being part of a "North American support cell" that worked to support violent jihad campaigns in Afghanistan and elsewhere overseas from 1993 to 2001. His lawyers sought to have the charges dismissed on the grounds that the psychological damage he suffered during his confinement from abuse and extreme isolation had left him incompetent to stand trial. The judge in the case denied the motion, without ruling on the merits of the defense accusations of abuse.

On Aug. 16, 2007, Mr. Padilla and two co-defendants, Adham Amin Hassoun and Kifah Wael Jayyousi, were convicted of conspiracy to murder, kidnap and maim people in a foreign country, which carries a penalty of life in prison. All three were also convicted of conspiracy to provide material support for terrorists, and providing material support for terrorists. Those two counts carry potential 15-year sentences each.

Mr. Padilla was sentenced to 17 years and four months in prison by a federal judge in Miami on Jan. 22, 2008, below the federal sentencing guidelines.

During sentencing, Judge Marcia G. Cooke said she understood the gravity of the crimes Mr. Padilla had committed. <span style='font-size: 17pt'>But, she added, there was no evidence linking him and his co-defendants to specific acts of terrorism.</span> She also gave Mr. Padilla credit for the <span style='font-size: 17pt'>three and a half years he was held in a naval brig in South Carolina after his arrest.</span><span style="color: #990000"> ie 3 yrs solitary confinement. Some would call that inhumane, maybe torture.</span>

More than three years later, a federal appeals court threw out the sentence, calling it too lenient. The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta ruled that Mr. Padilla’s case should return to a lower court for a new sentencing hearing. </div></div>

When Bush was in power, the threat alert was changing every time they needed a diversion, why should it be any different now?

Q

[Soflasnapper]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">What point, if any, are you trying to make here? </div></div>

3 points.

I agree there may be a diversionary aspect to this announcement's timing, relative to Holder's subpoena.

And your examples of supposedly the same thing happening before are mistaken.

The Unabomber raid was accelerated because CBS had released a news report that the raid was in prospect.

And your claim of an originally scheduled vote on impeachment on the 'aspirin factory bombing' is false, off by months.