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eg8r
11-27-2011, 07:52 PM
I am wondering if they will change the rules and vote Tebow into the Hall of Fame while still being an active QUARTERBACK!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

On a more serious note, this guy is going to be incredible if he ever learns to throw the ball. I love watching Elway eat crow after each Tebow win. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r

LWW
11-28-2011, 04:37 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I am wondering if they will change the rules and vote Tebow into the Hall of Fame while still being an active QUARTERBACK!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

On a more serious note, this guy is going to be incredible if he ever learns to throw the ball. I love watching Elway eat crow after each Tebow win. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r </div></div>

Tebow should be fine. What he needs is some protection.

The reason he is such a surprise to the public is the leftist media went on a jihad to destroy the image of him being an NFL caliber QB once his mother made the commercial explaining why she had the audacity to not abort him when she had the chance.

That and his open embracing of Christianity.

If he were a converted Muslim he would be the media's darling, and any mention that he didn't have the ability to throw the bomb would be deemed racist.

pooltchr
11-28-2011, 07:31 AM
Coach Fox admitted the same thing in an interview this weekend, saying they are working with him in his comfort zone, while also working daily on his passing. He may never be a "franchise" QB, but I believe he has a good future in the NFL.
Steve

Soflasnapper
11-28-2011, 08:23 AM
LWW, you have become a parody of yourself, making this a right/left issue!

Bizarre and untrue.

Tebow was doubted as a pro caliber QB because he is not a good passer, and most casual and expert observers of pro football consider passing one of the more critical skills necessary for a pro QB. Which happens to be absolutely true. Period.

As for the media now, they are loving the story of this guy, and how he's gutting out wins with mainly miserable passing stats, based on his legs and ridiculously powerful body (fullback or linebacker body) and sheer will to win. That's the story now that he's accomplishing these things.

In the interim, before he got starts to show what he could do, the story was the speculation that he probably couldn't succeed as a QB in the league because of his admitted poor passing mechanics. Who said he had bad mechanics? Every expert appraiser of football, and as pro football is a big money sport, no such expert would make their assessment based on public relations issues such as his professed Christianity.

sack316
11-28-2011, 08:23 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I am wondering if they will change the rules and vote Tebow into the Hall of Fame while still being an active QUARTERBACK!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

On a more serious note, this guy is going to be incredible if he ever learns to throw the ball. I love watching Elway eat crow after each Tebow win. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r </div></div>

I'm loving watching them win with Tebow behind center! And I don't even like Denver... but I'm rooting for him!

Hoping all the "experts" eat crow. I agree with them that his mechanics are not that of a typical NFL QB, and he'll probably never be a Brady or Manning throwing the ball. But there are intangibles I've always said he has that will make him successful! He's a winner, a leader, and a VERY hard worker. You simply can't measure those things and the impact they have.

Compare him to say, a Leinart who did have all the "necessary" skills and mechanics to be a "great" NFL QB. Or a Ryan Leaf. Neither of them had that "it" or mature mindset to handle the job. What Tebow lacks in mechanics, he more than makes up for with heart, mind, and maturity. And he's winning with not much around him, either.

I haven't watched too much NFL this season, but I sure have enjoyed seeing Tebow and Newton prove the experts wrong!

Sack

eg8r
11-28-2011, 09:25 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> And he's winning with not much around him, either.
</div></div>And to be completely fair, the Denver defense has really stepped up to do their part. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I watched the games yesterday with a buddy of mine (a Bengals fan) and all throughout the Bengals game he was yelling at the TV for the Bengals playing so darn predictable. They were getting squashed at the goal line and playing quite predictable. On the contrary, Tebow is the epitome of predictable and he just continues to move the ball when it matters. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I also love that Tebow never shoots himself in the foot, he never "loses" the game with dumb plays. His protege at UF had 3 picks this weekend and you rarely will ever see Tebow do that.

eg8r

eg8r
11-28-2011, 09:26 AM
Man, if he ever gets any sort of accuracy throwing the ball he will be tough to beat.

eg8r

sack316
11-28-2011, 09:42 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> And he's winning with not much around him, either.
</div></div>And to be completely fair, the Denver defense has really stepped up to do their part. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I watched the games yesterday with a buddy of mine (a Bengals fan) and all throughout the Bengals game he was yelling at the TV for the Bengals playing so darn predictable. They were getting squashed at the goal line and playing quite predictable. On the contrary, Tebow is the epitome of predictable and he just continues to move the ball when it matters. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I also love that Tebow never shoots himself in the foot, he never "loses" the game with dumb plays. His protege at UF had 3 picks this weekend and you rarely will ever see Tebow do that.

eg8r </div></div>

Agreed, the D has been doing their job... but also note the D is much improved since Tebow took over too! Could be because they believe in him and step it up, could be because he protects the ball and gives them time to rest as well... or both!

And it's tough to defend when the Denver offense gets moving. McGahee starts busting the middle, you adjust to stop and suddenly Tebow is running off the edge. Safeties start to cheat in a little to sell out on the run, and suddenly Tebow is hitting a receiver downfield.

Also, of course, A LOT of credit goes to Offensive Line.

But still, the undeniable stat is 5-1 with Tebow, 1-4 before... with 2 of his wins against division opponents they lost to once earlier AND winning them on the road.

He probably won't win many individual awards in his career... but he'll win games. More importantly, he still will get better and better the more he learns!

Sack

Soflasnapper
11-28-2011, 10:52 AM
I don't know about Tebow's future success.

It could be that it's all working now because it's new. Pro defenses don't work against spread option offenses very much, as it is a college scheme little used at the pro level.

I think back to the Miami Dolphins' use of the wildcat. Worked great for a while, and then didn't.

I think back to D-Train Dontrelle Willis here at the Marlins. First time through the league he was unhittable, and had a gaudy w/l and ERA record, considering his weird delivery was new to everyone. Second half, once they figured it out, was far different, and although he hung on well enough to make rookie of the year iirc, he didn't finish at 30-0, as his early record suggested might be the case.

Fact is, Tebow as QB typically has a ton of 3 and outs, even now during his period of helping the team win. He does it late, with one or a couple of drives, after most drives were still-born in the original series of downs. That is not a winning formula over time.

eg8r
11-28-2011, 11:42 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">But still, the undeniable stat is 5-1 with Tebow, 1-4 before... with 2 of his wins against division opponents they lost to once earlier AND winning them on the road.
</div></div>This is definitely a stat that I believe is making Elway furious. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I think he agreed to let Tebow play so that he could show the fans that Tebow was not "all that" and hopefully he could get a high draft pick. Neither of those appear to be happening though. Tebow's winning ways have his fans (me included) ignoring the fact that his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired and with every win they get further and further away from a shot at a high draft pick.

eg8r

sack316
11-28-2011, 12:19 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I don't know about Tebow's future success.

It could be that it's all working now because it's new. Pro defenses don't work against spread option offenses very much, as it is a college scheme little used at the pro level.

I think back to the Miami Dolphins' use of the wildcat. Worked great for a while, and then didn't.

I think back to D-Train Dontrelle Willis here at the Marlins. First time through the league he was unhittable, and had a gaudy w/l and ERA record, considering his weird delivery was new to everyone. Second half, once they figured it out, was far different, and although he hung on well enough to make rookie of the year iirc, he didn't finish at 30-0, as his early record suggested might be the case.

Fact is, Tebow as QB typically has a ton of 3 and outs, even now during his period of helping the team win. He does it late, with one or a couple of drives, after most drives were still-born in the original series of downs. That is not a winning formula over time. </div></div>

All very true Sofla. But other than the intangibles mentioned before, I think the difference with Tebow is he is willing to learn, adapt, and change.

To bring up the comparison again, someone like Ryan Leaf who came in, thought just being a top pick and being "Ryan Leaf" was enough to carry through. Someone like him thought he had reached his destination, rather than thinking that the journey was only beginning.

Tebow didn't come in thinking "this is how I do things, it always worked before, and I'm going to stubbornly stick with it". He has learned, you can see some improvement in his throwing motion, footwork, and quickness of delivery. Granted mechanically he still leaves a lot to be desired, and the scheme at present time would be considered "gimmick" and will be figured out, I think his potential and ability to learn and develop gives him a high chance of long term success. As long as his attitude and willingness to be coached doesn't change, anyway. JMHO

Sack

Soflasnapper
11-28-2011, 02:10 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">But still, the undeniable stat is 5-1 with Tebow, 1-4 before... with 2 of his wins against division opponents they lost to once earlier AND winning them on the road.
</div></div>This is definitely a stat that I believe is making Elway furious. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif I think he agreed to let Tebow play so that he could show the fans that Tebow was not "all that" and hopefully he could get a high draft pick. Neither of those appear to be happening though. Tebow's winning ways have his fans (me included) ignoring the fact that his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired and with every win they get further and further away from a shot at a high draft pick.

eg8r </div></div>

Dollars to doughnuts they try to obtain an elite QB for next year, in the draft, or by trade, regardless of how Tim performs the rest of this season.

Soflasnapper
11-28-2011, 02:16 PM
I like Tebow, and hope he succeeds at becoming an elite QB along with the wins he can deliver with sheer willpower and drive.

But so many 'can't miss' prospects have indeed missed, and he is rather in the 'can miss' or 'will miss' category at this point.

I remain cautiously optimistic, heavy emphasis on the cautiously. But honestly, nothing would delight me more. I have no emotional investment in predictions that he will fail, as some might. In fact, as little as I know about the techniques of passing, I was quite surprised to hear the general doubting that he would be a high draft pick, let alone fail to be at least a serviceable pro. All I knew was his record here at Florida, and all the intangibles you mention, so I figured he would do well if given a chance.

sack316
11-28-2011, 03:03 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I like Tebow, and hope he succeeds at becoming an elite QB along with the wins he can deliver with sheer willpower and drive.

But so many 'can't miss' prospects have indeed missed, and he is rather in the 'can miss' or 'will miss' category at this point.

I remain cautiously optimistic, heavy emphasis on the cautiously. But honestly, nothing would delight me more. I have no emotional investment in predictions that he will fail, as some might. In fact, as little as I know about the techniques of passing, I was quite surprised to hear the general doubting that he would be a high draft pick, let alone fail to be at least a serviceable pro. All I knew was his record here at Florida, and all the intangibles you mention, so I figured he would do well <u>if given a chance.</u> </div></div>

And I'm glad to see him given a chance. At least now the talk can actually have to do with his gametime performances on the field, rather than speculation based on tape and practices. He has his opportunity, and thus far is getting the job done, even if not nearly as aesthetically pleasing as an Aaron Rodgers performance.

Success or failure is on his shoulders now, which I am glad to see.

Sack

eg8r
11-28-2011, 04:02 PM
I agree, which is why I think Tebow's performance is not what Elway was wanting. He wanted to give the fans what they wanted and prove to them Tebow is not an NFL QB. At that point he would have a team in last place and have the best chance at Luck or some other high pick QB. Now that Tebow is finding ways to win (on the back of his defense) that prospect of landing Luck is dwindling. We all know they are going to go after another QB but Tebow is just making their choices a little less available.

eg8r

eg8r
11-28-2011, 04:06 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Success or failure is on his shoulders now, which I am glad to see.
</div></div>I wonder what the ratings for the game were yesterday. Were they higher, lower, or the same for any normal NFL televised game. If not for Tebow I would have skipped the game. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif One thing is for sure, when he is passing well he is very fun to watch.

eg8r

pooltchr
11-28-2011, 04:10 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
In the interim, before he got starts to show what he could do, the story was the speculation that he probably couldn't succeed as a QB in the league because of his admitted poor passing mechanics. Who said he had bad mechanics? Every expert appraiser of football, and as pro football is a big money sport, no such expert would make their assessment based on public relations issues such as his professed Christianity.
</div></div>

Most experts would tell you that Keith McRedy doesn't have text book pool mechanics...but somehow that never kept him from winning.
Just sayin'

Steve

Soflasnapper
11-28-2011, 05:47 PM
Correct about Keith, of course, but then he doesn't need the mechanics to throw a frozen rope of a pass 40 yards and hit someone in the numbers, or loft a touch pass to the corner of the end zone where no one but the receiver has a chance at catching it.

Although he may need to draw the rock 16 feet at times, coming back 3 rails for position. (I pick Keith over Tim in pool, btw!)

My point is that the physical side of pool is minor, and many non-standard strokes can get the job done. I do not know that's true at the QB position. There, even the strong-armed good technique guys also need pin-point accuracy on their short and long throws, and lacking THAT usually gets them sat down, despite good technique and a cannon arm.

LWW
11-29-2011, 07:07 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">LWW, you have become a parody of yourself, making this a right/left issue!

Bizarre and untrue.

Tebow was doubted as a pro caliber QB because he is not a good passer, and most casual and expert observers of pro football consider passing one of the more critical skills necessary for a pro QB. Which happens to be absolutely true. Period.

As for the media now, they are loving the story of this guy, and how he's gutting out wins with mainly miserable passing stats, based on his legs and ridiculously powerful body (fullback or linebacker body) and sheer will to win. That's the story now that he's accomplishing these things.

In the interim, before he got starts to show what he could do, the story was the speculation that he probably couldn't succeed as a QB in the league because of his admitted poor passing mechanics. Who said he had bad mechanics? Every expert appraiser of football, and as pro football is a big money sport, no such expert would make their assessment based on public relations issues such as his professed Christianity.
</div></div>

Are you honestly denying the apoplectic fit that many in the left went into over his SB commercial ... and how his mother had the audacity not to abort him?

Perhaps you should search this very forum for the queen's opinion?

Soflasnapper
11-29-2011, 09:45 PM
Not at all; I admit that occurred.

However, that was not any kind of factor in the opinions of pro QB scouts, NFL front office general or personnel managers, or Elway, all of whom were prominent doubters on the record, ON THE MERITS (actually, as all knowledgeable admit, the DEMERITS) of his QB skills, specifically with regard to, you know, that whole THROWING PART.

And he's not surprising by showing everybody his hitherto hidden throwing abilities-- he's doing it on intangibles, leadership, running his big body, and frankly, on the strength of their defense holding opponents down to where his anemic offensive skills can still outscore the meager points they're allowing.

eg8r
11-30-2011, 08:45 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">he's doing it on intangibles, leadership, running his big body, and frankly, on the strength of their defense holding opponents down to where his anemic offensive skills can still outscore the meager points they're allowing.
</div></div>I read something last night that you might find interesting. Sure, I agree you can make statistics say whatever you want but this is surprising to me. <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html" target="_blank">
Tebow's success due to production and protection, not magic</a>

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
There's no doubt that Tebow's passing accuracy has been spotty at times. At the end of the day, though, he has consistently outplayed the other team's quarterbacks. The problem is that most analysts are limited in their ability to analyze and compare quarterbacks with anything more concrete than the old eye test. Or they look at stats that simply do not matter at the end of the day, such as passing yards, and can't figure out how Tebow is winning games.

Smarter analysts might know to look at critical measures of passing success, such as yards per attempt or passer rating -- indicators that traditionally have a very high correlation to victory. But even those indicators fail to tell the whole story of Tim Tebow.

Enter Cold, Hard Football Facts.com's Real Quarterback Rating, which we introduced over the summer and which has quickly proven itself the most important indicator in football outside of final score.

CHFF Real Quarterback Rating measures all aspects of quarterback play, passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, etc., and spits it out in a number substantially similar to passer rating and that uses the same formula as passer rating. (Passer rating, while extraordinarily useful in its own right, measures only passing and nothing else -- even if many fans and analysts erroneously refer to it as "quarterback rating.")

Our introduction of Real QB Rating this year has proven fortuitous. After all, it provides a perfect way to compare Tebow to opposing passers. (Get a full explanation of Real Quarterback Rating in the footnotes below.)

Here's how Tebow stacks up against each opposing quarterback this year in traditional passer rating and in Real Quarterback Rating.

Week 7 -- Denver 18, Miami 15
Matt Moore: 92.6 passer rating; 69.6 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 91.7 passer rating; 80.5 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+10.9)

Week 8 -- Detroit 45, Denver 10
Matt Stafford-Shaun Hill: 126.0 passer rating; 118.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 56.8 passer rating; 48.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Stafford (+70.0)

Week 9 -- Denver 38, Oakland 24
Carson Palmer: 79.7 passer rating; 69.4 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 98.1 passer rating; 108.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+38.8)

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+54.8)

Week 11 -- Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 13
Mark Sanchez: 67.9 passer rating; 62.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 61.3 passer rating; 87.1 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+24.9)

Week 12 -- Denver 16, San Diego 13
Philip Rivers: 77.1 passer rating, 68.8 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 95.4 pass rating, 94.4 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+25.6)
...

There are two underlying reasons why Tebow is so effective, two reasons that explain his impressive Real Quarterback Rating week after week.

1. He gets the ball in the end zone more often than any QB in football today
2. He protects the football better than any QB in football today

The Broncos clearly have not scored a lot of points with Tebow at quarterback. In fact, Denver has averaged just 19.3 points per game in Tebow's six starts and has scored 18 points or fewer in five of those games. And clearly, the defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, either purely as coincidence or as a by-product of the fact that Tebow has helped the team improve in all areas by protecting the football.

But Tebow himself has been deadly with the ball in his hands. He produces touchdowns at an amazing clip, better than any quarterback in football in his brief career. Here's a comparison of Tebow vs. some of the more prolific quarterbacks in recent history.

Career percentage of touches that result in a TD:
Tim Tebow -- 6.0 percent
Aaron Rodgers -- 5.7 percent
Peyton Manning -- 5.5 percent
Tom Brady -- 5.1 percent
Drew Brees -- 4.7 percent
John Elway -- 3.9 percent

Wow. Tebow may not pass the ball effectively. But he's produced an incredible 22 touchdowns (13 passing, nine rushing) in just 368 touches (225 pass attempts, 121 rush attempts, 22 sacks). Nobody in football gets the ball in the end zone more often.

More importantly, Tebow takes incredibly good care of the football. We track something at Cold, Hard Football Facts called the "interception ladder." It shows us that every interception decreases your chances of winning by about 20 percentage points. In other words, interceptions are destructive plays that severely limit a team's ability to win games.

But the Broncos are winning not just because Tebow protects the football, but because he protects it better than any QB in the game today. Here's how he stacks up against some of the more prolific QBs in the game today.

Career interception percentage:
Tim Tebow -- 1.78 percent
Aaron Rodgers -- 1.83 percent
Tom Brady -- 2.2 percent
Drew Brees -- 2.71 percent
Peyton Manning -- 2.75 percent
John Elway -- 3.1 percent

Add in that Tebow has lost just one fumble in his career (with four INT) and his turnover rate is an incredibly miniscule 1.4 percent.

Tebow has suffered just two turnovers all year, one interception and one fumble. Both of those turnovers came in the Detroit game, his lone loss this year. He has a clean slate, zero turnovers, in Denver's five victories this year.

We're not trying to extrapolate too much out on Tebow's career. Clearly, he's played only a handful of games. The other passers on those lists played over the long haul. A lot can change between here and the end of his career -- whenever and wherever that may come.

But for right here, and right now, Denver is winning because Tebow is consistently the best and most productive quarterback on the field.
</div></div>While the numbers seem gaudy when looked at this way, I ended up bolding the section that I thought was most important. He career is very young and all these numbers will change as time moves on. Hopefully they stay close to where they are but know one knows.

eg8r

sack316
11-30-2011, 09:18 AM
A few other things to add here:

Terry Bradshaw... 4 rings and considered a "great". 52% career completion percentage and basically a 1:1 TD to interception ratio.

Jim Plunkett... 2 rings 52% career completion percentage. 164 TDs, 198 interceptions!

Joe Namath... ugh his numbers are awful! And he's in the hall of fame! 65.5 career QB rating, 'nuff said.

Also add in Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson to this list as serviceable "game managers" who didn't light up the scoreboard, but brought home rings.

Good game management and solid D (and Tebow protects the ball better than the 3 legends on this list, which helps the D tremendously) can lead to great things!

NFL measures a lot of things by rings... you obviously don't have to be a Brady, Manning, or Rodgers to get that done (although it helps!).

Cam Newton is having a phenomenal and exciting rookie year and looks like a bright future for Carolina. But I'm sure he (and the Panthers) would prefer the W-L record over the record setting individual statistics.

Sack

Soflasnapper
11-30-2011, 07:21 PM
Those are interesting stats, but they must be tempered as the source and you admit, by the extremely short sample size of Tebow's career, plus the fact that they've been on a winning streak.

Many QBs are on teams with winning streaks, only to later go on losing streaks. Many this year, in fact.

Obviously, by the fact of winning when on the streak, there were fewer interceptions, better TD rates, etc. Likewise, these same QBs and teams had more interceptions and worse TD rates when they had losing streaks.

By default, Tebow is having the best season in his career. How would his startling numbers in this his best year compare to the others mentioned, during THEIR best years? I believe they'd blow his numbers this year away, and that is somewhat proven by the fact they are so close as a CAREER number (including all their bad games, playing hurt, having losing streaks, and worst seasons of their careers).

Consider why these two opposite things can be true at the same time:

1. He gets the ball in the end zone more often than any QB in football today

The Broncos clearly have not scored a lot of points with Tebow at quarterback. In fact, Denver has averaged just 19.3 points per game in Tebow's six starts and has scored 18 points or fewer in five of those games. And clearly, the defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, either purely as coincidence or as a by-product of the fact that Tebow has helped the team improve in all areas by protecting the football.

If he scores more often than anyone else, as a percentage of his touches, why is Denver scoring like the Dolphins do (around 20 a game), and why isn't he leading in the TD race for this season?

BECAUSE HE DOESN'T GET THAT MANY TOUCHES. Because he goes 3 and out a lot, reducing his reps. Those other guys don't.

eg8r
11-30-2011, 08:45 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Many QBs are on teams with winning streaks, only to later go on losing streaks. Many this year, in fact.
</div></div>It would be interesting as to how that algorithm pans out with those other QBs. Does it still accurately predict whether they won or not?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Obviously, by the fact of winning when on the streak, there were fewer interceptions, better TD rates, etc. Likewise, these same QBs and teams had more interceptions and worse TD rates when they had losing streaks.
</div></div>You are trying to reverse engineer the happenings of the game based on the outcome. This algorithm shows that to not be a viable indicator due to the fact that it can be applied to other quarterbacks that have won more games but have a worse TD/interception ratio. Common knowledge will tell you the better that ratio the better opportunity to win but it is not a sole indicator.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I believe they'd blow his numbers this year away, and that is somewhat proven by the fact they are so close as a CAREER number (including all their bad games, playing hurt, having losing streaks, and worst seasons of their careers).
</div></div>That is the whole point. You think this is his best year ever but the sample is much too small to make the assumption. You are trying to guess while the algorithm is showing real numbers. Again, the authors are not trying to extrapolate how his career will end up, just how he has performed and as of right now, you call his offense anemic yet the stats prove they are a complete 180.

For now these stats don't mean much because we are comparing apples and oranges when comparing careers. When you compare game to game the algorithm is holding strong and accurately predicting the outcome. As Tebow outplays his counterpart the Broncos win. When he doesn't they lose. As sack pointed out, there are plenty of HOF QBs whose career numbers were not much better than Tebows. The only difference is that they have a few rings.

eg8r

LWW
12-01-2011, 05:21 AM
No battle plan survives intact after first contact with the enemy.

Soflasnapper
12-01-2011, 11:43 AM
Well, arguing sports is nearly completely subjective, which is an interesting situation as everybody can be right, sort of (matter of opinion).

A couple of things, though.

Jim Plunkett is NOT in the HOF, despite the rings. Namath probably does not deserve to be there, other than the historic nature of his 'guaranteed' win making the AFL a credible enough league to merge with the NFL, being a glamor guy with a huge contract also giving credibility to the upstart league, etc. In on a technicality, not the sum total of his stats. Bradshaw, how could you keep out a QB with 4 rings, whatever his stats?

If Tebow gets 4 rings, I'd vote him into the HOF as well.

But you haven't answered this question: if he's so efficient at TDs per touch, why isn't he leading the league in TDs? Why isn't Denver a scoring leader, instead of under 20 points a game with TT at the helm? Sure, I know he didn't start all the games, and so would be behind the leader board for TDs based on fewer games. But how about FOR the games he played? Is he among the leaders in TDs there? Not at all, not even close.

So this 'gets the ball in the end zone more than anyone else' is lying with true statistics, more or less. You think the Denver coaching squad knows he's so efficient, but refuses to put the ball in his hands more, so as to account for his very low amount of TDs? Impossible, and TT gets to touch the ball on every offensive play except special team downs.

The problem is TT turns the ball over. Not with fumbles or interceptions, but with INEPT OFFENSIVE PLAY that fails to move the chains for extra series of downs, for more touches for him.

Yes, third down conversion efficiency is a team stat, but it is also his stat. My bet is that stat is a very bad one indeed.

eg8r
12-01-2011, 01:03 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">if he's so efficient at TDs per touch, why isn't he leading the league in TDs?</div></div>You answered it yourself, he goes 3 and out too often.

eg8r

sack316
12-01-2011, 02:21 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well, arguing sports is nearly completely subjective, which is an interesting situation as everybody can be right, sort of (matter of opinion).

A couple of things, though.

Jim Plunkett is NOT in the HOF, despite the rings. Namath probably does not deserve to be there, other than the historic nature of his 'guaranteed' win making the AFL a credible enough league to merge with the NFL, being a glamor guy with a huge contract also giving credibility to the upstart league, etc. In on a technicality, not the sum total of his stats. Bradshaw, how could you keep out a QB with 4 rings, whatever his stats?

If Tebow gets 4 rings, I'd vote him into the HOF as well. </div></div>

Actually that part was from me, not eg8r. But yes, the point was that one does not have to be great statistically to bring home a ring (which is the point of the competition).

I do especially like your point about these discussions being subjective, because they certainly are... and everyone thus far has been correct in their own way.

I do think it is a hell of an accomplishment for him to go from 3rd string and discussion of possibly trade/release talks to being starter and in some people's Pro Bowl discussions (although I disagree with him as a pro bowler to this point). Pretty good rise in a short time. He may well fall back down again, but so far so good I'd say.

Sack

eg8r
12-01-2011, 02:29 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I do think it is a hell of an accomplishment for him to go from 3rd string and discussion of possibly trade/release talks to being starter and in some people's Pro Bowl discussions (although I disagree with him as a pro bowler to this point).</div></div>OK, I am trying hard to not be a Tebow cheerleader because I agree that he has such a long way to go before being a great NFL QB, but why wouldn't you think he has earned his place in discussion for the Pro Bowl? He has taken a 1-4 team and completely turned them around? Sure the defense has been instrumental but the QB always gets the credit. Is it because there are only a limited number of spots at the QB position and you like other candidates instead for that spot?

eg8r

sack316
12-01-2011, 03:22 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I do think it is a hell of an accomplishment for him to go from 3rd string and discussion of possibly trade/release talks to being starter and in some people's Pro Bowl discussions (although I disagree with him as a pro bowler to this point).</div></div>OK, I am trying hard to not be a Tebow cheerleader because I agree that he has such a long way to go before being a great NFL QB, but why wouldn't you think he has earned his place in discussion for the Pro Bowl? He has taken a 1-4 team and completely turned them around? Sure the defense has been instrumental but the QB always gets the credit. Is it because there are only a limited number of spots at the QB position and you like other candidates instead for that spot?

eg8r </div></div>

Yes, much more the latter there Ed. That tends to be much more statistical... and I'd guess Brady, Big Ben, and Rivers as the 3 from the AFC. All in all, I'd say overall that Dalton is more deserved to go than Tebow thus far. Not that Tebow isn't worthy of acclaim and recognition, just that I don't see him as a top 3 QB of the conference right now. There is still time, though.

Now if we're talking ratings, buzz, and interest for the usual lackluster NFL all-star game... then give the man his spot on the roster! Because he is certainly top 3 in that category, and may even get a nod for that!

Also, you left out one option for why I may not include him on my pro bowl list... if he's in the Super Bowl he wouldn't be in the Pro Bowl /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

Sack

eg8r
12-01-2011, 05:27 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yes, much more the latter there Ed. That tends to be much more statistical... and I'd guess Brady, Big Ben, and Rivers as the 3 from the AFC. All in all, I'd say overall that Dalton is more deserved to go than Tebow thus far. Not that Tebow isn't worthy of acclaim and recognition, just that I don't see him as a top 3 QB of the conference right now. There is still time, though.
</div></div>My interpretation of the Pro Bowl is to pick the best from the current year. Rivers has not had a good year at all. I would pick Tebow over Rivers as far as performance this year. Now Dalton is definitely a worthy pick in his own right. He has is having a good year also.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">if he's in the Super Bowl he wouldn't be in the Pro Bowl </div></div>Even I am not that crazy. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r

Soflasnapper
12-01-2011, 05:40 PM
I do think it is a hell of an accomplishment for him to go from 3rd string and discussion of possibly trade/release talks to being starter and in some people's Pro Bowl discussions (although I disagree with him as a pro bowler to this point). Pretty good rise in a short time. He may well fall back down again, but so far so good I'd say.


I absolutely agree with all of that. He could almost be comeback player of the year, except nothing he's coming back from exactly (injury or super bad prior season not in evidence).

Just noting that playing well is something that's expected for pros, and when they do not do that, they sit or get waived/traded, unless there's no other option than to still play them. Making the all-pro roster, let alone the HOF, requires several steps better play than just playing well-- quite superior, elite play, as good or better than ANYONE ELSE PLAYING THE POSITION. As Drew Breese is on track to beat Marino's 5k+ yards for a season, TT is clearly not all that, and nobody sensible would put him in a Drew Breese or Tom Brady category right now (and it's hard to see that he ever could be elite in the sense those and another handful-- Aaron Rogers, Phillip Rivers, etc.-- are. They showed their talent very early on.)

He may yet get there, but for now, he reminds me of the Stones song 'Winning Ugly.'

One last point is that any QB whose career didn't originate back before all the changes designed to protect QBs does not have stats that are comparable to the old greats. I'm not saying they don't have BETTER stats-- they likely do have better stats. But with the emphasis on offense and scoring, the protections given both the QB and the receivers, and the influence of the west coast offense, the game is way easier for QBs now than before when they were smacked around like abused children legally, for staying healthy, having longevity, and having gaudy passing stats. Brett Favre is probably the last guy playing enough time in the older rules regime that his stats are reasonably comparable to the older QBs, and even he had a half-dozen or more years with the newer rules.

Soflasnapper
12-01-2011, 05:49 PM
Now if we're talking ratings, buzz, and interest for the usual lackluster NFL all-star game... then give the man his spot on the roster! Because he is certainly top 3 in that category, and may even get a nod for that!

I agree with that as well. Great story, compelling viewing, huge interest in this guy, and for good reasons.

I think back to Chad Pennington. The guy was surreal for accuracy, leading the league several times in completion percentage, and possibly owning the best career completion percentage. Crazy good at completing passes.

Problem for him: either no arm ever, or possibly because of injury, no arm in his later years (I didn't follow him early in his career to know). So, despite his greatness at completing passes, he couldn't throw the long ball and stretch the defenses to keep them more honest, which was considered so significant a flaw that many questioned whether he should be a starter. The Jets let him go for nothing, iirc.

So consider TT, who not only cannot throw long (with the requisite accuracy)-- he cannot throw SHORT with accuracy. You see the problem for him considering his position.

eg8r
12-01-2011, 09:43 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The Jets let him go for nothing, iirc.
</div></div>Yep and the Dolphins do what they do best...they pick him up and win just enough games to not get much in the lottery draft and they continue as a perennial middle of the road lack luster franchise. I loved living down there and going to see Marino play. Those were the days.

eg8r

sack316
12-03-2011, 09:46 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
One last point is that any QB whose career didn't originate back before all the changes designed to protect QBs does not have stats that are comparable to the old greats. I'm not saying they don't have BETTER stats-- they likely do have better stats. But with the emphasis on offense and scoring, the protections given both the QB and the receivers, and the influence of the west coast offense, the game is way easier for QBs now than before when they were smacked around like abused children legally, for staying healthy, having longevity, and having gaudy passing stats. Brett Favre is probably the last guy playing enough time in the older rules regime that his stats are reasonably comparable to the older QBs, and even he had a half-dozen or more years with the newer rules. </div></div>

Agreed 100% there! It's almost like there are 3 eras in football now... this era driven more by ratings, jersey sales, and ticket sales (ie gotta protect the big name QB's, as they don't 'sell' as well when on injured reserve).

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of malicious hits and bad intentions that happen on some plays... and I am glad the league has addressed the safety issue on such things. But seems to be they have gone <u>too far</u> the other way and have taken something away from the game. Some of these roughing penalties I've seen called have been outright sad!

I could go on forever bitching about that! But suffice to say, yes there is no way to fairly compare numbers these days versus that of old days when they actually played football. Guys like Butkus, LT, Jack Lambert etc would be banned from the league in today's rules! Only a matter of time before they give the red jersey from practice to the QB's in actual games!

Sack

Soflasnapper
12-03-2011, 09:51 AM
Too much agreement around here! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

sack316
12-03-2011, 09:54 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Too much agreement around here! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif </div></div>

lol yessir... not sure I'm comfortable with that. Quick, someone mention Obama or Bush or something!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Been a good discussion. Once upon a time many years ago most threads on here were more of this nature. Sure there were disagreements and the occasional flaming, but it didn't exist in nearly every thread as it seems to these days.

Now do you see the power of Tebow? /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Sack

eg8r
12-03-2011, 11:19 AM
The power of Tebow. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r

sack316
12-03-2011, 11:20 AM
He has brought peace among us /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

Sack

eg8r
12-03-2011, 11:27 AM
TEBOW RULES!!!! Someone give that man a Nobel Peace prize to go with his Heisman and bid to HOF. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

It is great to see a non-political thread have this much activity even if it is only a couple people posting.

eg8r

sack316
12-03-2011, 11:40 AM
Yeah, I'm surprised there's not more participation in the sports threads when they are here. In my experience, most folks out at the pool halls have at least a moderate interest in sports in general.

But generally it seems it's usually only you, me LWW, Sofla, and formerly Wolfie that would chime in on them. And Hondo when WVU played Auburn /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Sack

sack316
12-05-2011, 10:12 AM
Well another solid win, and doing so under the pressure of being down 8 in the 4th quarter and coming back to tie. Down 3 late and driving down the field for a FG to tie late.

And although the defense made two very key plays, they also got torched all day by Ponder/Harvin.

Granted it was Minnesota's defense he was throwing against... he was 10-15 for 202 (13.5 yeard per attempt) with a QBR of 149.3. Although still not eye popping statistics, it's another win, another 4th quarter comeback, and showed more improvement on his passing.

sack

eg8r
12-05-2011, 11:24 AM
Each game he seems to be getting better and better. Once his opponents start getting tougher and tougher these mediocre number will probably drop but that is to be expected. He just needs to continue making improvements and not hurting his team with poor play and there is a good chance to becomes a solid qb.

eg8r

hondo
12-05-2011, 12:16 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: sack316</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well another solid win, and doing so under the pressure of being down 8 in the 4th quarter and coming back to tie. Down 3 late and driving down the field for a FG to tie late.

And although the defense made two very key plays, they also got torched all day by Ponder/Harvin.

Granted it was Minnesota's defense he was throwing against... he was 10-15 for 202 (13.5 yeard per attempt) with a QBR of 149.3. Although still not eye popping statistics, it's another win, another 4th quarter comeback, and showed more improvement on his passing.

sack </div></div>

Sack , you're too young to remember this, but he reminds me a little of Bart Starr.
Starr never had a great arm, but he was a winner.
Personally, I hope Tebow continues to do well.

Soflasnapper
12-05-2011, 02:20 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The power of Tebow. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

eg8r </div></div>

The Tower of Pebow, what?

Soflasnapper
12-05-2011, 02:25 PM
Note, a considerable amount of points over 20 in that game for Denver, so either improvement of offensive efficiency, or a very bad opponent's defense (or both).

I didn't see much except the final two drives. The one drop was a decently placed throw by TT, but I thought it was wobbling like an injured duck all the way there. Don't know if that makes it harder to catch than a tight spiral throw-- possibly.

eg8r
12-11-2011, 07:57 PM
TEBOW baby!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

Actually, I relent to admit this was PRATER, PRATER, PRATER!!! That man has a great foot. I was surprised with Tebow going 23.1% passing in the first half. When I saw the score was 0-0 at half, I knew there was a chance. When Chicago went up 10, I actually laughed and said, "wait till Tebow gets the ball". I said that jokingly though just knowing his run cannot keep going forever but he started tossing the ball better and sure enough, in 2 minutes he was able to get the team into position to tie it up and with a miracle fumble in OT they moved the ball again to get the win.

eg8r

Qtec
12-12-2011, 02:46 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">LWW, you have become a parody of yourself, making this a right/left issue!
</div></div>


Everything is a Left right issue with that nutjob. Even when it has nothing to do wit politics.

Q

eg8r
12-12-2011, 09:07 AM
So you show up weeks late to attack? Do you have anything to say about this subject. As you can see we have had good conversation back and forth without your garbage.

eg8r

sack316
12-12-2011, 09:35 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">TEBOW baby!!! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

Actually, I relent to admit this was PRATER, PRATER, PRATER!!! That man has a great foot. I was surprised with Tebow going 23.1% passing in the first half. When I saw the score was 0-0 at half, I knew there was a chance. When Chicago went up 10, I actually laughed and said, "wait till Tebow gets the ball". I said that jokingly though just knowing his run cannot keep going forever but he started tossing the ball better and sure enough, in 2 minutes he was able to get the team into position to tie it up and with a miracle fumble in OT they moved the ball again to get the win.

eg8r </div></div>

Just amazing! I missed the game but caught the highlights... once again nothing too pretty. Except for when the game is on the line and the pressure is on, suddenly it's like something clicks and he finds his zone to get the job done.

And oh yes, Tebow needs to buy Prater a few dinners for sure! I'm not sure of an exact number, but many of these game-tying or winning drives would be nothing without him finishing things off. And he does it like it's nothing. "59 yarder with the game on the line? Sure no problem! I'd do it from 70 if you want!". Not an actual quote, but the poise and ease he presents out there sure would make it seem it's true!

Bad news... next week is against the Pats. So it'll be a tough win. Good news is surprisingly the Pats are the worst passing defense in the league and only adequate against the run. I'm sure oddsmakers won't give Denver much of a shot, but if the Bronco's D can step up they have a shot!

Other good news, they close out against a crumbling Buffalo team and a pretty bad KC team... SHOULD be a 10 win season. I think they need to win the division to get in probably, and I'm not sure who owns the tiebreaker between them and Oakland.

The logic side of me says they make playoffs and are one-and-done. But everything this season for Denver defies all the football logic there is lol.

Sack

hondo
12-12-2011, 01:13 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body">So you show up weeks late to attack? Do you have anything to say about this subject. As you can see we have had good conversation back and forth without your garbage.

eg8r </div></div>

For example this post by ilttle dubbie?




"The reason he is such a surprise to the public is the leftist media went on a jihad to destroy the image of him being an NFL caliber QB once his mother made the commercial explaining why she had the audacity to not abort him when she had the chance.

That and his open embracing of Christianity.

If he were a converted Muslim he would be the media's darling, and any mention that he didn't have the ability to throw the bomb would be deemed racist."

That was what Q was responding to.
eggie, you've always been a little slow but now that you've joined little dubbie's clan, you've lost all discernment. ( Look the word up)

eg8r
12-12-2011, 02:10 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">That was what Q was responding to.
eggie</div></div>Actually idiot he was responding to sofla's post, "LWW, you have become a parody of yourself, making this a right/left issue!" Now are you going to keep running your mouth? How did you ever keep a job teaching students and actully being this dumb yourself? What a joy it was the day you quit. Also, thanks for trying to ruin a perfectly fine thread. Lww's post was ignored. Responded to by sofla and then dropped. It was weeks old till qtip responded to sofla. Then you got stupid and opened the hole in your face once again.

eg8r

hondo
12-12-2011, 06:52 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: eg8r</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">That was what Q was responding to.
eggie</div></div>Actually idiot he was responding to sofla's post, "LWW, you have become a parody of yourself, making this a right/left issue!" Now are you going to keep running your mouth? How did you ever keep a job teaching students and actully being this dumb yourself? What a joy it was the day you quit. Also, thanks for trying to ruin a perfectly fine thread. Lww's post was ignored. Responded to by sofla and then dropped. It was weeks old till qtip responded to sofla. Then you got stupid and opened the hole in your face once again.

eg8r </div></div>

I'm supposed to be an idiot in your mind and yet I'm at least 20 times smarter than you.
What's 20 times dumber than an idiot? An amoeba?
Are you an amoeba, little eggie? /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/laugh.gif
Seriously, little eggie, if you debated a rock , the rock would win because it wouldn't say anything stupid and you would.
My apology to bobroberts for actually thinking you were smarter than him. You're not.

eg8r
12-12-2011, 08:34 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm supposed to be an idiot in your mind and yet I'm at least 20 times smarter than you.
</div></div>LOL, you know what they say about idiots that brag about their "smarts". Good luck with that.

eg8r