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View Full Version : NRO: Jobs report proves economic liftoff occurring



Soflasnapper
03-10-2012, 12:35 PM
From the National Review Online (NRO) 'The Corner,' their take on what the last couple of jobs reports add up to:

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><span style='font-size: 14pt'>Job Creation Only the Tip of the Iceberg</span>
By Kevin Hassett
March 9, 2012 3:38 P.M.


After digging through the details of the jobs report,<span style='font-size: 14pt'> it is clear that the message we delivered last time, that the lift-off has finally happened, has been confirmed by this report. The high level of job creation, and upward revisions to past months, are only the tip of the iceberg.</span> Perhaps the most striking thing is that voluntary quits skyrocketed. This means that workers are confident enough in the labor market that they are willing to quit their job. There was also a big rush back into the labor market. Folks are willing to look for a job again, because they now expect to be able to find one.

It is no coincidence that the private sector is taking off while the government stimulus is winding down. This is consistent with the crowding out story I wrote about in last month’s National Review. The biggest risk to the forecast is that an oil shock might launch us into a sudden reversal. <span style='font-size: 14pt'>It is rather striking that the economy could do this well with gas prices this high, which suggests that the pressure valve has been opened, and the years of pent-up activity that were suppressed by uncertainty over Obama’s policies is finally being released.</span> Thank God for gridlock.
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Of course, any claim they've made about a 'crowding out' effect is bogus, as that would require some very tight conditions be in place for any crowding out to occur.

cushioncrawler
03-10-2012, 04:01 PM
Delta smelta watching.
8, 9, whatever, wont go 15 anyhow.
mac.

eg8r
03-10-2012, 04:14 PM
If the economy is half as good as they are hoping then that is great news.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
03-11-2012, 12:24 PM
Could be much better than that, in fact.

See my household survey job growth much higher thread.

429,000 more jobs in February than January, according to that survey method.

eg8r
03-11-2012, 09:57 PM
Yeah, well you know just as well as I do that we are not at a plus of 429,000 for the month. All these numbers are wishy washy.

Remember the big job boom when the census was starting up? Why didn't Obama let us know that he turned around and laid off all those part time employees? These numbers mean very little in the present. It is fine to get all excited over these numbers but until we see something like this month after month after month nothing really is changing.

I don't know how these specific numbers were counted, but did they include jobs that people willingly left for something better? If so then that is misleading as it was a net zero increase. Someone did post a quote here in the last couple days that employees are starting willingly quick to look for something better. I am just wondering how they are being counted.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
03-12-2012, 09:44 AM
That would only be a little more than 8,000 a state, so I don't think it's impossible a) that it's happening, and b) no one particularly notices.

I don't know enough to get down in the weeds of the choices that are made about how to count these things. For instance, why wouldn't a second job for a person be counted as a new job? There's a wage being paid, and a person involved, who would likely have to be replaced if he couldn't do the work.

I don't pretend to know which of these job measures is least inaccurate (I assume both have their areas of inaccuracy), so I'm just mentioning it in passing as of interest. If there's any validity to the second measure, even given whatever caveats should be remembered, it's a far rosier scenario than we'd otherwise think.