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Sev
06-12-2012, 11:42 AM
Could be an indication Obama is bleeding the youth vote.
OH THE HORROR!!!!

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pete...ding-youth-vote (http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/06/08/scott-walkers-recall-victory-shows-barack-obama-may-be-bleeding-youth-vote)

<span style='font-size: 23pt'>Scott Walker’s Recall Victory Shows Barack Obama May Be Bleeding Youth Vote</span>

Folks are still crunching the numbers coming out of Gov. Scott Walker's victory in Tuesday's Wisconsin recall, which is only producing more bad news for President Barack Obama.

In its aftermath the race is shaping up as a proxy for the president's potential performance against his likely opponent in the November 2012 election, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Wisconsin is critical to both campaigns, with Obama unlikely to be able to win without it and Romney much more easily able to reach the "magic number" of 270 electoral votes if he carries it.

What the president will be able to do depends in large part on how much of his winning coalition he can reassemble later this year. It's not looking good, especially among the younger voters who were such an important part of Obama's 2008 victory.

According to Crossroads Generation, a group dedicated to reaching young people with the messages promoting individual liberty, limited government, and free enterprise, in the recall election Walker carried the vote of those under the age of 25.

"According to exit polling," the group said, "for voters aged 18-29, the Democrats' advantage among this group was cut in half compared to 2010. While Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett held a ten-point advantage among 18-29 year olds in the 2010 election, that gap was reduced to five points in Tuesday's election."

Younger voters were a significant presence in Tuesday's election. Voters under the age of 30, Crossroads Generation said, made up 16 percent of all voters in the recall election, a higher proportion than in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

"Wisconsin is a state where young voters make a big difference," said Crossroads' Kristen Soltis, who see the results as predictive for the fall. "When an election is focused on the economy and fiscal responsibility, my generation is ready to support candidates with plans for getting us back on track," she said.

If Obama is having trouble attracting younger voters to his coalition, as the results from Wisconsin suggest may be the case, then it will be just that much harder for him to go on to victory in the presidential race. The White House is hoping for a "base election," one in which each party turns out as many of its most stalwart supporters as it can while independents, moderates, and occasional voters stay home, as was the case in George W. Bush's victory over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in 2004. Romney, on the other hand, looks to be running a campaign that broadens the base, reaching out to everyone who is unhappy with the way the president has governed over the last four years, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980. At the moment anyway, it looks like more voters help Romney while fewer voters are the key Obama's re-election.

Soflasnapper
06-12-2012, 12:28 PM
Speculative weasel-wording all throughout this piece.

Check out the author's background, and his use of Crossroads Generation as a key quoted source, somehow failing to mention this is a GOP Super-PAC founded by Karl Rove?

May be, if...

Geeze. In a failed candidacy, where the guy also lost to Walker just a bit ago already, with no significant attention from the DNC or Obama himself, outspent whatever, what is the bottom line for the young voters that is so troubling?

Barrett still had a 5 point margin over Walker in the 18-29 (i.e., young adult) age range.

Where did he do badly or lose them, and who says so, on what evidence?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> According to Crossroads Generation, a group dedicated to reaching young people with the messages promoting individual liberty, limited government, and free enterprise, in the recall election Walker carried the vote of those under the age of 25.</div></div>

Oh, really? Got the majority of the 18-25 YO vote, and then LOST the 18-29 YO total vote by 5%. On what basis does CG claim to know this? Gosh they don't say. Surprising.

And this shows OBAMA is failing to get these people TO HIS COALITION, how exactly?

Y'all fall for some weakly crafted propaganda, and I must say, over and over again from the obviously same usual suspects.

Sev
06-12-2012, 12:59 PM
Could be I'm not the one falling for something. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Soflasnapper
06-12-2012, 01:27 PM
It's not looking good, especially among the younger voters who were such an important part of Obama's 2008 victory.

This claim may be true, and it may not be true.

But that an already losing candidate WON the 18-29 by 5 points in a second loss, who is NOT OBAMA but a lackluster local pol of zero charisma to appeal to younger voters, without O putting his push behind him, shows literally NOTHING about O losing young voters.

Although, as I say, he may be. This has nothing to do with evidence for that, however. I think it's important to know what this (even allegedly) shows, by actually reading the details provided.

As I've mentioned, headlines and lede paragraphs are often intentionally misleading, especially when written by partisans, whose cited numbers come from a Karl Rove Super-PAC. Or do you claim they are on the up-and-up and wholly trustworthy when they make claims about politics?

Gayle in MD
06-12-2012, 02:42 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sev</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Could be an indication Obama is bleeding the youth vote.
OH THE HORROR!!!!

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pete...ding-youth-vote (http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/06/08/scott-walkers-recall-victory-shows-barack-obama-may-be-bleeding-youth-vote)

<span style='font-size: 23pt'>Scott Walker’s Recall Victory Shows Barack Obama May Be Bleeding Youth Vote</span>

Folks are still crunching the numbers coming out of Gov. Scott Walker's victory in Tuesday's Wisconsin recall, which is only producing more bad news for President Barack Obama.

In its aftermath the race is shaping up as a proxy for the president's potential performance against his likely opponent in the November 2012 election, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Wisconsin is critical to both campaigns, with Obama unlikely to be able to win without it and Romney much more easily able to reach the "magic number" of 270 electoral votes if he carries it.

What the president will be able to do depends in large part on how much of his winning coalition he can reassemble later this year. It's not looking good, especially among the younger voters who were such an important part of Obama's 2008 victory.

According to Crossroads Generation, a group dedicated to reaching young people with the messages promoting individual liberty, limited government, and free enterprise, in the recall election Walker carried the vote of those under the age of 25.

"According to exit polling," the group said, "for voters aged 18-29, the Democrats' advantage among this group was cut in half compared to 2010. While Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett held a ten-point advantage among 18-29 year olds in the 2010 election, that gap was reduced to five points in Tuesday's election."

Younger voters were a significant presence in Tuesday's election. Voters under the age of 30, Crossroads Generation said, made up 16 percent of all voters in the recall election, a higher proportion than in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

"Wisconsin is a state where young voters make a big difference," said Crossroads' Kristen Soltis, who see the results as predictive for the fall. "When an election is focused on the economy and fiscal responsibility, my generation is ready to support candidates with plans for getting us back on track," she said.

If Obama is having trouble attracting younger voters to his coalition, as the results from Wisconsin suggest may be the case, then it will be just that much harder for him to go on to victory in the presidential race. The White House is hoping for a "base election," one in which each party turns out as many of its most stalwart supporters as it can while independents, moderates, and occasional voters stay home, as was the case in George W. Bush's victory over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in 2004. Romney, on the other hand, looks to be running a campaign that broadens the base, reaching out to everyone who is unhappy with the way the president has governed over the last four years, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980. At the moment anyway, it looks like more voters help Romney while fewer voters are the key Obama's re-election. </div></div>


LOL...c'mon! Crossroads?


<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/06/1097831/-GOP-outplaying-its-Wisconsin-hand

Wed Jun 06, 2012 at 05:48 AM PDT

<span style='font-size: 17pt'>GOP outplaying its Wisconsin hand</span>


I'm not going to sugarcoat it, losing the governor's race in Wisconsin sucked. While we'll crunch the numbers on turnout in a later post, the exit polls point to two major reasons why we weren't able to recall Scott Walker.

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>First, 60 percent of voters thought that recall elections were only appropriate for official misconduct, while 27 percent said "any reason." Another 10 percent said "never"—and those voted for Walker 94-5. It's hard going into any election with 10 percent immediately off the board, and for those who said "only official misconduct," Walker won 68-31. Turns out people just didn't like the idea of a recall—something worth filing away as an important lesson learned.</span>Second of all, young people didn't turn out. Only 16 percent of the electorate was 18-29, compared to 22 percent in 2008. That's the difference between 646,212 and 400,599 young voters, or about 246,000. Walker won by 172,739 votes. Turns out having the recall in the summer, when the universities were out, was among the biggest strategic miscalculations.

So given all that, it was interesting to see Republicans pretend Wisconsin will be in play in November. The GOP chair, Reince Priebus:


Republicans have the infrastructure and enthusiasm that will help us defeat President Obama in Wisconsin. In that respect, it was a great ‘dry run.
AP:

“Romney now plans to compete in the state aggressively, looking to capitalize on the Republican momentum … His team considers Wisconsin a top target, … and more attractive than even Romney's native Michigan, where the campaign had hoped to establish an Upper Midwest beachhead. ‘The close vote on Tuesday confirms that Wisconsin will be a swing state,’ said Republican strategist Terry Nelson, an adviser to George W. Bush
The reality is, yesterday's election was better than any phone poll, because it gave us the voting preferences of two and a half million actual voters, and this is what the exit polls tell us:

<span style='font-size: 20pt'>If the presidential election were today, for whom would you vote?

Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 44</span><span style='font-size: 14pt'>A seven-point lead, Obama over 50 percent, despite lacking participation of one of Obama's biggest constituencies (young voters), does not suggest a particularly close race this November. If Republicans want to dump their millions (and they'll have plenty of those) here, they're free to do so. If nothing else, we just learned that money really can talk with these elections.</span>
But the Right's messaging tapped into voter discontent with the whole concept of the recall election itself. That won't fly in November. Nor will Republicans win back the 18 percent of Obama supporters who pulled the trigger for Walker.

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>Or put in real numbers, there were almost 230,000 Obama supporters that opted to let Walker finish out his term but have no current interest in voting for Romney. How will Team Red flip that vote while contending with other pro-Obama constituencies that didn't turn out last night?</span>They won't.
</div></div>


/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/grin.gif

A pretty reasonable no-spin follow up, with less embroidery, and more facts, just what the RW pundits hate.

/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Soflasnapper
06-12-2012, 02:51 PM
Good analysis piece!

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">But the Right's messaging tapped into voter discontent with the whole concept of the recall election itself. That won't fly in November. </div></div>

I wouldn't put it past them to try that:

"The out of touch elite Democrats think you taxpayers should have to pay for elections every two years! Don't you think we've had enough of those lately?? Since we are broke <s>under their failed leadership of our state government</s> [ok, this needs a re-write before we put it out! Get Frank Luntz on the phone!], tell the Democratic elites that we do not need their costly elections so often!!!"

Gayle in MD
06-12-2012, 02:58 PM
LOl, it would probably work in Alabama, Texas and Mississippi, oh, and maybe in North Carolina, lol... /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

G.

Sev
06-12-2012, 03:16 PM
You have to take all polls with a grain of salt.