View Full Version : Obama losing NY Jews!!

06-12-2012, 04:40 PM


<span style='font-size: 23pt'>Obama's Jewish Support Drops 22 Points in New York
President Obama's support among Jewish voters in the state of New York has dropped 22 percentage points in only a month, according to the results of a just released poll.
obama yarmulke

The poll, conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama's lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points.

Previously, in Siena's May poll, Obama had the support 62 percent of Jewish New Yorkers, while 32 percent opposed him. That means, last month, Obama's lead among this group of voters was at a strong 30 percentage points.

Those polled were responding to this straight forward question: "If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were [Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or Don't know]?

Additionally, Jewish voters in New York overwhelmingly believe that America is "headed in the wrong direction" as opposed to "the right track," by a margin of 62 percent to 31 percent.

Perhaps most troubling for President Obama's prospects with Jewish voters were these two questions. "Overall, would you say that you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, about the same as you were four years ago, or worse off today than you were four years ago?," the poll asked. Only 13 percent of Jewish New Yorkers said that they are better off now, under Obama, while 41 percent said that they are doing worse. (Forty-five percent said they're doing the same.)

Gayle in MD
06-13-2012, 10:32 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 09:00 AM PDT

Republicans think they're going to win the Jewish vote. Again.

Every year, Republicans convince themselves that this is the year they make significant headway into the Jewish vote. Then every year, those hopes are tragically dashed. In 2008, Obama won the Jewish vote 78-21.
In 2010, the national Jewish vote was too small to register in the exit polls (the Dem base sat the election out). But a post-election poll commissioned by J-Street found that Jewish voters voted for Democratic candidates 66-31. It's not even close to an apples to apples comparison (exit poll vs phone poll), but it's certainly plausible, particularly since the smaller GOP Jewish vote would turn out in greater numbers than demoralized Democratic-leaning Jewish voters. It could be analogous to the white vote that year, in which Democrats won just 37 percent of it.

Indeed, Republicans won women in 2010. No one is pretending they'll repeat that feat this year.

Still, like Charlie Brown, Republicans really thing that this is the year they'll be able to kick Lucy's football. Witness Rick Santorum take a whack:

“We’ve seen a dramatic transformation in this country,” said Santorum, “with Jews all across this country now understanding that the values of the Republican Party are in concert with theirs.”
Or Michael Medved:

Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith, so often described as an impediment to his political prospects, might work to his advantage with one crucial segment of the electorate: Jewish voters.
There's more, but you get the point. The first indication that Republicans are whiffing yet again? The Jewish share of the GOP primary turnout in Florida was down to 1 percent this year, from 3 percent in 2008. In Nevada, Jewish voters were 2 percent of the GOP turnout in both 2008 and 2012. In Arizona, they notched 0 percent of the primary vote this year, compared to 1 percent in 2008. In Illinois, it was the opposite—0 percent of the GOP primary vote in 2008, compared to 1 percent this year.
In other words, it's all float within the margin of error, and certainly no massive wave of newfound support for the GOP.

Back in March, a poll from the American Jewish Council didn't give Republicans much hope:

Knowledge Networks for the American Jewish Council. 3/14-27. American Jews. MoE 4.8% (9/6-21 results)

Barack Obama 61
Mitt Romney 28
Now, Gallup (which hasn't been friendly to Obama) has further bad news for Republicans hoping to finally kick Lucy's football:

Gallup has started tracking Jewish voters for the 2012 presidential elections, and its findings are commensurate with other polling, with President Obama enjoying a 35 point lead over Mitt Romney.
The poll of 576 Jews culled from the pollster's daily tracking of registered U.S. voters from April 11-June 5, found that Jewish voters favored Obama over the former Massachusetts governor and all-but-certain Republican nominee 64-29.

And check this out:

It also is commensurate with polling in the same period by Gallup during the 2008 election, when Obama vs. John McCain, the then GOP candidate, scored 61-32, 57-35 and 62-31 in April, May and June of that year, respectively.
Not only is Obama's Jewish support not slipping, it is up four points from the best Spring polling in 2008. And as you can see by Obama's final 78-21 margin with Jewish voters in 2008, he has a history of over-performing the polling with this demographic.



06-13-2012, 10:39 AM
NY is a trend setting city.
Give it 5 months. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif

Gayle in MD
06-13-2012, 10:52 AM
LOL...glad to accomodate!


06-13-2012, 11:02 AM
In just one month???

For what reason, supposedly?

Nothing has happened much one way or another. One bad

As the helpful Weekly Standard does not link to the poll (for unknown but knowable reasons), what should be made of this huge month-over-month change?

Perhaps that there is a 10% margin of error on both numbers, last month's and this month's? That could make the two months' numbers equal, considering the MOE.

Without context, these numbers are not analyzable.

BTW, as of yesterday, this was the OTHER Siena College poll number:

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Siena Poll: Obama opens up lead over Romney
New York just got a little bluer, at least according to the latest Siena College poll looking at the race for president.
President Obama has opened up his lead over Republican Mitt Romney to 24 percentage points, which is up a couple of ticks from last month.
44% of those polled say the county is worse off today than it was four years ago.
30% say its better and 25% think it's about the same.
The people who responded say Obama and Romney couldn't be farther apart philosophically. By a 61-35% margin those polled say the race for the White House is a clear choice between two distinct visions for our future.
No major surprises here considering we're in New York, a historically Democratic state.
Steve Greenberg from Siena weighs in on the results.


Video at link (http://www.cbs6albany.com/news/top-stories/stories/vid_1422.shtml) from the Albany local television news.

Now think this through.

The NY electoral vote is determined by the statewide total, not the Jewish voter subtotal. If the latter is indeed down, and the total figure is still up, then it is up enough to more than compensate for the supposed loss in the Jewish part of the electorate.

And that is in the face of the same negative view of how things are going.

So, a more complete headline would say, DESPITE apparent losses in Jewish support, Obama stretches large lead in state over Romney to titanic lead.

06-13-2012, 11:58 AM
We are a fickle people.

06-13-2012, 04:39 PM
Near-sighted, and heavily propagandized, as your article demonstrates for the latter.

06-13-2012, 06:21 PM
Hey!!! Leave my eyes out of this!!!

06-14-2012, 08:53 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Whether any of these tensions will affect Mr. Obama’s re-election effort is difficult to assess. With both camps expecting a close election, even a small swing among Jewish voters could make a difference in battleground states such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

David Harris, CEO of the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington, said support for Mr. Obama among Jewish voters is still strong.

Referring to the Gallup poll, Mr. Harris noted that Mr. Obama’s support in June 2008 among Jewish voters was 62 percent, about where it is now. He said it’s meaningless to compare this month’s Gallup poll with election results from November 2008.

Also, he said, the Gallup poll found a gap of 35 percentage points between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney among Jewish voters, compared with the 29-point gap between Mr. Obama and GOP nominee John McCain in June 2008.

“A lot of social issues are very important to American Jews — issues like choice, civil rights, gay rights, women’s issues,” Mr. Harris said. “And there’s a chasm separating these two candidates on so many domestic issues. There isn’t when it comes to Israel. That’s not where the clash is.”

He predicted that Mr. Obama would meet or exceed the 74 percent support from Jewish voters that he received in 2008.

The American Jewish community traditionally supports the Democratic candidate overwhelmingly in presidential elections. Since 1988, all Democratic nominees have received at least 64 percent of the Jewish vote. The worst performance by a Democrat in recent years was President Carter in 1980, who received 45 percent of the Jewish vote compared with 39 percent for Republican Ronald Reagan.

A Siena College poll taken in New York from June 3 to June 6 showed that Mr. Obama’s support among Jewish voters dropped from 62 percent to 51 percent in one month.

<span style='font-size: 14pt'>But that survey questioned only 80 Jewish voters in an overall sample of 807, which Mr. Harris said was “hardly enough people to get any accurate read of New York City’s more than 1 million Jews.” And Mr. Obama isn’t in danger of losing New York in November. </span></div></div>

Even the Washington Times, no friend of Democrats or Obama, got this story right. Here is the cited quote. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/13/obama-aims-to-shore-up-jewish-support/?page=all#pagebreak)

How hackish is the Weekly Standard? Massively.

What do you suppose is the margin of error for **80** persons? Also massive.

06-15-2012, 06:02 AM
Thats why you have to take all polls with a grain of salt. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

06-15-2012, 08:39 AM
Yessir I always do. And some more than others.

Some people here, and partisans everywhere, seem not to.