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DiabloViejo
09-26-2012, 03:30 PM
<span style='font-size: 14pt'><span style="color: #000099">Public opinion has a well-known liberal bias.</span> </span> /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

<span style='font-size: 17pt'>6 Conservatives Who Think The Media Is Fixing The Polls For Obama</span>
By Aviva Shen on Sep 26, 2012 at 3:24 pm
ThinkProgress.com (http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/09/26/915251/6-conservatives-who-think-the-media-is-fixing-the-polls-for-obama/)

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/polls2-300x171.jpg


With six weeks until Election Day, new polling (http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/26/politics/battleground-polls/index.html) from Quinnipiac, the New York Times and CBS News shows President Obama leading in crucial swing states including Ohio, Florida and Iowa. As Obama’s lead grows, so does the number of conservatives who claim polls in general are biased and cannot be trusted. Similar to their dismissal of fact-checkers (http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/08/28/756041/romney-political-director-welfare-ads/) who flagged lies in Romney’s ads and Paul Ryan’s convention speech, conservatives are now claiming the media outlets that conduct the polls are attempting to discourage Republicans from voting by falsely tipping the polls toward Democrats.

Helping this narrative along is a new website, Unskewed Polls (http://www.unskewedpolls.com/) , which claims, after liberal media bias is removed, Romney is in fact beating Obama by a wide margin in every poll. Business Insider unpacked (http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewedpolls-2012-9) how the website is manipulating data to come up with a Romney victory.

Nicknamed “poll sample truthers” by David Weigel (http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/25/opening_act_the_poll_sample_truthers.html) , the skeptics are falling over each other to explain how the numbers are lying:

Erick Erickson
Erickson, Editor-in-Chief of RedState.com and CNN political contributor, accuses the media of a “confirmation bias” that makes them conform their data to what they want: “The polls are confirming what the press thinks and that they have a larger than 2008 Democratic turnout is of no consequence to them.”

John McLaughlin
The Republican pollster explains the poll conspiracy: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want.”

Hugh Hewitt
Radio host Hugh Hewitt thinks the CBS/Quinnipiac/NYT poll is “junk”, choosing instead to focus on Rasmussen and Gallup’s daily polls, which have Obama leading by a smaller margin. These polls, he says, amounts to “lots of evidence this morning that their campaign is in terrific shape.”

Dick Morris
Tea Party icon Dick Morris insists if the election were held today Romney would win by “4 or 5 points,” carrying Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania — leading Sean Hannity to exclaim, “Oh, come on!” Morris later declares, “The polling this year is the worst it’s ever been.”

Watch it: http://youtu.be/TPF33WCtols

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL)
Mack’s Senate campaign manager dismissed polls finding him behind in the Florida race, saying, “A variety of polls commissioned by the media have attempted to paint the Florida Senate race in a light that is simply not accurate.”

Bret Baier/Fox News
Bret Baier hosts a segment warning how “the fine print” of polls could skew data because of oversampling, which Business Insider attributes to higher voter registration among Democrats.
The Romney campaign is also insisting the data showing they are losing is inaccurate. One adviser scoffed, “Public polls are what public polls are,” and claimed they had an internal poll that put the race much closer.

UPDATE:

Rush Limbaugh also outlined the pollster conspiracy on his radio show: “They’re all Democrats. They’re all liberals. They just have different jobs. The polls are the replacement refs. They see certain things. They don’t see other things. They don’t call certain things, and other things go by. In this case, what they’re trying to do is exactly what they’ve done in your case: frustrate you, make you pull your hair out, say, what the hell’s happening to the country? They want you thinking the country’s lost. They want you thinking your side’s lost. They want you thinking it’s over for what you believe. And that makes you stay home and not vote. That’s what they’re hoping.”

UPDATE:

Not to be outdone, Sean Hannity accused the media of cooking the numbers deliberately on his radio show Wednesday afternoon: “They want to deflate enthusiasm of conservatives. The narrative the media would like to advance is, this is over, don’t even bother paying attention, let’s move on. That’s not true by any stretch. These polls are so skewed, so phony, that we need to start paying attention to what’s going on so that you won’t be deflated.”

Gayle in MD
09-27-2012, 09:56 AM
LMAO!

Fox, Gallop and "Rasmucous" all lean conseervative, and all three have the President in the lead.

More alternate universe skewed conspiracy theories.

The Repigs are full of that BS.

Soflasnapper
09-29-2012, 02:32 PM
But Gallup and Rasmussen were both together (before recent weeks) in showing the occasional R-Money LEAD in the polls, when the consensus and average of the rest was not showing that.

The question to ask these people is if the media is liberal, and the polling they are commissioning NOW is skewed (to help their preferred candidate), why didn't they do that before this election cycle? Why couldn't they gin up such a lead for Kerry? Or last time, for Obama?

LWW
09-29-2012, 03:34 PM
The numbers aren't lying, the liars are ... and you obediently embrace the lie.

LWW
09-29-2012, 03:43 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The question to ask these people is if the media is liberal, and the polling they are commissioning NOW is skewed (to help their preferred candidate), why didn't they do that before this election cycle? Why couldn't they gin up such a lead for Kerry? Or last time, for Obama? </div></div>

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Updated: 2004-10-03 09:38

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, buoyed by a strong showing in his televised debate with George W. Bush, has recaptured a small lead in their White House race, a Newsweek poll showed.

The survey, the first released on the race since the debate Thursday, gave Kerry a 49-46 percent edge over Bush among registered voters in a two-way matchup, and a 47-45 percent margin in a contest also involving independent Ralph Nader.

</div></div>

Were you living in a cave? (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2097193/posts)

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> YouGov’s final survey for The Economist on the American presidential election shows John Kerry holding a three point lead over President George W Bush.
YouGov questioned 2,903 American electors between Friday October 29 and Monday November 1. Of these, 2,164 either had already voted (294) or were certain to vote, even if there were “a long line of people waiting to vote” (1,870). Excluding the 20 respondents who refused to say who they supported, or were still making up their minds, support was divided among the main candidates as follows:
John Kerry 50% George Bush 47% Ralph Nader 1% Others 2%</div></div>

Under a bridge? (http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/FinalPrediction.pdf)

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT
All exit polls predict Kerry will be victor

Polls not considered highly reliable, though Republicans typically vote earlier in day

By John Byrne | RAW STORY EDITOR

Sen. John Kerry looks to make a victory of the electoral college, according to all sets of exit polls conducted by a consortium of six media organizations (the National Election Pool) that RAW STORY has acquired and confirmed with myriad sources.

Advertisement

The first, third and final round give Kerry a wide berth in all critical swing states. The second round put Kerry ahead in Ohio and Florida, but only by a one point margin.
The latest national exit polls puts Kerry up 51-48 percent nationally. </div></div>

The demedia was pimping the same lie until the polls closed. (http://www.rawstory.com/exclusives/byrne/early_exit_polls_kerry_win_1102.htm)

Anything else I can help you with?

Soflasnapper
09-29-2012, 05:33 PM
Uh, Lar?

Have the debates been held already? Aren't they coming up?

Where does what you dug up show the polling giving Kerry a lead post convention pre-debates, you know, in order to discourage the conservative voters?

A lead that appeared after the debates isn't relevant in this case.

And neither are the exit polls a way to discourage conservative voters, on the very day of the election. Those results were embargoed from the main way the people see the election results, the television media.

Good try. No good. Try again, if you think you have a case. Or just admit defeat, directly would be best, or by slinking away to not post again, or with a 'snappy' (sappy) comeback instead of data.

DiabloViejo
09-30-2012, 03:53 AM
I'm pretty sure he'll go with snappy/sappy comeback..it's just his style. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

LWW
09-30-2012, 09:44 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">April 27, 2004

Presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, although the race appears to be fluid and remains close.

The poll, released Monday, found that among likely voters, Kerry was the choice of 52 percent and Bush 44 percent in a two-way matchup, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, Kerry had 50 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 2 percent. </div></div>

Next lame excuse? (http://articles.cnn.com/2004-03-08/politics/elect04.prez.poll_1_kerry-and-bush-poll-bush-cheney?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS)

LWW
09-30-2012, 09:45 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> February 02, 2004


Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner among Democrats vying for their party's presidential nomination, leads President Bush in a head-to-head matchup, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

</div></div>

OH DEAR! (http://articles.cnn.com/2004-02-02/politics/elec04.poll.prez_1_job-approval-poll-democratic-candidates?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS)

LWW
09-30-2012, 09:47 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 6/10/2004 11:47:30 AM ET

LOS ANGELES — Democratic candidate John Kerry leads President Bush 51 percent to 44 percent among American voters in a two-way race for president, according to a Los Angeles Times poll published Thursday.
Kerry’s margin of 7 percentage points shrinks only slightly to 6 percentage points, 48-42, in a three-way race with independent candidate Ralph Nader getting 4 percentage points, poll results show.</div></div>

JUMPING BUTTERBALLS! (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5181338/ns/politics/t/kerry-leads-bush-points-new-poll/#.UGhpP5G9KSM)

LWW
09-30-2012, 09:49 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> February 19, 2004
Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters
Support stimulated by especially high interest among Democrats
by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a hypothetical presidential contest, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 55% to 43%, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards leads Bush by 10 points, 54% to 44%. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, these figures represent a significant improvement in the Democratic candidates' strength from 10 days ago, when Bush had a one-point lead over Kerry and a four-point lead over Edwards. At the end of January, Kerry enjoyed a seven-point lead and Edwards a one-point lead.</div></div>

GET IT YET? (http://www.gallup.com/poll/10687/kerry-edwards-lead-bush-double-digits-among-likely-voters.aspx)

LWW
09-30-2012, 09:52 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: DiabloViejo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm pretty sure he'll go with <s>snappy/sappy comeback</s> the facts..it's just his style. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif </div></div>

I fixed that for you trollboy.

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:38 AM
Let's take the wayback machine for a ride.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">September 16 — Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore leads Republican rival George W. Bush by twelve points, according to a new Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 14 and 15. Among registered voters, Gore holds a 50 percent to 38 percent advantage, statistically unchanged from his 47-to-39 percent edge in last week’s poll. </div></div>

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF? (http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/08/06/reminder-about-biased-polls-gore-leads-bush-by-12-points-in-september-2000-newsweek/)

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:43 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Bush Leads Dukakis, 48% to 44%, in Gallup Poll
August 24, 1988

WASHINGTON — Last week's Republican National Convention moved Vice President George Bush into a 48%-44% lead for the November election, ending Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis' long domination of the presidential race, a poll by the Gallup Organization has found. However, voters' immediate reactions to Bush's choice of Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle as his running mate were equivocal.</div></div>

It's like a nightmare for y'all ... it keeps getting worse. (http://articles.latimes.com/1988-08-24/news/mn-820_1_gallup-poll)

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:47 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> July 23, 1984 | Associated Press

Washington (AP) A Gallup Poll taken for Newsweek magazine puts the Democratic Mondale-Ferraro ticket ahead of President Reagan for the first time in a major public opinion survey.

The poll, taken as the Democratic convention was winding up on Thursday and Friday and after the candidates had received extensive primetime television coverage, found the team of Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro endorsed by 48 percent of those polled.

Forty-six percent of the respondents said they favored the Republican ticket of Reagan and Vice President George Bush, while 6 percent said they were undecided about who they wanted to win the November election.</div></div>

And that one was an arse whooping of Biblical proportion in the end. (http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=EzNTAAAAIBAJ&sjid=CIMDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6849%2C2861380)

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:50 AM
Carter leads Reagan at the end of October, 1980 ... according to the liars you adore. (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=19801028&id=jJ9RAAAAIBAJ&sjid=z20DAAAAIBAJ&pg=2423,4489689)

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:53 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The question to ask these people is if the media is liberal, and the polling they are commissioning NOW is skewed (to help their preferred candidate), why didn't they do that before this election cycle? </div></div>

The party couldn't survive without such obedient, and clueless, oafs such as yourself.

LWW
09-30-2012, 10:54 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: DiabloViejo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm pretty sure he'll go with snappy/sappy comeback..it's just his style. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif </div></div>

This is where you accept your arse as it's handed to you and then claim victory.

Soflasnapper
09-30-2012, 11:39 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">April 27, 2004

Presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, although the race appears to be fluid and remains close.

The poll, released Monday, found that among likely voters, Kerry was the choice of 52 percent and Bush 44 percent in a two-way matchup, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, Kerry had 50 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 2 percent. </div></div>

Next lame excuse? (http://articles.cnn.com/2004-03-08/politics/elect04.prez.poll_1_kerry-and-bush-poll-bush-cheney?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS) </div></div>

Thanks for these links, this one, and the rest.

I think it goes without question that many polling orgs put out biased polling, or just bad polling. It's a well known phenomenon. In fact, Gallup is still doing it now, with this year's display of pro-GOP bias in their sampling or whatever the reason is.

I guess, as you've charged of me in the past, you think Gallup is great now, or at least, accurate, when they line up with Rasmussen's skewing of the electorate's partisan makeup.

I didn't ask for one-offs, from the usual suspects-- I asked for a general showing that the near-entirety of the pollsters had done this in concert.

To show that, providing citations to this or that poll is simply insufficient. That Carter led Reagan in October, for example. That isn't what was generally shown. By the average of the polls, Reagan led as early as May of that year and led the whole way. The vagaries of the sampling mix can lead to very 'off' results, and we see that in virtually all pollsters, including Rasmussen and Zogby, etc.

BTW, Zogby at one time was the go-to, gold standard pollster for the right and the GOP. Do you know why he is now unmentioned, and so fallen from favor? Is it his move to cheap but highly dubious on-line polling?

LWW
09-30-2012, 11:47 AM
That's what you get from this ... GALLUP is biased towards Romney?

Seriously?

Soflasnapper
09-30-2012, 01:24 PM
They are apparently biased toward a partisan split model from the 2010 midterms, as opposed to the '08 partisan split results.

Which has the effect of skewing toward the GOP, as the GOP did indeed enjoy the partisan advantage in the mid-term election, without Obama on the ballot to bring out the base.

With Obama heading the ticket to bring out the base, in what is being referred to as a base turnout election, it seems obvious that the '10 partisan split of party affiliations is quite a dead letter, and closer to the '08 model is far more likely.

Now that Rasmussen itself, and polling commissioned by Fox News (possibly by Rasmussen, as he had a proprietary relationship with Fox, under a differently branded name), show the same widening spreads for Obama, how is it remotely plausible to think the other polling orgs have it skewed?

That now Rasmussen and Fox are in on it? Please explain your theory in this regard. Thank you.