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View Full Version : O-bots head to the tallest building in town ...



LWW
10-05-2012, 01:46 PM
ROMNEY +11 (http://unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewsquickpoll.cfm)

Soflasnapper
10-05-2012, 01:57 PM
This guy has had it at +11 Romney for some weeks now.

This is not anything new at this point. Based on the prior numbers being this same 11% lead, he went nowhere on the number.

LWW
10-05-2012, 02:02 PM
The next results will certainly be higher ... but I expected denial from you.

LWW
10-05-2012, 02:05 PM
If you want something as objective as the dembot polls ...

ROMNEY +22 (http://weeklyworldnews.com/politics/51481/shock-poll-romney-leads-obama-by-22-points/)

Soflasnapper
10-05-2012, 02:06 PM
No, I'll suppose the needle did move, but correct this guy's unwarranted reskewing (that even Scott Rasmussen says is inappropriate methodology) by adding back the approx. 14 points he's off by, by current poll average consensus.

Gayle in MD
10-06-2012, 08:47 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">No, I'll suppose the needle did move, but correct this guy's unwarranted reskewing (that even Scott Rasmussen says is inappropriate methodology) by adding back the approx. 14 points he's off by, by current poll average consensus. </div></div>

The only reliable polls are those which average all the polls, or at the least show a list of all of the major polls.

Romney is still behind, and he has been behind throughout the entire campaign.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

Soflasnapper
10-06-2012, 09:39 AM
I agree that the averages get closer to the truth, most likely.

One further refinement to that averaging method is to average them all except Rasmussen and Gallup, and take that number. (People doing that show both averages, with and without those.)

Theory is that for whatever reason (well, Rasmussen is a house pollster, Gallup? who knows just disagreeing with every other non-Rasmussen pollster), those two are consistent outliers, so using them in the average skews even the averages too much.

Gayle in MD
10-06-2012, 10:34 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I agree that the averages get closer to the truth, most likely.

One further refinement to that averaging method is to average them all except Rasmussen and Gallup, and take that number. (People doing that show both averages, with and without those.)

Theory is that for whatever reason (well, Rasmussen is a house pollster, Gallup? who knows just disagreeing with every other non-Rasmussen pollster), those two are consistent outliers, so using them in the average skews even the averages too much. </div></div>

I agree, which is why is wrote:

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">or at the least show a list of all of the major polls.

</div></div>


That gives one the opportunity to adjust for Rasmucous and Gallup. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/wink.gif

Qtec
10-06-2012, 11:56 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">UnSkewedPolls.com Favorite sites: American Thinker | Freedomist.com | DickMorris.com | Thomas Sowell | Walter E. Williams | Rush Limbaugh | Laura Ingraham </div></div>

LOL

Q

Qtec
10-07-2012, 12:03 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Conservatives Embrace Alternate Polling Reality

Dean Chambers, founder of unskewedpolls.com, has reweighted national polling data based on Rasmussen partisan trends. His results give Romney a wide lead. </div></div>

link (http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality)
Q

Gayle in MD
10-07-2012, 01:23 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Qtec</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Conservatives Embrace Alternate Polling Reality

Dean Chambers, founder of unskewedpolls.com, has reweighted national polling data based on Rasmussen partisan trends. His results give Romney a wide lead. </div></div>

link (http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality)
Q </div></div>

Romney is so far ahead, and there are sooooooo many Tea party people out there who will stand in line to elected him, that I don't think the intelligent Republicans should worry one bit if they don't feel like going out to vote in this election.

It's in the bag for Romney.

There is no chance for Obama to win.

G.

LWW
10-07-2012, 02:29 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I agree that the averages get closer to the truth, most likely.

One further refinement to that averaging method is to average them all except Rasmussen and Gallup, and take that number. (People doing that show both averages, with and without those.)

Theory is that for whatever reason (well, Rasmussen is a house pollster, Gallup? who knows just disagreeing with every other non-Rasmussen pollster), those two are consistent outliers, so using them in the average skews even the averages too much. </div></div>

The averages put R-money at +7.8.

Soflasnapper
10-07-2012, 10:44 AM
Oddly, Glenn Beck doesn't agree at all.

He has a video of himself with David Barton (I think it is), discussing the current state of the race with regard to the polls (albeit I think a day or so before the debates, so not including that factor).

His take? GOD is letting this get so bad for Romney, no hope in sight, so that when Romney wins, it will very clearly be a miracle from God.

That is, the poll numbers have gotten so bad (as of early October when this was taped) that it will take a miracle of God for Romney to win.

Beck is no enemy of conspiracy theories. He holds many. He certainly has access to the right wing's theories.

If the current lame-brained theory is so far out that even Beck won't bite, it is lame indeed.

Video here (http://freethoughtblogs.com/dispatches/2012/10/04/beck-romney-election-will-be-a-miracle/)

LWW
10-07-2012, 12:25 PM
Rasmussen 10/7/12 ... R-money +2.

Soflasnapper
10-07-2012, 01:01 PM
Yes, and MOE?