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LWW
10-09-2012, 08:13 AM
ZOGBY:

Romney 45.1 Obama 44.5

GALLUP:

Romney 49 Obama 45

RASMUSSEN:

Romney 48 Obama 48

LWW
10-09-2012, 09:53 AM
OHIO:

Romney 49 Obama 48

Soflasnapper
10-09-2012, 11:17 PM
Sure, because being behind by half the margin of error (i.e., not really behind at all based on that evidence) means there is no hope.

Stop your clownin'.

The convention bounce was supposed to be 3 to 5%. Romney didn't get one. This bounce? Less, and why would it last more than a convention bounce? Which goes away historically quite quickly.

These numbers do not reflect the drop of stated UE to below 8%. Later polling that does shows O reclaiming the drops.

If we really had a liberal mainstream media, they'd cook Romney's chances by making his win a tremendous loss, as they did with Al Gore's first debate win. Wait, the liberal mainstream media made Gore's first win a loss? Yes, by the well known too much sighing debate rule they made up.

A true liberal media would eviscerate Romney on 27 lies. You don't have to agree any particular one is a lie. They'd do it anyway. I predict you will not see that.

LWW
10-10-2012, 03:38 AM
Seek help.

Soflasnapper
10-10-2012, 09:30 AM
By that response, you apparently disagree.

But you cannot disagree on substantial grounds, and explain what part you disagree with, and explain why?

Start at the top. Is a 1 point Romney lead, or any lead less than the margin of error, a showing that he's really ahead? That is what is called a statistical tie. You use statistical ties to say it's over?

You use magical 'reasoning' in this case more than normal for you.

LWW
10-10-2012, 01:25 PM
IBD POLL:

Romney 48.5 Obama 43.5

Soflasnapper
10-10-2012, 03:04 PM
IBD????

Sure, and what does The Nation Magazine say???

Take off your red nose and floppy shoes, clown.

LWW
10-10-2012, 05:10 PM
RCP AVERAGE:

ROMNEY +1.5

I'm betting you no longer like that one.

Soflasnapper
10-11-2012, 09:24 AM
Within any of those polls averaged there margins of error, and therefore not a lead, but a tie.

Perhaps you can provide an example where a team that is tied just quit the game because it was hopeless for them, or as your thread title has it, abandoned ship?

The ship abandoning seen so far is little Tim Pawlenty, chairman or co-chair of the Romney team effort, leaving the campaign to cash in as a lobbyist.

LWW
10-11-2012, 09:27 AM
Yet the left insisted it was over when Obama was up by one.

Why do you suppose that is?

LWW
10-11-2012, 09:31 AM
WHO DO YOU TRUST MOST ON THE ECONOMY?

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 43

LWW
10-11-2012, 09:36 AM
IS THE ECNONOMY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN YOUR VOTE?

YES 80%

LWW
10-11-2012, 09:43 AM
FIVE THIRTY EIGHT PROJECTIONS:

ROMNEY +0.5

LWW
10-11-2012, 09:48 AM
PEW RESEARCH:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 45

Soflasnapper
10-11-2012, 03:23 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yet the left insisted it was over when Obama was up by one.

Why do you suppose that is? </div></div>

The LEFT? You still don't know what that word means? Or at least use it promiscuously.

No one on the left or on the Dem side of any stature said anything like that when the O lead was 1. If it was said, it was said about leads of 5+ in the swing states, and an enduring lead in the electoral college projections.

Checking Ohio, the sine qua non state for any Republican gaining the WH in a long time, what do we find, even now?

eg8r
10-12-2012, 08:04 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">No one on the left or on the Dem side of any stature said anything like that when the O lead was 1.</div></div>Actually gaylio was saying it even when she wasn't referring to a poll. She has been saying it since the beginning.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
10-12-2012, 08:45 AM
Sometimes I will sardonically mention the insurmountable 1-0 lead in running 9-ball sets to 7, or the insurmountable 3-0 lead when the Dolphins go up by a field goal early.

These are jokes, of course.

But obviously, if the football game is a one point game as the 4th quarter opens, no team is going to quit because they have no chance.

eg8r
10-12-2012, 09:02 AM
Thank you for having the guts to call gaylio a joke. I wholeheartedly agree.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
10-12-2012, 09:50 AM
I won't thank you for your attempted witticism.

If we're talking pre-game predictions, that someone vehemently claims one side will win isn't shown to be wrong until the horn sounds ending the game. Even if they trail at half-time.

I'm reminded of when the Vince Ferragamo-led (then still) LA Rams were something like 13 point dogs against the Steelers in the Super Bowl. Rams took the lead and had it at half-time. Final score was right on the number, however, and Steeler betters laying that large number of points still won.

LWW
10-14-2012, 04:57 PM
Rasmussen:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47

LWW
10-14-2012, 04:58 PM
Gallup:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47

LWW
10-14-2012, 04:59 PM
Monmouth:

ROMNEY +1

Soflasnapper
10-15-2012, 08:28 AM
RCP Average 10/7 - 10/14 -- -- 47.3 47.3 Tie

As of this morning, 10/15.

That's on LV screened polling. RV screened polling even from the same groups shows O in the lead.

LWW
10-16-2012, 09:55 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">RCP Average 10/7 - 10/14 -- -- 47.3 47.3 Tie

As of this morning, 10/15.

That's on LV screened polling. RV screened polling even from the same groups shows O in the lead. </div></div>

I DENOUNCE ABC NEWS! (http://news.yahoo.com/video/map-changed-mitt-romney-since-080000763.html;_ylt=AroiXIOLY18YqOr8bILT0PhS_tx_;_ ylu=X3oDMTM0dWdkdWhrBG1pdANWaWRlbyBQbGF5IFBhZ2UgUG xheWxpc3QgQmFyBHBrZwNlN2Q0Mjk5YS0zYWEwLTNlNDktYjYx MC02M2QxMzdlMTEyMzcEcG9zAzIEc2VjA01lZGlhUGxheWxpc3 RCYXI-;_ylg=X3oDMTA1bmkzZDc4BHRlc3QD;_ylv=3?pb_list=26b8 970e-9767-4d75-b991-7552a5360c45)

ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:

ROMNEY = 261

OBAMA = 259

LWW
10-16-2012, 03:29 PM
GALLUP:

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 46

Soflasnapper
10-16-2012, 04:39 PM
A little heavy seas, a little taking on water, doesn't call for abandoning the ship. You'd order battle stations, get engineering on plugging the hole, and start bailing.

Romney knows this, or he'd have quit months ago. He's righted his ship by lying to the crew. This may or may not work through to the end.

eg8r
10-16-2012, 04:54 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Romney knows this, or he'd have quit months ago. He's righted his ship by lying to the crew. This may or may not work through to the end. </div></div>That may all be true but you are forgetting to look at the rough seas getting slowing down. All those people that were looking at Romney are starting to look and see the faults of Obama and he is now taking on the water. What did he do about it? Well he shrunk up in a fetal position and sent out his attack dog. LOL, too bad the dog was seen for what he is and the hole never plugged up.

eg8r

Soflasnapper
10-16-2012, 06:37 PM
BS.

This was never a 5% win potential for Obama, but maybe an eked out 2% win. It was only so large a margin for Obama because Myth can't walk his weird walk and talk without figuratively stepping on his own dick.

As Myth cleaned up his act a bit, the race regresses to the mean on the fundamentals, and people draw large unwarranted conclusions.

LWW
10-16-2012, 09:23 PM
USA TODAY/GALLUP:

"Who do you trust most to fix the economy?"

ROMNEY 62 OBAMA 29

That's a big hole in the boat there sailor.

eg8r
10-17-2012, 07:53 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">BS.

This was never a 5% win potential for Obama</div></div>Only in your mind. In the mind of the other lefties on this board it is going to be a landslide.

eg8r

LWW
10-17-2012, 12:05 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">A little heavy seas, a little taking on water, doesn't call for abandoning the ship. You'd order battle stations, get engineering on plugging the hole, and start bailing.

Romney knows this, or he'd have quit months ago. He's righted his ship by lying to the crew. This may or may not work through to the end. </div></div>

GALLUP:

ROMNEY 51 OBAMA 45

LWW
10-18-2012, 04:45 PM
GALLUP:

ROMNEY 52 OBAMA 45

LWW
10-18-2012, 09:36 PM
RCP ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION:

ROMNEY 206 OBAMA 201

Soflasnapper
10-19-2012, 10:22 AM
10.19.2012 11:46 AM
Gallup Getting Lonely

National polls, tracking and otherwise, from the last 24 hours

PPP Obama +1; Rasmussen Tied; Reuters/Ipsos Obama +3; IBD/TIPPP Obama +.5; RAND Obama +5.7; UCONN: Obama +3; Gallup Romney +7;

Details here. (http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12?ref=fpblg)

LWW
10-20-2012, 03:18 PM
Back where the air is thick ...

UNSKEWED POLLS ELECTORAL PROJECTION:

R-MONEY - 342 OBAMA - 196

JUMPING BUTTERBALLS! (http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_01.cfm)

LWW
10-22-2012, 04:41 AM
GALLUP:

ROMNEY 52 OBAMA 45

LWW
10-22-2012, 04:42 AM
RASMUSSEN:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47

LWW
10-22-2012, 04:47 AM
POLITICO:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47

Soflasnapper
10-22-2012, 01:08 PM
Your cherry-picking of individual polling aside, what does the RCP poll average say?

Including Gallup's unique take that even Rasmussen finds over-stated, at +6 Romney, Romney ekes out less than a 1% lead. If Gallup only had the Rasmussen lead for Romney (the NEXT largest pro-Romney poll), the RCP averages would be slightly favoring Obama.

Meaning the polls show a tie that no side can claim says differently. Except you, apparently.

From today:

Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/15 - 10/21 -- -- 47.7 46.9 Romney +0.8
Rasmussen Tracking 10/19 - 10/21 1500 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/18 - 10/21 1402 LV 2.6 48 45 Romney +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 816 LV 3.4 47 47 Tie
Gallup Tracking 10/15 - 10/21 2700 LV 2.0 51 45 Romney +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/16 - 10/21 938 LV 3.5 43 47 Obama +4
WashTimes/JZ Analytics* 10/18 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 47 50 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/18 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Romney +2

LWW
10-22-2012, 01:21 PM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Your cherry-picking of individual polling aside, what does the RCP poll average say? </div></div>

I'm glad you asked ... it says Obama is losing, with the only question being by how much.

The rest of your pst boils down to, condendensed, ... "If you throw out alll the polls where Obama is losing ... HE'S WINNING!"

That, sadly, is how leftist logic works.

It's similar to the manmade GW argument ... "If you exclude everyone who disagrees with Goremon ideology ... YOU HAVE A UNANIMOUS CONSENSUS!"

Soflasnapper
10-22-2012, 05:57 PM
You end badly, as you began, in this post.

Only the paid skeptics and those confused by them say a consensus is unanimous. Most consensus is not unanimous at all, but at supermajority levels, say starting at a 60% level and up. Apparently the consensus on AGW is above the 60% level, perhaps at the 90% level, and if we go by peer-reviewed published articles, at a 95% level. It's the other side that commits the intellectual fraud of claiming if 5% or 10% do not agree, then obviously that means there is no consensus. False.

Just as I certainly did not ask for all the polling showing Romney up at this time to be eliminated. As I said, if you trim Gallup (that's one poll) back to what Rasmussen has (whom you have always supported as the most accurate, iirc), leaving ALL the other Romney's-ahead-polling as it is, THEN Obama is up.

Fractions of 1% leads are not leads, nor really are the 1% or 2% showings, when they are within the MOE.

As you may know, both Rasmussen and Gallup got 2010 wrong. Gallup said the GOP had a 15% margin, and they got 8% or so (as all the other polling had indicated it would turn out). Rasmussen missed one Hawaii race by over 30%. (Psst! They DO NOT CALL CELL PHONES.)

LWW
10-23-2012, 08:37 AM
RASMUSSEN:

GENERAL ELECTION:

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 46

ELECTORAL PROJECTION:

ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 237

REMAINING SWING STATES:

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 45

LWW
10-23-2012, 08:54 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body">As you may know, both Rasmussen and Gallup got 2010 wrong. Gallup said the GOP had a 15% margin, and they got 8% or so (as all the other polling had indicated it would turn out). Rasmussen missed one Hawaii race by over 30%. (Psst! They DO NOT CALL CELL PHONES.)

</div></div>

Actually ... RASMUSSEN projected the demokrooks to lose 55 house seats in 2010, in fact they lost 60.

LWW
10-23-2012, 07:41 PM
CNN BATTLEGROUND STATES:

ROMNEY 51 OBAMA 43

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:38 AM
POLITICO ... ROMNEY +2

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:38 AM
GWU ... ROMNEY +2

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:40 AM
MONMOUTH ... ROMNEY +3

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:41 AM
SURVEY USA ... ROMNEY +3

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:42 AM
BRAUN ... ROMNEY +3

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:42 AM
ABC ... ROMNEY +1

LWW
10-24-2012, 03:43 AM
WASHINGTON POST ... ROMNEY +1

LWW
10-24-2012, 09:29 AM
GALLUP:

ROMNEY 51 OBAMA 46

LWW
10-24-2012, 09:30 AM
RASMUSSEN:

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 46

LWW
10-25-2012, 07:30 AM
Michigan:

TIED

LWW
10-25-2012, 07:33 AM
Ohio:

TIED

LWW
10-25-2012, 07:55 AM
RASMUSSEN:

ROMNEY 50 OBAMA 47

LWW
10-26-2012, 01:56 PM
GALLUP:

ROMNEY 51 OBAMA 46

LWW
10-26-2012, 01:57 PM
WISCONSIN:

ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 49