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eg8r
10-25-2012, 08:00 AM
Analysis election factors points romney win (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says)

http://sayanythingblog.com/files/2012/09/electoral-college-png1-300x192.jpg

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
</div></div>This is all guess work but they have been pretty successful as of late. Only a few weeks till we know for sure.

Gayle in MD
10-25-2012, 09:18 AM
Can't resist this one!

October 4th?

LMAO!

eg8r
10-25-2012, 11:19 AM
LOL, so you say you never read my posts yet here you prove not only do you read them but when you have no idea what the subject is you decide to prove you are clueless. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif Thanks for the laugh.

eg8r

Gayle in MD
10-25-2012, 11:31 AM
You know nothing about elections, or polls.

Using polling figures as old as October 4th, is a joke!

Apparently you didn't even bother checking to see how old they were.

The only reason why I bothered with this post of yours was because I thought there might be something in it worthwhile, like new polling numbers, since Colorado is probably the state that will keep the country up all night, and then, only if Romney wins at least four to five other battleground states, lol.

Shoudda known better. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/grin.gif

Back to ignore...

G.

eg8r
10-25-2012, 11:36 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">You know nothing about elections, or polls.

Using polling figures as old as October 4th, is a joke!</div></div>LOL, I knew you did not know anything about the subject. Thanks though for proving me right yet again.

I thought you were better than honduh but you prove yet again that is not true.

eg8r

LWW
10-25-2012, 12:19 PM
She's right ... that projection is outdated, the most recent is today's and it shows Obama much farther behind.

cushioncrawler
10-25-2012, 03:37 PM
mac's prediktion.
Gridlock in 2012.
Gridlock in 2016.
Gridlock in 2020.
Gridlock in 2024.
Gridlock in 2028.
Gridlock in 2032.
Gridlock in 2036.
Gridlock in 2040.
Gridlock in 2044.
etc etc etc etc.

Unless praps a 3rd party arizes.
I woz impressed with the Constitution Party. But what theusofa needs iz a Greens Party.
mac.

eg8r
10-25-2012, 09:59 PM
Gridlock all the way. It is funny that the Dems say the Reps were blocking everything but yet fail to acknowledge that they had also drew their own line in the sand and were unwilling to budge.

eg8r

Gayle in MD
10-26-2012, 05:17 AM
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cushioncrawler</div><div class="ubbcode-body">mac's prediktion.
Gridlock in 2012.
Gridlock in 2016.
Gridlock in 2020.
Gridlock in 2024.
Gridlock in 2028.
Gridlock in 2032.
Gridlock in 2036.
Gridlock in 2040.
Gridlock in 2044.
etc etc etc etc.

Unless praps a 3rd party arizes.
I woz impressed with the Constitution Party. But what theusofa needs iz a Greens Party.
mac. </div></div>

Mac,
Are you addressing the election, or the political gridlock in congress?

Either way, in this election the only reasonable way to tally things up is to go state by state. The National Polling data, isn't as important as averaging the odds by looking at the numbers state by state.

IMO, "Intrade" predictions are the best, they correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in the last election, and had the president at 59% likely winner in Ohio yesterday, and pushed it up to 63% this morning.

Obama only has to win Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and Romney won't have a shot in hell to win. Obama has remained in front in those states throughout.

Even if the President ONLY wins Ohio, Romney would face a very, very tough lift in order to get to 270 electoral Votes.


Additionally, for the first time I am seeing polling data that shows the majority of Americans think the economy is improving, which, IMO, it surely is, and for the first time in four years more of them are saying they are better off than they were four years ago.

G.