Patrick

11-18-2002, 03:40 AM

Playing pool tournaments is like playing in the casino or gambling, you play with the odds. The biggest reason why people play tournaments is to make money, and you won't make any money if your percentage of winning and getting into the money is greater than 50%. If you need to win 4 matches in a row to get your money back (from travel expenses and such), and every match is a 50% chance of winning, then your chance is 1 in 16, so you win your money back once every 16 tournaments. That is a big waste of time and money.

For example on Euro Tour in a tournament with 128 players, you need to win 8 straight matches to win the tournament (double elimination). Then if you have 50% chance per match, the chance of winning is only 1 in 256 (0.39%). First price on Euro Tour is only $3000 and the travel expenses are around $1000. So you win only 3 times your bet, and the chance to win is 1 in 256, not very smart.

Lets look at what your winning percentage must be in order to make a profit on Euro Tour. 2nd price on Euro Tour is $2300, that is little more than twice what your bet was. So winning 7 matches in a row should be 50% chance to make a good profit. If your winning percentage of every match is 90%, then winning 7 matches in a row is 47.8% chance. Winning 8 matches and the entire tournament is 43% chance. So in a year you only make about $2000 if you are the best player on Euro Tour. The best player on Euro Tour is Ralf Souquet, he wins an average of 5.33 matches every tournament. So he has about 87.3% average chance to win a match.

Only 14 players on Euro Tour have played every tournament in the last 6 tournaments, the others play to get experience and with a chance to play with better players. The reason why there are 128 players in a tournament is because of about half of them are from the same country so it is very cheap to attend the tournament. And most of them are A or B players who want to play with the best players just for fun. There are currently 458 players on the Euro Tour ranking list. The top 32 players play to get qualified to the world championships. The rest just play for fun in maybe 1 or 2 tournaments, but they can't afford to play anymore so they quit.

Even if you make a profit from tournaments, it is still a waste of time. Then how about showing your skill to others and get famous? It doesn't matter, you will still have the same skill if you don't show it, the skill doesn't change if you play tournaments or not. Many athletes have wasted their life trying to prove others that they can win the world championships. Look what happened to Jimmy White, he has tried for 2 decades trying to win the world championships and he got 2nd six times. Why play tournaments if you know the odds already? If you know how big chance you have to win the tournament, then why do it? You already know what will happen. If you don't care about the money, then it will all be a waste of time. You can play tournaments if you enjoy doing it and like the pressure, but other than that there is no reason why you should play tournaments. It is better to improve your skills, and when you don't improve any further, start improving your skills in another sport. Instead of practicing for 5 years and playing tournaments for 10 years, you could have mastered 3 different sports! Wouldn't it be good to go for the odds after those 15 years and if you are lucky you win the world championships in 3 different sports.

The dangers of playing tournaments too early

A big waste of time and money is to play tournaments if you have not reached a high skill level, you will waste a lot of money with bad odds, it is better to wait until your odds are higher. I wouldn't recommend to seriously start playing tournaments until you have reached your potential or close to it, otherwise your skill development will get stalled. You are trying to add your different pool skills together too early when they are not developed well enough, and then your potential will not get as high. You can't change your game when playing tournaments either because there is too little time, and when you change your game you will get into a slump. If you play for 3 years instead of 5 that you needed, then you play tournaments for 10 years with bad odds and without the chance of improving your skill much. But if you instead would have developed your skills for an extra 2 years, your skills will be better than if you had chosen the 13 year path. If you started playing tournaments too early and continue for many years with the same stance and stroke, then it will be difficult to learn another better technique and it will take many years until the bad habits are gone.

Patrick

For example on Euro Tour in a tournament with 128 players, you need to win 8 straight matches to win the tournament (double elimination). Then if you have 50% chance per match, the chance of winning is only 1 in 256 (0.39%). First price on Euro Tour is only $3000 and the travel expenses are around $1000. So you win only 3 times your bet, and the chance to win is 1 in 256, not very smart.

Lets look at what your winning percentage must be in order to make a profit on Euro Tour. 2nd price on Euro Tour is $2300, that is little more than twice what your bet was. So winning 7 matches in a row should be 50% chance to make a good profit. If your winning percentage of every match is 90%, then winning 7 matches in a row is 47.8% chance. Winning 8 matches and the entire tournament is 43% chance. So in a year you only make about $2000 if you are the best player on Euro Tour. The best player on Euro Tour is Ralf Souquet, he wins an average of 5.33 matches every tournament. So he has about 87.3% average chance to win a match.

Only 14 players on Euro Tour have played every tournament in the last 6 tournaments, the others play to get experience and with a chance to play with better players. The reason why there are 128 players in a tournament is because of about half of them are from the same country so it is very cheap to attend the tournament. And most of them are A or B players who want to play with the best players just for fun. There are currently 458 players on the Euro Tour ranking list. The top 32 players play to get qualified to the world championships. The rest just play for fun in maybe 1 or 2 tournaments, but they can't afford to play anymore so they quit.

Even if you make a profit from tournaments, it is still a waste of time. Then how about showing your skill to others and get famous? It doesn't matter, you will still have the same skill if you don't show it, the skill doesn't change if you play tournaments or not. Many athletes have wasted their life trying to prove others that they can win the world championships. Look what happened to Jimmy White, he has tried for 2 decades trying to win the world championships and he got 2nd six times. Why play tournaments if you know the odds already? If you know how big chance you have to win the tournament, then why do it? You already know what will happen. If you don't care about the money, then it will all be a waste of time. You can play tournaments if you enjoy doing it and like the pressure, but other than that there is no reason why you should play tournaments. It is better to improve your skills, and when you don't improve any further, start improving your skills in another sport. Instead of practicing for 5 years and playing tournaments for 10 years, you could have mastered 3 different sports! Wouldn't it be good to go for the odds after those 15 years and if you are lucky you win the world championships in 3 different sports.

The dangers of playing tournaments too early

A big waste of time and money is to play tournaments if you have not reached a high skill level, you will waste a lot of money with bad odds, it is better to wait until your odds are higher. I wouldn't recommend to seriously start playing tournaments until you have reached your potential or close to it, otherwise your skill development will get stalled. You are trying to add your different pool skills together too early when they are not developed well enough, and then your potential will not get as high. You can't change your game when playing tournaments either because there is too little time, and when you change your game you will get into a slump. If you play for 3 years instead of 5 that you needed, then you play tournaments for 10 years with bad odds and without the chance of improving your skill much. But if you instead would have developed your skills for an extra 2 years, your skills will be better than if you had chosen the 13 year path. If you started playing tournaments too early and continue for many years with the same stance and stroke, then it will be difficult to learn another better technique and it will take many years until the bad habits are gone.

Patrick